Jinxes, Vote Share, Diversity and All the Questions That Loom Large Over Karnataka's Poll Results
Stability has been elusive to Karnataka because of its unique demography. However, both the national parties turned the 2023 assembly polls into a high-pitched campaign.
New Delhi: As the results for the high-stakes assembly polls in Karnataka will be announced on May 13, a few questions loom large.
Will the incumbent BJP break the 38-year jinx to come back to power? After all, no other government has been re-elected since 1985.
Will any political force be able to secure a majority on its own? Since the majority government of 1999, there has been only one other majority government – which was elected in 2013 when the Congress crossed the majority mark. All other governments were an outcome of post-poll coalitions that were either marked by multiple chief ministers or struggled to finish their full five-year terms.
Finally, will the results once again cement different social engineering models employed by political parties or could they also usher in a new electoral trend that is steered by factors like anti-incumbency, economic issues, welfarist measures, developmental models, class and gender-based preferences?
Diverse populations across regions of the state have largely been responsible for the frequent hung verdicts in the southern state. The linguistic reorganisation process that resulted in the present day Karnataka brought together parts of different administrative units.
South
Most of southern Karnataka was part of the former princely state of Mysore which is currently distributed across 10 districts: Chikkamagaluru, Tumakaru, Chikkaballapur, Kolar, Ramanagara, Mandya, Hassan, Kodagu, Mysuru, and Chamarajanagar.
Except Chikkamagaluru, Kodagu, and Tumakaru, the BJP does not exactly have a deep footprint in these 10 districts. Known as the Vokkaliga heartland, the contest in seven major districts of Old Mysore is largely between the Congress and the Janata Dal (Secular).
The dominant Vokkaligas are estimated to be over 40% in these districts and are often influential in dictating electoral outcome. The H.D. Devegowda-led JD(S) commands significant support among Vokkaligas. Although the Congress has had traditional support among other communities of the region, both the grand old party and the BJP have been trying to increase its support here. Old Mysore region has 62 seats.
North
The northern part of Karnataka is divided between Mumbai-Karnataka (now Kittur Karnataka), regions which were formerly part of the Bombay Presidency, and Hyderabad Karnataka (now Kalyana Karnataka).
Mumbai Karnataka, comprising districts like Belagavi, Bagalkot, Gadag, Haveri, Dharwad, and Vijayapura, has often been seen as a BJP stronghold. This is because the majority community in the region, Lingayats, and to some extent Marathas, have been supporting the BJP for over three decades. The region has 50 seats.
Hyderabad Karnataka, on the other hand, has 40 seats and is the most impoverished region of the state. It has Bidar, Yadgir, Raichur, Koppal, Kalaburagi, Ballari and Vijayanagara districts. Although the Lingayats are present in sizeable numbers here too, members of the Other Backward Classes, Dalit, and tribal groups form a majority and are often seen as supportive of the Congress.
Coastal and central Karnataka, and Bengaluru
Coastal Karnataka comprises three districts of Udupi, Dakshin Kannada, and Uttara Kannada which were part of Madras Presidency. Often referred to as the original laboratory of Hindutva, the region has 19 seats. Elections here are marked by strong Hindu-Muslim polarisation.
The remaining 53 seats in the 224-member assembly are divided between Bengaluru and central Karnataka that consists of Shivamogga, Davangere, and Chitradurga. Most swing seats are also in this region, and often change their electoral choice in each election. In the last few elections, a majority of the seats in the region were won by BJP.
The diverse demographic make-up, along with the linguistic and cultural differences in each of these regions make a complex electorate out of Karnataka. Often, voters’ concerns, and thus, electoral and political issues are vastly different from place to place. The BJP has a strong presence in the northern and coastal districts, while JD(S) is mostly restricted to the southern part of the state. Only the Congress has a state-wide footprint.
Here are some of the important constituencies to look out for:
Shiggaon: incumbent chief minister B.S. Bommai is contesting to retain the seat for the fourth consecutive time.
Varuna: Former Congress chief minister and popular leader Siddaramaiah is contesting from this seat in the Old Mysore region against BJP’s V.Somanna, one of the Lingayat faces in the saffron party.
Kanakapura: Congress state president D.K.Shivakumar is contesting to be re-elected from the seat but is up against a new challenger R.Ashok, one of the Vokkaliga faces of the BJP.
Shikaripura: Former BJP chief minister B.S.Yediyurappa’s son B.Y. Vijayendra is contesting his maiden election from this constituency in Shivamogga district. The seat was held by his father eight times.
Athani: In this prestige battle, renegade BJP leader and former deputy chief minister Laxman Savadi has taken on BJP’s Mahesh Kumathalli. In 2018, Kumathalli as the Congress candidate had defeated Savadi. But Kumathalli switched over to the BJP in the middle of the term and was preferred over Savdi by the saffron party to represent Athani in Belagavi district. A resentful Savadi changed sides and joined the Congress.
Hubli-Dharwad Central: Former BJP chief minister Jagadish Shettar who joined the Congress after having been denied a ticket is contesting from here. He has held the seat for six consecutive terms.
Gokak: Former Congress leader Ramesh Jarkhioli who was instrumental in engineering the defections of 17 legislators to pull down the Kumaraswamy-led coalition government in 2019 is contesting as a BJP candidate from this seat that he has held multiple times.
Channapatna: The seat in Ramanagara district has become high-profile as H.D.Kumaraswamy, the former chief minister and JD(S)’s second-most important leader is contesting here.
Ramanagara: This seat is Ramanagara has again shot to limelight for Nikhil Kumaraswamy. H.D.Kumaraswamy’s son Nikhil is contesting for the first time in the assembly elections. He had earlier fought the 2019 Lok Sabha polls from Mandya but had lost by a huge margin to Sumalatha, independent candidate who has now joined the BJP. Ramanagara is presently represented by Nikhil’s mother Anitha Kumaraswamy who has decided not to contest this time.
Ballari Rural: Karnataka’s biggest tribal leader and BJP candidate B. Sriramulu is up against senior Congress leader B.Nagendra in this seat.
Vote share and party dynamics
The last few elections have shown that although the Congress ends up with the largest vote share among all parties, it has not been able to finish as the single-largest party. Thus, even with over 38% vote share, it ended up with 78 seats, while the BJP with a little over 36% vote share could muster 104.
In 2013, when the Congress had only 36.59% vote share, it could still win 122 seats. The BJP ended up with under 20% vote share in 2013 as its tallest leader, B.S. Yediyurappa, and one of its senior-most Adivasi leaders B. Sriramulu contested independently, fragmenting the saffron party’s social coalition of Lingayats, Valmikis, and a section of Dalits.
The BJP has been able to convert their limited but strong presence in its strongholds into a greater number of seats. The strike rate of the JD(S) in Old Mysore has also been fairly great, compared to the Congress, making it what people in Karnataka call the “kingmaker”.
Both the national parties have sought the support of the H.D. Devegowda-led JD(S) to form governments in past elections.
In 2006, when JD(S) leader H.D. Kumaraswamy with 28 seats struck a post-poll alliance with BJP with 110 seats, he could still bargain to become the chief minister. He withdrew his support after around two years, leading to the fall of the government. Even in 2018, with 37 seats and a 18.36% vote share, Kumaraswamy became the chief minister in alliance with the Congress that had 78 seats. His government fell after 17 legislators from both the Congress and JD(S) defected to the BJP.
What’s at stake?
Stability has been elusive to Karnataka because of its unique demography. However, both the national parties turned the 2023 assembly polls into a high-pitched campaign, pulling in all their resources hoping to get a clear majority. While the BJP canvassed on its slogan of “double-engine government” and achievements in the field of infrastructure development, the Congress appealed to the poor and the middle classes, leading a campaign around welfare issues and highlighting the failures of the B.S. Bommai government in curbing price rise, unemployment, and heavy-handed corruption.
For the BJP, Karnataka is a significant state in its scheme of things, as it is the only southern state where BJP can boast of having a good organisational presence. Its leaders have seen Karnataka as the party’s “gateway” to the South – BJP’s weakest link in being seen as a truly pan-Indian party.
For the Congress, a victory in Karnataka will revive its dying spirit to a great extent ahead of 2024 Lok Sabha polls. It has shown a resolve to contest unitedly with all its strength under Mallikarjun Kharge’s leadership, and was able to set the political agenda after a long time.
And even for the JD(S), the 2023 assembly polls are crucial to remain electorally relevant.