Aizawl: The election results for the ninth Mizoram assembly elections are of great significance for the state. In the electoral history of the northeastern state, there has never been a situation where a mandate was for a hung assembly or for a coalition government. For the first time, the 35-year-old tradition of a government being formed either by the Congress or the regional Mizo National Front (MNF) has come to a close. A new and a third political party has been given a clear mandate to form the government.The six-year-old Zoram People’s Movement (ZPM) has been given a huge mandate by the voters. In the 2018 assembly elections, though the ZPM was attracting people’s attention as a new party, it could win only six seats, while the MNF stole the show with 27 seats. The scenario has changed these elections – it is the ZPM that won 27 seats, leaving the MNF with just ten seats. C. Ngunlianchunga has won the only seat for the Congress in Lawngtlai West Rural; he has won that seat for the third consecutive time.Even as the Congress presence in the 40-member assembly has shrunk to one from five, the BJP could increase its tally in the state for the first time with two wins. This, when the Congress had 20.82% votes and BJP only 5.06% votes. Still, in terms of seats won, the BJP has become the third largest party in Mizoram, leaving the Congress in the third position only in terms of vote share.While the ZPM got 37.86% of the votes polled, MNF got 35.10%. The Aam Aadmi Party, which also tried its luck in Mizoram, along with NOTA and independents got a total of 1.14% votes.What is also significant about these election results is, three women MLAs were elected for the first time in the history of the border state. While two of them belong to the ZPM (Lalrinpuii from the Lunglei East seat and Baryl Wenneihsangi from Aizawl South-3 seat), Prova Chakma of the MNF bagged the Tuipui West seat. While Prova Chakma defeated a BJP candidate to become the first woman MLA from the Chakma community, Baryl Venneihsangi, a popular news anchor, defeated an MNF candidate and Rajya Sabha member. In 2014, a Congresswoman had won a by-election and entered the assembly after 27 years.Yet another noteworthy fact from the poll results is the loss of a sitting chief minister, Zoramthanga of MNF. However, if you look at Mizoram’s electoral history, whenever a ruling party loses elections, the chief minister is defeated too.What needs highlighting is also this: while the ZPM had a good show mostly in the urban pockets – it won all the 12 seats in Aizawl City, four in Lunglei and all three in Serchhip – the MNF won all 10 seats in the rural areas. The BJP has won one seat from the Chakma region. The Congress and BJP have won seats in Saiha and Lawngtlai districts of south Mizoram. BJP has won two seats in Saiha district and Congress has won one of the two seats in Lawngtlai district. BJP has won both the seats of the Mara tribal community and Congress has won one seat from the Lai tribal community area of Lawngtlai district.Apart from the specificities, these elections are important for the main political players of the state in many ways. The ruling party wasn’t able to return to power. The ZPM created important history in the politics of Mizoram.The polls also registered a big fall for the Congress and a big rise for the BJP.Impact on political leadersAnother significant question is, how will this election impact Zoramthanga’s supremacy within the MNF?In ZPM, it will be challenging for Lalduhoma to keep together the two factions of ex-Congress and ex-MNF leaders who had shifted to his party.In the Congress, post its poor show, the leadership of state president Lalsawta will likely face a serious challenge from the supporters of the former chief minister Lalthanhawla within the party.These questions thrown up by the December 4 results have made this election important for politicians in many ways. Lalduhoma’s long wait for the political limelight is finally over; he had been waiting for the chief minister’s chair for the longest time in the state. If the ZPM was not to win this time around, Lalduhoma’s political future would likely have been eclipsed.While Lalduhoma is set to rise in the state, the political innings of MNF supremo Zoramthanga have most likely come to an end. It is unlikely that he will fight another election.In the BJP, due to the defeat of BJP’s new leader Lalrinliana Sailo in these elections, his future in the party has become uncertain.Working with the BJPZPM leader and chief ministererial candidate Lalduhoma, while talking to the media after winning the elections on December 4, said that zero tolerance on state corruption, bringing about financial reforms, balanced development in the state, investigation of corruption cases by the CBI and engaging with the issue of Zo-unification (with the Kukis and Maras of neighbouring Manipur) are going to be the main priorities of his party’s government.Lalduhoma’s biggest challenge will be to fulfil the big promises ZPM had made to the voters, including on the Zo-unification issue. One of the biggest challenges for the new government will also be to bring financial mismanagement under control.The ZPM is likely to join the BJP-led North East Democratic Alliance (NEDA) and the NDA, as Mizoram is dependent on the BJP-led Union government for its economic needs. And there could be more to it, too.Though it has won handsomely to form a government on its own, the ZPM is already under a lot of pressure from the BJP to induct at least one of its MLAs into the new government. If a regional party runs a state government, it has to somewhat compromise to establish some sort of harmony and working relations with the ruling party at the Centre, particularly so when it is financially dependent on it. Along with its Christian politics, ZPM will also then have to maintain an equilibrium of sorts with the Hindutva politics of the BJP. Church organisations have influence on the politics of Mizoram. The two BJP MLAs from the Mara community, who are Christian too, will also then face the challenge of forging a rapport with the BJP’s Hindutva ideology.In the times to come, it will be seen how this working relationship of the ZPM in general with the BJP government at the Centre, and the Mara MLAs in particular with the national party, will pan out.Suwa Lal Jangu is assistant professor of political science, Mizoram University, Aizawl.
