New Delhi: Billed as a close contest in the backdrop of the wafer-thin margin of the 2020 assembly elections, the 2025 Bihar polls have seen the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) surge ahead and win 202 seats in the 243-seat assembly, with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) emerging as the single largest party.Its alliance partner, the Janata Dal (United) (JD(U)), which contested the elections under the shadow of a diminutive chief minister Nitish Kumar who was seemingly battling ill health and sought to be sidelined by the saffron party, has also scripted a comeback in the state, defying 20 years of anti-incumbency.The BJP, which won 74 seats in 2020, improved its tally to win 89 seats. The JD(U) on the other hand has almost doubled its tally from the previous election and won 85 seats against the 43 that it won in 2020.Among the NDA’s smaller alliance partners, the Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) (LJP (RV)) won 19 seats, the Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular) (HAM) won five and the Rashtriya Lok Morcha (RLM) won four seats.The Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), which was the single largest party in the 2020 elections, has been reduced to just 25 seats. Its alliance partners in the Mahagathbandhan have been reduced to the single digits, with the Congress winning only six seats, the Communist Party of India (CPI) (Marxist-Leninist) Liberation winning two and the Communist Party of India (Marxist) winning one.Their new allies, the Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP) and the Indian Inclusive Party on the other hand have failed to win a single seat.The results are a sharp contrast to the 2020 Bihar assembly elections. While the BJP and the RJD won 74 and 75 seats respectively, the vote share margin between the two was a mere 0.03%.Here are six key takeaways from the 2025 Bihar assembly election results.1. BJP emerges as the single largest party in Bihar for the first timeIn the 2025 elections, the BJP and the JD(U) contested an equal number of seats each – 101 – for the first time. While the BJP has cemented itself in other Hindi heartland states, including Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan, it has not contested elections on its own in Bihar.In the 2020 assembly elections, the BJP won 74 seats but fell short of becoming the single largest party. However, in the 2025 elections, with 89 seats it surged ahead of the JD(U) for the second consecutive election.In 2020, the BJP and the JD(U) formed a formidable alliance on paper, with the former’s traditional support from largely ‘upper’ caste communities and Nitish’s support from extremely backward class (EBC) groups. But Nitish’s support among EBC and Dalit groups was eroded by Chirag Paswan’s LJP (RV), which contested independently and fielded candidates to take on the JD(U), reducing the latter’s tally to just 43 seats.In this election, the BJP sought to settle seat sharing agreements between its alliance partners early despite the differences that had cropped up. Paswan’s LJP (RV) was brought on board to contest an assembly election with the JD(U) for the first time, along with Upendra Kushwaha’s RLM and Jitan Ram Manjhi’s HAM, to form a rainbow coalition of caste groups.2. Nitish not outIn Nitish’s homeground of Harnaut, a JD(U) worker said to The Wire: “Nitish Kumar mukhyamantri the, hai aur rahenge. [Nitish Kumar was, is and will be chief minister and there is no doubt about it].”Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s road show in Patna during the Bihar campaign may have left Nitish out, but the JD(U) leader has defied 20 years of anti-incumbency and almost doubled his party’s tally from the 2020 elections by winning 85 seats.In the 2020 elections the JD(U) was reduced to just 43 seats. The party improved its performance in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, becoming a key coalition partner for the BJP in New Delhi when the saffron party was unable to secure a majority on its own with 240 seats.The 2025 Bihar elections saw the BJP unwilling to declare Nitish as the NDA’s chief ministerial candidate. No joint rallies were held with Nitish and even the press conference to release the alliance’s manifesto lasted only 26 seconds, with the chief minister not speaking a word.With his future hanging in the balance, amid concerns around his health and Union home minister Amit Shah setting the cat among the pigeons by stating the next chief minister will be elected by MLAs after the elections, Nitish has once again proved that he holds enduring appeal.3. RJD’s worst performance in a decadeThe 2025 elections witnessed the RJD’s worst performance in a decade, with the party winning only 25 seats, as against 75 in 2020 and 80 in 2015.While Tejashwi Yadav was made the alliance’s chief ministerial face, the RJD struggled to battle the narrative of “jungle raj” that was played up by the BJP to remind voters of the alleged lawlessness during Lalu Prasad Yadav’s tenure as chief minister.In rally after rally, the BJP reminded voters that a vote for the RJD would result in a return to “jungle raj” while one for the NDA would lead to the development of the state.Tejashwi had crafted his campaign around unemployment, distress migration and jobs, and focused on the youth to be a moving force for the alliance in this election. The Wire has reported that his promise of a government job to every family in Bihar, while highlighting the unemployment crisis in the country’s poorest state, only divided young voters, many of whom found the promise unrealistic.In its ticket distribution too, the party focussed on its traditional voter base and gave 35% of its tickets to Yadavs despite its campaigns about social representation.4. Friendly fights and weak Congress becomes weakerIn the 2020 elections, while the RJD had emerged as the single largest party and was buoyed by the performance of its alliance partners in the Left parties, it was the Congress that proved to be the weakest link as it won only 19 of the 70 seats it contested.The 2025 elections were marred by hard bargaining for seats by the grand old party, which ultimately settled for 61 seats in the alliance. However the party failed to improve upon its performance and won only six seats.The opposition Mahagathbandhan was unable to iron out its differences in the seat-sharing arrangements, resulting in friendly fights where alliance partners contested against each other in 11 seats. The Congress was locked in a fight against its alliance partner RJD in five seats and the CPI in four seats.Of these five friendly fights between the Congress and the RJD, the JD(U) won three – Vaishali, Kahalgaon and Sultanganj – the BJP won Narkatiaganj and the HAM won Sikandra.Of the four friendly fights between the Congress and the CPI, the BJP won Bachhwara and Biharsharif, while the JD(U) won Rajapakar and Kargahar.In addition, while the Congress had built momentum in the state ahead of the elections with the Voter Adhikar Yatra in the aftermath of the special intensive revision, the party was not seen campaigning in the state after it ended.Amid roadblocks in seat sharing arrangements, it was only after senior Congress leader and former Rajasthan chief minister Ashok Gehlot landed in Patna that Tejashwi was declared the chief ministerial face and the two parties began joint rallies in an apparent show of unity.By then, crucial campaigning time was lost and friction within the alliance out in the open.5. Owaisi factor and the lack of Muslim leadershipWhile both the RJD and the Congress have derived much of their support in Bihar from Muslims, who comprise 17.7% of the state’s population, their failure to cultivate Muslim leadership and provide representation has cost the Mahagathbandhan in the 2025 elections, with the alliance ceding space to Asaduddin Owaisi’s All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM).The four border districts in Seemanchal – Purnea, Kishanganj, Araria and Katihar – together account for the state’s largest Muslim population.In the 2020 elections, the AIMIM won five seats: Amour, Baisi, Bahadurganj, Kochadhaman and Jokihat in north Bihar’s Seemanchal. In 2022, four of the five AIMIM MLAs joined the RJD. This included Muhammed Izhar Asfi (Kochadhaman), Shahnawaz Alam (Jokihat), Syed Ruknuddin (Baisi) and Azhar Nayeemi (Bahadurgunj).Despite this, in the 2025 elections, the AIMIM has once again won these five seats.In his campaign, Owaisi, in a bid to woo Muslim voters who have aligned with the Congress-RJD, hit out at the alliance for elevating VIP chief Mukesh Sahani, who represents the Mallah community, as its deputy chief ministerial face but not naming a Muslim despite the community’s share in the state’s population. He also hit out at the lack of Muslim representation in the Mahagathbandhan alliance.In terms of candidates, the Mahagathbandhan fielded 31 Muslims, of which 19 were by the RJD, ten by the Congress and two by the CPI (Marxist-Leninist) Liberation.The Wire has reported that his words enthused young Muslims in Seemanchal, who said that new Muslim leadership has become essential.6. Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj remains no-showPolitical consultant-turned-politician Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party (JSP) proved to be a no-show in this election despite a glitzy campaign that was high on decibels, especially on social media. While the party contested in 238 of the state’s 243 seats, it failed to open its account in the final tally.While the party was launched following a three-year padyatra in which Kishor visited 5,000 villages in the state, this seems to have paid no dividends for the JSP in its first outing.Although there was speculation over which alliance would be hurt by the JSP, the party has not even featured in the Election Commission’s vote share chart, with the contest being restricted to a direct fight between the NDA and the Mahagathbandhan. The JSP was not even able to play spoiler.