As large protest movements, the JP movement (1974-75) and the anti-corruption movement (2011-13) stand out as good precedents to compare the Cockroach movement.The Cockroach movement is much more unorganised than the other two and relies more on spontaneity and suppressed anxieties. It’s also less nationally spread out – though its reverberations may now be felt beyond.In [the] JP movement, there was a slow but sure coming together of constitutional forces and those who always wanted to subvert [the] Constitution. It was also a combination of conservative + rightist forces and progressive + left-of-centre forces.The anti-corruption movement began with a suspect leader; was joined by contradictory forces, as in the case of JP movement, but was easily taken over by subversive forces that aimed at pushing back constitutional democracy.As a result, the JP movement ended up only defeating the government but not producing much except facilitating the entry of anti-constitution forces into state power.In contrast, the anti-corruption movement by far has been a ‘most effective’ movement – it facilitated change of regime.Where will the Cockroach movement go? Perhaps nowhere – it will allow venting of frustration and taper off. Like the farmers’ protests, it may win some, but lose steam over time.The ideological and political character of the Cockroach movement is currently fluid and various forces are bound to piggyback on it. The leaders and participants have so far sworn by the Constitution.Though the youth were the centre of much attention and hope on earlier two occasions, it would be a mistake to imagine a youth movement or a GenZ movement – these are only convenient myths for commentators.The young have shown the angst and their disgust. They have borne the brunt of democratic government’s brutal police. They have also shown that only street action makes this regime feign the acts of listening and talking.But to configure itself into a protest movement of long term political reckoning will require many pieces to fall in place.Short-term hurdles: Sheer brutality. Systematic state repression is uncomparable to the past two movements. Media blackout and/or distortion. Mid-term hurdles: Dragged negotiations. Allegations of being anti-national. Criticism for collaborating with the Opposition.Long-term hurdles: Exhaustion of patience and radical romanticism. Waylaying of already loose leadership. Running out of a dynamic imagination about goals. Lack of broad social coalitionThe task of confronting a regime is different from opposing the government. The task of regime reform is tough. The task of regime change is a project running beyond one generation.The Cockroach movement has made a beginning. We don’t know if it will sustain. July 20 has drawn attention to maladies, challenges and possibilities. It’s up to the opposition and three social forces – media, the network of trade-business-industry-finance and the culture industry.Suhas Palshikar taught political science at the Savitribai Phule Pune University, Pune. The piece is a reproduction of an X thread by the author. It has been lightly edited for style.