This article was first published on The India Cable – a premium newsletter from The Wire & Galileo Ideas – and has been republished here. To subscribe to The India Cable, click here.Mumbai: The two Shiv Senas – the original Uddhav Thackeray one and the breakaway Eknath Shinde group – are gearing up for their first electoral battle on November 3. Since Shinde broke away with 48 MLAs, bringing down the Maha Vikas Aghadi coalition government of the Sena, Sharad Pawar’s Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) and the Congress.So far, the two have only crossed swords in court as Thackeray, whose father founded the party, asked the Supreme Court to stay the Election Commission from deciding which is the ‘real’ Sena. The move was to stall the party’s old symbol, the bow and arrow. The court turned down the petition, but the EC has frozen the symbol and given the Thackeray group the mashal and the Shinde group, two swords and a shield, which Shinde quickly said represented not just Shivaji but also Maharashtra; presumably, he means the symbol harks back to the Sena’s aggressive and violent past.Both parties have new names – Thackeray’s will be ‘Shiv Sena Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray’ and Shinde will be ‘Balasahebchi Shiv Sena’ – and both want to be seen as the real heirs of Bal Thackeray. “Finally, the victory of the strong Hindutva views of Shiv Sena chief Balasaheb Thackeray. We are the inheritors of Balasaheb’s thoughts”.The reaction of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which is partnering with the Shinde faction in this emphatic claim to Hindutva, is not known.Also read: EC Allots ‘Two Swords and a Shield’ as Poll Symbol to Shinde Faction of Shiv SenaBoth Thackeray and Shinde claimed to be satisfied with the EC’s decisions on the symbols and nomenclature, though the latter still would like the bow and arrow, which would seal its claim to be the real Sena. This will be crucial for the civic elections soon after – both parties and the BJP will want a majority in the rich Municipal Corporation, which gives out lucrative contracts.But Thackeray and Shinde also face other challenges. Shinde’s defection has crippled Uddhav Thackeray, who was swimming along comfortably earlier. That it was a BJP-sponsored operation became immediately clear because the Shinde camp was kept in BJP-run states like Gujarat, Goa and distant Assam, ensconced in comfortable hotels and plied with food and drink.Uddhav, who is struggling to hold on to a few loyalists, now has to rebuild the party, even as he faces the prospect of more defections and a loss of ground support. In addition, Shinde and the BJP, armed with money and media support, will spare no effort to undermine him. If he loses the civic elections, he will further lose credibility and power. It is a battle for survival.Not that Shinde can feel sanguine even if Uddhav Thackeray struggles. He has to worry about his partner, the BJP, which wants to establish its hegemony in Maharashtra and become the only political party in the state. It has struggled to win a majority in the rich state ― Mumbai, the financial hub, has all the big company HQs ― and can do so only by finishing off the Shiv Sena, which dominates the city. An alliance with the Sena is the temporary route to that goal, because on its own the BJP will find it difficult to win the state.Also read: With BJP Threatening a Repeat of Maharashtra, Are KCR’s Days Numbered?Its previous governments, in 1995 and in 2014, were formed with the Sena, except that it switched from being a junior partner in the first instance to the senior one in the latter, thanks to the national Modi wave. In 2019, however, the wave did not have so much power and the number of seats came down; the Shiv Sena, under Uddhav Thackeray, was never comfortable in the alliance and sprung a surprise by forming a three-party coalition, though Devendra Fadnavis tried an unseemly stunt by getting himself sworn in as chief minister, along with Ajit Pawar as his deputy at 5 am at the governor’s residence. That ‘government’ failed in three days, and Thackeray was sworn in, properly, as chief minister.Smarting, the BJP managed to extricate Shinde from the Sena, but the ultimate objective is to decimate the party and emerge on top. Shinde would know that but he – and the others who defected – may have been left with no other option but to break away. Now, Shinde is seeing the net results of this suffocating embrace.Already Fadnavis, who was pushed by his party bosses to become deputy chief minister under Shinde, has bagged all the major portfolios – home, finance and housing. He speaks on almost everything on behalf of the government. Shinde has to keep consulting Amit Shah and in public hails Narendra Modi and Shah constantly – Thackeray called it reading the “Modi-Shah chalisa”.From under his nose, a $20 billion dollar investment of Foxconn was taken away from Maharashtra and given to Gujarat, Modi and Shah’s home state. All he could do was to feebly protest.For the moment, both Senas are concentrating on the Andheri by-elections, after which the Municipal Corporation elections will become the focus. If the Thackeray camp does poorly, it will lose credibility; Shinde must ensure that the BJP doesn’t demand too big a pound of flesh and then, win or lose, find ways to keep Big Brother at bay. These are difficult times for the Shiv Senas.