A week ago, Haryana chief minister Nayab Singh Saini declared that Samrat Choudhary, the current deputy to Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar, would “unfurl the flag of victory” in the assembly elections. His remarks were made in the presence of Samrat Choudhary and Upendra Kushwaha, president of the Rashtriya Lok Samta Party and a prominent Koiri leader – both part of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) – among others.Even as Nitish’s loyalists fumed at Saini’s remarks, the Bharatiya Janata Party’s top leadership maintained a studied silence. Meanwhile, Pranav Prakash, a Kurmi leader of the BJP, organised a Shivaji rally for Kurmis at Bihar Sharif – the headquarters of the Nalanda parliamentary seat, which is represented in the Lok Sabha by Nitish loyalist Kaushalendra Kumar, and whose assembly segments are entirely in the Janata Dal (United)’s share.Amid growing chaos within the Bihar NDA ahead of the assembly elections, Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) leader and Union minister Chirag Paswan has declared, “Bihar is calling me. I am not interested in national politics as my father was. I will work for ‘Bihar first’.” This is the same Chirag who, while remaining in the NDA, had fielded candidates against the JD(U), which openly accused him of contributing to its defeat in 36 seats in the 2020 polls.While Bihar BJP leaders, whom the party’s top brass may conveniently describe as “fringe elements”, appear to be working to pacify Nitish’s aggrieved loyalists, the JD(U) itself seems divided between loyalties to the BJP and to Nitish. Nitish, on his part, seems to have lost the ability to navigate such crises. Also read: Amit Shah’s Remarks on Nitish Kumar Have Put the Spotlight Back on Bihar CM’s Future MovesIn December last year, Union home minister Amit Shah for the first time questioned the possibility of Nitish returning as chief minister, cryptically stating that the NDA’s “top leadership” would decide the matter. Nitish loyalists in the JD(U) strongly objected to Shah’s remarks, while the so-called “fringe elements” publicly insisted that Nitish would continue to lead the NDA. However, when Narendra Modi shared the dais with Nitish at a rally in Bhagalpur in February, he described him as “ladla Mukhyamantri” (beloved chief minister), but stopped short of clearly endorsing him for the CM’s post, unlike in the 2024 Lok Sabha campaign. In effect, Modi endorsed the ambiguity that had been introduced by Shah two months earlier.Scramble among ‘fringe elements’With Nitish increasingly seen as awkward and erratic in his political conduct, and believed to be ensnared in the web spun by the Modi-Shah duo, BJP leaders considered “fringe elements” are now openly scrambling for the CM’s post. Samrat Choudhary, the Koiri leader mentioned earlier is known to harbour ambitions for the top job. But he has competition in his fellow deputy chief minister, Vijay Kumar Sinha, a Bhumihar, who is also vying for the post. Yet another contender is Union minister Nityanand Rai, a Yadav and close confidant of Amit Shah. These leaders hope that the BJP, with its 77 MLAs in the Bihar assembly, will emerge as the largest component of the NDA and finally fulfil its long-cherished goal of installing its own chief minister.However, none of these aspirants can be sure of being the eventual choice of the Modi-Shah combine.After all, the current chief ministers of Haryana, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Odisha – Nayab Singh Saini, Mohan Yadav, Bhajan Lal Sharma, and Mohan Charan Majhi, respectively – did not even enjoy the status of Bihar’s “fringe elements” before being handpicked by the duo. Their rise serves as a reminder that CM prospects depend entirely on whether the BJP can secure enough power in the state.At this stage, it would be naive to predict who will emerge as the eventual winner.Tejashwi-led allianceAmidst the chaos within the Bihar NDA, the Tejashwi Yadav-led mahagathbandhan or grand alliance, comprising the Rashtriya Janata Dal, the Congress, the Left parties, and Mukesh Sahni’s Vikassheel Insaan Party appears organised. The alliance, in a series of back-to-back meetings this month involving Mallikarjun Kharge, Rahul Gandhi, Krishna Allavaru, Tejashwi, Manoj Jha, and Sanjay Yadav among others, has formally declared Tejashwi as the chairman of its election campaign committees in Bihar.While some NDA “fringe elements” have been feeding the media the narrative that the Congress is hesitant about endorsing Tejashwi as the chief ministerial face, the reality appears otherwise. The Congress has, in fact, fully backed Tejashwi’s leadership in the Bihar context. Of course, being a coalition of powerful parties with individual stakes, the mahagathbandhan may face its own set of challenges when it comes to seat-sharing. Yet, even on that front, the scramble for seats appears far more intense within the NDA than in the mahagathbandhan. Sensing Nitish’s vulnerability, the BJP’s top brass is likely to press for a larger share of seats at the JD(U)’s expense – a position of dominance that Nitish had never allowed in the past.As part of its campaign strategy, the mahagathbandhan has also resolved to “make voters aware” of Nitish’s declining health and the BJP’s alleged exploitation of the situation – by taking this message door-to-door. In contrast, the BJP is expected to fall back on its familiar plank of warning voters against a return to the “Jungle raaj” of Lalu-Rabri and projecting the NDA as the force that put Bihar back on track and is carrying it forward on the “path of development” with “Modi ji” at the helm.Also read: With Nitish Kumar in Decline, Where Is Prashant Kishor’s Political Space in Bihar?Prashant KishorInterestingly, Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraj Party also appears more structured than the NDA – if not yet as consolidated as the mahagathbandhan. In the recent C-Voter popularity rating survey, Kishor registered support from 17.2% of respondents, surpassing Nitish Kumar’s, which was at 15.4%. Tejashwi remains the most popular leader with 35.5% backing.However, such surveys cannot be taken as predictors of election outcome. Much water will flow down the Ganga, Gandak, Kosi, and the intricate maze of Bihar’s rivers – as intricate as the state’s socio-political landscape – in the six months that remain before the assembly polls.Nalin Verma is a senior journalist, author and media educator.