The political drama unfolding in Karnataka is testing every pundit’s ability to project what lies ahead.Over the past 14 months, the BJP has repeatedly tried to poach the MLAs of the Congress-JD(S) combine, and end the government of strange bedmates. With every attempt, it has tried to reach the magic number of 106 legislators and stake claim to forming the government itself.The latest effort, which began with the resignation of ten MLAs last week, reached its likely crescendo on Monday July 8, as nearly the entire Karnataka cabinet resigned. The same morning, independent MLA H. Nagesh submitted his resignation to governor Vajubhai Rudhabhai Vala. He was seen leaving by a private chartered flight with H. Santosh, close aide of BJP state president B.S. Yeddyurappa, presumably to Mumbai, where the other ten rebels have camped, reportedly at Sofitel Hotel.Bengaluru: Karnataka Independent MLA Nagesh (in white shirt) who has resigned as a minister, boards a special flight for Mumbai pic.twitter.com/kuC7Q9K7uD— ANI (@ANI) July 8, 2019On the surface, everything seems plain. The BJP could now obtain the numbers to form the government. But although the MLAs and ministers have resigned, their resignations have not yet been accepted. Before this could become a matter of contention, speaker Ramesh Kumar went on leave.While chief minister H.D. Kumaraswamy was in the US, attending a religious event, eleven MLAs from the JD(S) and Congress had submitted their resignation. JD(S) MLA Adaguru H. Vishwanath claimed the number was 14.Some names in the list were surprising, such as Congress loyalists MLA Ramalinga Reddy and his daughter, the MLA Sowmya Reddy. Even so, Sowmya Reddy has apparently confirmed that she will attend the Congress legislative meeting scheduled to be held on Tuesday.Resignation for a ‘stable government’Speaking to reporters soon after his resignation, Vishwanath – considered to be a close confidante of JD(S) Supremo H.D. Deve Gowda – said he was for ‘a stable government and this was a small sacrifice he was making for a larger cause.’Most of the MLAs gave stated similar, ‘noble’ reasons before flying to a luxury hotel in Mumbai. They are allegedly being hosted by the BJP, though the saffron party has denied any role in the developments.Also Read: Karnataka: Kumaraswamy Cabinet to be ‘Restructured’ After All JD(S), Congress Ministers ResignNagesh isn’t the last nail in the coalition government’s coffin, but a significant one. He is thought to be close to water resources minister and ‘master-organiser’ D.K. Shivakumar. And this is the second time in a short span that he has resigned.Soon after, Shivakumar and a few major ministers – deputy CM G. Parameshwara, home minister M.B. Patil, Zameer Ahmed, Krishna Byre Gowda and others – put in their papers. Former Karnataka chief minister and Congress leader Siddaramaiah tweeted that the ministers had resigned voluntarily to allow for a cabinet reshuffle.Karnataka chief minister H.D. Kumaraswamy with senior Congress leader D.K. Shivakumar. File photo. Credit: PTIAfter his return from the US, Kumaraswamy tried to salvage the situation and ensure no further damage to the wobbly government. It is now held together by a thread, with speaker Ramesh Kumar seeking time from the governor to “look into the resignations”.The anti-defection law‘Seeking time’ will give the Congress and JD(S) some space to negotiate with the MLAs. While they may seem to have shaken the coalition, the MLAs also face the hanging sword of the anti-defection law – amended in 1985 to ensure politicians do not whimsically change parties in the lure of office or money.Constitutional legal expert Ashok Haranahalli says, “At this juncture, invoking the law isn’t a possibility. The MLAs are still with the same party from where they resigned. Defection can be proven only when they join another party, which has not happened yet.”If an MLA is disqualified through the Act, using a long-drawn legal process which can stretch into years, they have to give up their seat.At the time of writing this copy, another independent MLA, R. Shankar, also resigned and is reportedly on his way to Mumbai to join the rebel squad.Meanwhile the cabinet will request governor Vajubhai Wala to postpone the monsoon session, scheduled to begin on July 12.Siddaramaiah’s game plan?Sources claim the crisis is in some part the game-plan of Siddaramaiah, to ensure he stays relevant to the coalition’s equation.In the recent past, both Deve Gowda and Kumaraswamy reportedly spoke to Rahul Gandhi about Siddaramaiah’s manipulation, claiming he was acting to strengthen his personal brand ‘Ahinda’ (a collective of minorities and marginalised castes) for better leverage in the political arena.This threatened the JD(S), which feels that Siddaramaiah – a former JD(S) man who has an axe to grind with Deve Gowda – could be preparing to settle scores.However, Siddarmaiah – a politician who has taken on the Centre with his deep understanding of regional politics rooted in the South, especially among minority communities – is integral to the the Congress.Siddaramaiah is a crucial politician for the Congress. Credit: PTIINC MLA Zameer Ahmed spoke to reporters on Monday, saying his party’s remaining legislators will be shifted to an undisclosed resort in Kodagu to prevent them from being poached.The BJP is left to wonder if the MLAs it has are enough to achieve its end, or if the party is being taken for a ride again. Even if the poaching is successful, the BJP has no clear path to make Yeddyurappa the chief minister. Other contenders, such as prominent RSS man B.L. Santosh, have been waiting in the wings.Who has emerged as the winner, Amit Shah or Siddaramaiah, will become clear in the days to come.