Mumbai: The political focus in Maharashtra that was constantly around the Thackerays for the last one year has suddenly shifted to the Pawars. One question that is doing the rounds in the political corridors is – what is on their mind? Not just Sharad Pawar but also the nephew, Ajit. The statements by uncle and nephew are anything but routine – they are politically loaded.The first obvious perception created was about Sharad Pawar cosying up to the BJP. The Maratha strongman defended Adani, took a different stand on the Joint Parliamentary Committee (JPC), and called the prime minister’s degree controversy a non-issue. This is not the first time that Pawar has taken a stand that helps the ruling BJP or the PM. In September 2018, when Rahul Gandhi went hammer and tongs against the PM over the Rafale deal, Pawar’s statement that the PM’s integrity could not be questioned had stumped the Congress. The Adani statement is giving everyone a sense of deja vu.Nephew Ajit is towing Senior Pawar’s line by his statements over the Adani issue, the PM’s degree controversy and EVMs. By taking a completely different stand from their allies in the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), the narrative of NCP and the Pawars being politically unreliable has yet again surfaced. But the biggest question haunting many is that whether Ajit Pawar is trying to repeat his adventure of November 2019 – when he secretly took a pre-dawn oath of office with Devendra Fadnavis. The rumour mills went crazy after Ajit suddenly disappeared last week, cancelling all his engagements. Ajit has an infamous history of going incommunicado whenever he is upset with the party. Speculations rose further after social activist Anjali Damania tweeted that the Supreme Court verdict, which is due anytime, will result in the disqualification of Shinde and 15 other MLAs. As plan B, Ajit Pawar with 15 NCP MLAs will join hands with the BJP.Amid all that, the biggest question that came to the fore was whether the Pawars are speaking in unison to find an exit route from the MVA coalition and inch closer to the BJP? The present political situation in Maharashtra and the anticipation of the Supreme Court verdict seems to be the main reason behind why the Pawar uncle and nephew duo are ruffling many feathers.To understand what is on the minds of the Pawars, one need to see it through three perspectives: Sharad Pawar’s, Ajit Pawar’s and the NCP’s.First, Sharad Pawar’s moves are perhaps triggered by the anticipation of Supreme Court verdict on the Maharashtra political crisis. If the verdict is in MVA’s favour, i.e. if Shinde and his MLAs are disqualified, it may lead to political turmoil in the state. The BJP may try to poach a similar number of MLAs to stay in power. Given his resentment against the NCP for years, Ajit Pawar is an obvious target. If the nephew decides to stage another coup, it may lead to a situation which could be very similar to what happened with Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena. Ajit enjoys the support of a large number of party MLAs. By taking a stand that would please the BJP in the Adani case or the JPC or the PM’s degree, Pawar is trying to send feelers to the BJP to avoid any ‘surgical strike’.Also, like Ramvilas Paswan, Sharad Pawar too is known to gauge the political weather. Ahead of the 2024 general elections, he will try to be equidistant from the BJP and opposition, and keep all his options open. Not to forget that recently, Pawar’s NCP extended its support to the government in Nagaland, of which the BJP is also a part. Sharad’s politics have been left of centre. His daughter Supriya too aligns herself with the opposition. But Ajit Pawar believes in the practical aspects of politics. Ajit’s stand in a way also helps Sharad, in keeping the threat of a coup in the party alive and thereby maintaining closeness to both the opposition and BJP.Looking at it from Ajit Pawar’s point of view, there are multiple reasons why he would be restless and rebellious. After the failed coup in 2019, Ajit has been marginalised in the party. With state party president Jayant Patil calling all the shots and Supriya Sule at the helm, 63-year-old Ajit is waiting for his opportunity to lead the party, an ambition of his for a long time.During the 36-day power struggle in Maharashtra in 2019, it was Ajit (and Praful Patel) who insisted on going with the BJP rather than the Congress and Shiv Sena. Ajit’s close aides often say that the nephew is fed up of being the constant deputy. That is also the reason why Ajit has been seen going soft on the BJP or the Shinde-Fadnavis govt. His camaraderie with Devendra Fadnavis has always been a topic of discussion in the state’s politics. Moreover, Ajit is well aware that within the MVA, it is Uddhav Thackeray who is calling the shots now. Riding high on a sympathy wave, Uddhav’s popularity has soared after he quit as the chief minister. If the MVA contests together and wins a majority, Uddhav may again possibly become the chief minister, leaving the deputy position yet again for Ajit.But what is perhaps bothering Ajit more, is the sword of inquiries that is constantly hanging on his head. Recently Ajit’s name was dropped from the MSC bank scam FIR. Last week the Enforcement Directorate filed a chargesheet in the Maharashtra State Cooperative (MSC) Bank scam. The ED had earlier attached properties linked to Ajit and his wife Sunetra. Even though his name has been dropped, possibility of a supplementary chargesheet looms large.The NCP has its own point of view – it has to think of its own future. The Pawars want to keep themselves not just relevant but also in a commanding position in the state as well as national politics. As mentioned earlier, Uddhav Thackeray’s growing popularity is also a cause of concern. In 2019, the NCP had easily acceded to the Sena’s demand for the chief minister’s post. In 2024, with the MVA looking strong at this point in time, the NCP would like to bargain for the post.A section in the MVA believes that the statements by both Sharad Pawar and Ajit Pawar are well orchestrated. Senior Pawar may be in a position to bargain more with the Shiv Sena (UBT) in lieu of the constant threat of a coup by Ajit. A split in the party would not damage just the NCP but would also badly affect the MVA. Moreover, the flash bonhomie between Uddhav Thackeray and Devendra Fadnavis has left the NCP wondering. The much-hyped ‘walk’ that Fadnavis and Thackeray took together recently inside the Maharashtra legislature premises left many wondering. Even though Shinde has got party symbol and name, it hasn’t affected Uddhav’s popularity. A faction of the BJP wants lines of communication reopened with the Uddhav’s Sena. Although Uddhav says that things with the BJP have gone beyond a point of no return, the possibility of a reconciliation will seriously affected the NCP’s future prospects. Before the Uddhav faction inches closer to the BJP, the NCP too has started to flirt with the BJP. The move in Nagaland was perhaps the first such step. For now, things between Uddhav and Fadnavis are strained again – the situation is clearly fluid.The Pawars are known for keeping their cards close to their chest. During the 2019 political drama, Sharad was leading the talks of an alliance between the Congress, Shiv Sena and NCP. At the same time, he also directed party leaders to keep communication lines open with the BJP. And not to forget what Devendra Fadnavis claimed a few months ago: “The coup of 2019 and the early morning swearing-in had Sharad Pawar’s blessings.”The moves that uncle and nephew make over the next few days will bear watching.Kamlesh Damodar Sutar is the Managing Editor of LokShahi Marathi News Channel, Mumbai. He is an author of 36 Days, a book on the 2019 political drama in Maharashtra. He tweets at @kamleshsutar.