Bhubaneswar: Threat of horse trading looms large over the upcoming Rajya Sabha elections in Odisha with former Union minister and Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) leader Dilip Ray entering the fray as an independent candidate.The hotelier-turned-politician, who held several portfolios in the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) Union ministries between 1996 and 2000, is banking on “conscience votes,” a euphemism widely used to justify cross-voting in Rajya Sabha polls. “ I expect conscience voting in my favour,” the former Union minister, who filed his nomination papers on Thursday, told a private news channel.Ray, a veteran of Odisha politics who began his career under the tutelage of former chief minister Biju Patnaik, father of Biju Janata Dal (BJD) supremo Naveen Patnaik, has also sought to invoke the Biju legacy in a bid to garner the support of followers of Biju Babu still active in different political parties of the state.Though Ray, who filed his nomination papers along with BJP’s two official candidates – state party president Manmohan Samal and Sujeet Kumar – is keeping his cards close to the chest, political observers do not rule out a repeat of 2002 Rajya Sabha elections when Ray won as an independent solely on the strength of cross-voting with bulk of his votes coming from BJD, the party which had suspended him for defying its diktat and contesting as an independent.Even though Rajya Sabha voting in those days used to be through secret ballot, the rebel BJD MLAs who voted for Ray were easily identified as they made no bones about their preference for him. However, party president Naveen Patnaik, who was also the chief minister, refrained from taking action against them for the fear of causing a split in the party.“He is an immensely resourceful person who can turn things in his favour. Besides he has full support of BJP,” said eminent political analyst Bishnu Charan Choudhary.Ray himself has been exuding confidence about his victory, hoping to draw support from all the parties. “Had I not been confident I would not have entered the fray. I will appeal to every party to support me,” he said, while making it clear that there was a difference between his 2002 Rajya Sabha contest and the battle this time.“That time I had nearly two months to prepare. This time the decision was sudden with very little time to prepare but I will do my best,” he averred.Going by the current numerical strength of various parties in the 147-member Odisha assembly, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) with 79 MLAs of its own and the support of three independents is certain to win two of the four seats at stake in the March 16 polls as each candidate requires 30 first preference votes for an outright victory.The BJP has fielded its state unit president Manmohan Samal and sitting Rajya Sabha member Sujeet Kumar, whose term expires in April, as its official candidates and remains confident about both of them making it home with ease.On the other hand BJD, Odisha’s most successful regional party till date, has 50 MLAs in the House but its effective strength has been reduced to 48 following the suspension of two of its members for alleged anti-party activities.The party would, thus, hopes to get its official candidate Santrupta Mishra, a corporate honcho-turned-politician, over the line without any hiccups. But the BJD, which should have 18 first preference votes left after accounting for Mishra’s candidature, has also fielded well known urologist Dr. Datteswar Hota as a common candidate.Hota’s prospects appeared to have brightened with Congress, which has 14 MLAs in the state assembly, openly offering its support for him to prevent possible horse trading in the biennial polls. The lone CPI(M) MLA Laxman Munda is also expected to vote for Dr.Hota in keeping with his party’s official position. CThe Congress’s support for BJD’s common candidate is being seen as a rare gesture of political magnanimity as the party had earlier decided to field its own candidate and seek support for him.Congress president Bhakta Charan Das was present in the state assembly on Thursday along with his BJD counterpart Naveen Patnaik and state CPI(M) secretary Suresh Panigrahi when BJD candidate Mishra and Dr. Hota filed their nominations. This was the first occasion in the last 26 years when BJD and Congress, arch rivals in Odisha politics, came together for a common cause.Das described the occasion as historic and expressed hope that the cooperation between the two parties would continue in future as well. Naveen Patnaik, though happy with Congress support for his party candidates, made a cryptic remark when asked for his reaction to Das’s comment. “Time always tells future history,” he quipped.The big question now is whether the opposition parties’ show of unity will be enough to stop cross-voting in favour of Ray, who has the BJP’s full backing. The BJP, after accounting for its two official candidates’ victories, will still have 22 first-preference votes left, which will likely go to the hotelier-turned-politician. Ray is also likely to get the votes of the two suspended BJD MLAs, Arabind Mohapatra and Sanatan Mahakud. Arabind has already indicated he’ll vote based on the candidates’ merits, and his father is a close friend of Ray’s. Mahakud, a mine owner, is less likely to vote with BJD given the current situation.If both Arabinda and Mahakud opt for Ray as expected, the former Union minister would need just six more first preference votes to breast the tape, a task not at all difficult given the resources at his command. Sources said Ray is likely to take advantage of the internal dissension within both the BJD and the Congress over a range of issues.The BJD recently expelled former MLA Pravat Biswal for objecting the candidature of Dr. Hota leaving him fuming against the leadership. Pravat’s son Souvic Biswal is the party MLA from Cuttack-Choudwar constituency and remains unhappy about the punishment meted out to his father. Another disgruntled BJD leader is former MLA, Pravat Tripathy whose son Debi Ranjan Tripathy is a sitting MLA.A section of Congress leaders, too, appear to be unhappy with the present leadership following the expulsion of former MLA Mohammad Muquim, whose daughter Sofia Alam is the party MLA from Cuttack-Barabati constituency.Ray is likely to tap into this discontent in the two major opposition parties to win the support of the disgruntled MLAs in his favour. “He is a clever politician. He definitely has a plan up his sleeves,” remarked Dr. Choudhary.The BJP has openly declared its support for Ray’s candidature. Talking to media persons in Bhubaneswar, chief minister Mohan Charan Majhi said, “Ray is a senior leader and our party has decided to support him.”State BJP president Samal was even more categorical about his party’s stance on Ray. “We have decided in principle to offer him support and remain confident about his victory,” remarked Samal, when asked about the Rajya Sabha prospects of the former Union minister.Once counted among the closest aides of former chief minister Naveen Patnaik, Ray, one of the founding members of BJD, fell out with him after being dropped from the Vajpayee ministry in 2000. He was expelled from the party two years later when he decided to contest the Rajya Sabha election as an independent after being denied a ticket.Much to the chagrin of Naveen Patnaik, Ray won the election, orchestrating cross-voting mainly from the BJD with around 15 party MLAs opting for him in open defiance of the party line.Memories of 2002 Rajya Sabha polls have returned to haunt the BJD with Ray throwing his hat into the ring again.Former BJD MLA Latika Pradhan expressed her fears about cross-voting recalling what had happened under similar circumstances 24 years ago. “Dilip Babu had won that election rather easily as an independent by luring away MLAs of recognised parties. Nothing can be ruled out with him in contest against,” remarked Pradhan.Congress spokesperson Amiya Pandab agreed that Ray’s resources can upset the calculations of opposition parties but he was more diplomatic with his reply.“We remain committed to supporting the common candidate fielded by BJD as promised by our senior leaders. If he manages to get the 18 surplus first preference votes of BJD then his victory with our support is certain as we have 14 MLAs in the assembly. But I remain worried about the prospects of BJD’s first candidate whose fate could be sealed by cross-voting as this possibility cannot be ruled out. It is up to Naveen Babu to keep his flock together,” averred Pandab.