Bengaluru: Opposition parties, including the Congress, have formed a last-minute alliance just four days before the nomination deadline for the Assam assembly elections. How successful this alliance will be in stalling the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) from forming a government for the third time in the state and putting a stop to the extraordinary communal surge is the question now on everyone’s minds.The six-party alliance is seen as a formidable bloc, particularly in Upper Assam which has a sizable Ahom population along with tea tribes. Three important leaders in the alliance – Congress’s Gaurav Gogoi, Raijor Dol’s Akhil Gogoi and Assam Jatiya Parishad (AJP)’s Lurinjyoti Gogoi – all belong to the Ahom community, which holds considerable influence in the region. Since delimitation has redrawn boundaries, it remains to be seen how the Ahom voters spread across these 45 constituencies will vote this time.File image of Congress MP Gaurav Gogoi and Raijor Dol chief Akhil Gogoi. Photo: X/@AkhilGogoiAG.“The opposition unity will put a credible challenge to the incumbent government which was not felt two months or one month ago. In terms of electoral outcome, we can’t have a definite idea since the incumbent government has also built alliances with many smaller communities such as Moran, Matak, tea tribes and Chutia and Mising communities as well,” Akhil Ranjan Dutta, political science professor at Gauhati University, said. At the local level, the BJP has been trying to form informal alliances with representatives of different communities such as Moran, Matak, Deori, Mising, Chutia and Thengal Kachari. At public functions and state-level meetings, these representatives are often invited and their grievances are heard by the state-level leadership. As a result of influence of the representatives, the saffron party remains a favourite among many local tribal communities which are spread across the Upper Assam region. Besides that, what works in the BJP’s favour in Upper Assam is the ‘development’ pitch. Dutta underlined that civil construction works, particularly rural projects initiated during former chief minister Tarun Gogoi’s tenure, were completed in the last ten years and the BJP is taking the credit now. “In Upper Assam, the northern belt was backward particularly in terms of rural roads. Flooding is a perennial problem there. Now, construction of many rural roads have been completed in the last ten years. This has improved connectivity, and communication and transportation have become comfortable. Bridges over rivers have also given great relief to the local people,” he said. The northern belt in Upper Assam roughly comprises around 13 constituencies spread across Lakhimpur, Dhemaji, Biswanath, Sonitpur and Darrang. File photo: Workers pluck tea leaves at a field, in Golaghat district in Assam. Photo: PTI.The BJP seems confident of winning over the large section of tea garden workers in the state as the government has recently granted land pattas to tea workers in their housing quarters, which is believed to benefit over 3.33 lakh families. For both the Congress and the BJP, the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) – which has fielded candidates in 21 constituencies including Mazbat, Biswanath, Khumtai, Chabua, Gossaigaon, Rangapara, Margherita, Naharkatia and Titabor – poses a threat. The party will garner Adivasi votes and might dent the prospects of the saffron party in some of the constituencies in Upper Assam. Out of 126 seats, the Congress will contest 100; it has left 11 seats for Raijor Dol and there will be friendly contests on two seats – Gauripur and Goalpara East. AJP will contest on ten seats, the Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPI(M)) and All Party Hill Leaders Conference (APHLC) will field candidates in two seats each, and the Communist Party of India (Marxist Leninist) (CPI(ML)) will contest on one seat.In the 2021 assembly elections, the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) won 75 seats (44.51% vote share) while the BJP won 60 and secured 33.21% of the vote. In contrast, the Congress-led “Mahajot” (grand alliance) garnered 43.68% votes which translated into only 50 seats; Congress won 29 seats and 29.67% of the vote share. The AJP and Raijjor Dal, meanwhile, together secured nearly 5% of the vote but chose to contest independently rather than join the Mahajot. These votes might have otherwise landed in the Congress’s share.File photo: Villagers shift rice sacks to safer areas after heavy rainfall triggered floods, in Nagaon district of Assam on June 2, 2025. Photo: PTI.Now, the biggest challenge for the alliance is the lack of time as the elections will be held in one phase on April 9. Their common ground is the promise of democratic governance, land rights, and inclusive development. However, the opposition has not been able to effectively raise issues such as lack of irrigation facilities, peasant crisis, increasing floods in both rural and urban areas in recent years, failure of the Jal Jeevan Mission (JJM) scheme which has lead to taps existing without water in many parts of the state and unemployment which has forced many youth to migrate to other parts of the country and work in the unorganised sector.In a post on X, Gaurav Gogoi pointed out on Tuesday (March 24) that 162 migrant workers from the state have died in six months. But the narrative on the ground level remains centred mainly around communal issues, as the BJP continues to ride the Bangladesh bogey with the chief minister himself making derogatory remarks against Muslims, in particular. “The alliance happened quite late. If they were able to stitch the alliance earlier it would have probably helped to create a favourable atmosphere. But nevertheless the alliance will help in avoiding split in position votes except the constituencies where the Congress and Raijor Dol will have friendly contests,” senior journalist Sushanta Talukdar said. He added: “It helps set in a perception among the voters about an alternative which they were looking for. So in the absence of these parties coming together, the view among voters was there was no alternative to the BJP because the opposition is not united. At least the fence sitters who are not happy with the Himanta [Biswa Sharma] government will have something to fall back on.” Is Himanta banking on ‘Cong-JP’ to save his chief ministerial post?“Cong-JP”, a new term coined in Assam ahead of the assembly polls, refers to a BJP comprising of Congress leaders. Several BJP leaders are miffed by this influx of former Congress leaders in the saffron party which has led to ticket aspirants, who were originally in the BJP, getting sidelined. For instance, the BJP has fielded four former Congress leaders who switched sides only in the last few weeks – Pradyut Bordoloi from Dispur, Bhupen Kumar Borah from Bihpuria, Kamalakhya Dey Purkayastha from Katigorah and Sashi Kanta Das from Raha. In Dispur, Jayanta Kumar Das, former vice president of BJP’s Assam unit, has quit the party and is contesting as an Independent. Similarly, Amar Chand Jain, former BJP MLA from Katigorah, has joined the Congress and is now contesting as a Congress candidate against Kamalakhya. More than 15 BJP candidates have a Congress background. This is not surprising considering chief minister Himanta Biswa Sarma was also a prominent Congress MLA and minister before deciding to join the BJP in 2015. The ruling party has also formed an alliance with the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) which is contesting 26 seats and the Bodoland People’s Front (BPF) which has fielded candidates on 11 seats. “Himanta Biswa Sarma is trying to consolidate his own position within the party with the support of the Congress defectors. And this has led to deprivation of seats to many ticket aspirants among the old BJP leaders. This is likely to influence electoral outcomes in some seats like Jayanta Das is contesting as an Independent [in Dispur]. Even in Haflong, incumbent minister Nandita Garlosa has joined the Congress and is contesting on a Congress ticket after the BJP denied her a ticket. There are other constituencies where old BJP leaders and workers are angry. They will have an impact on poll outcomes in these constituencies,” Talukdar said. In neighbouring Tripura, the BJP abruptly removed Biplab Kumar Deb from the chief ministerial post and replaced him with Manik Saha in 2022. Similarly, in 2021 Gujarat chief minister Vijay Rupani was removed from the top post. In the same year, veteran BJP leader B.S. Yediyurappa was replaced with Basavaraj Bommai in Karnataka. In Uttarakhand, the saffron party first replaced Trivendra Singh Rawat with Tirath Singh Rawat and later made Pushkar Singh Dhami the chief minister after three months. In 2024, Haryana chief minister Manohar Lal Khattar was replaced with Nayab Singh Saini. All these changes were made months before the assembly elections in the respective states. In Assam, however, incumbent chief minister Sarbananda Sonowal was not allowed to serve a second term after the 2021 assembly polls. “In BJP, even first time MLAs are also made the chief minister. He [Himanta] thinks he will be in a stronger position if he has the support and numbers from the MLAs as well as his own party and alliance partners – BPF and AGP. He is probably looking at a situation where leaving him out will be difficult to form the government. The support of AGP and BPF will also be crucial in case the BJP doesn’t reach the half way mark on its own,” Talukdar noted.