New Delhi: The Supreme Court has ruled that B.S. Yeddyurappa – sworn in as the chief minister of Karnataka on Thursday despite the Bharatiya Janata Party falling short of the required majority in the assembly – must face a confidence vote on the floor of the house on Saturday at 4 pm.The order, passed on Friday, was meant to put an end to the uncertainty over which party or group commands a majority in the assembly and thus has the right to form a government in the state.A final challenge put by the Congress – questioning the appointment of controversial BJP MLA K.G. Bopaiah as pro tem speaker – was rebuffed by the Supreme Court on Saturday morning. The vote of confidence will now proceed as ordered by it.However, what will actually happen on the floor of the house is uncertain, and will depend on a number of factors, some known, some unknown. The Wire breaks it down.The bare numbersThe Karnataka assembly consists of 225 members – 224 elected MLAs and one MLA from the Anglo-Indian community who, by convention, is nominated by the government.The recent election was meant to cover 224 seats but with voting countermanded in two places, polling took place for 222 seats.The BJP won 104 seats, the Congress 78, the Janata Dal (Secular) 37, its Bahujan Samaj Party ally won one seat while independents took two seats. Yeddyurappa’s attempts to add to his total by nominating an Anglo-Indian MLA has been negated by the Supreme Court.Since JD(S) leader H.D. Kumaraswamy fought and won from two constituencies but can only vote once in the house, the effective number of votes the JD(S) can cast is 36.The governor swore in the controversial K.G. Bopaiah, a BJP MLA from Virajpet, as speaker pro tem, which means that he can only vote on the confidence motion in the event of a tie. This means the BJP’s votes are now 103, unless there is a tie. In the absence of a tie, the maximum number of votes that can be cast is 220.Karnataka confidence motion: The numbers game. Credit: The WireScenario 1: All 220 MLAs present and voting, BJP scores clean winNumber of votes needed to win confidence vote: 110If Yeddyuruppa induces seven non-BJP MLAs to vote for him, he secures 110 votes. There will be a tie, and the pro tem speaker can then cast a deciding ballot in the BJP’s favour.Of these seven, at least four will have to have voted in defiance of their party whip (assuming the BSP and independent MLAs are induced to back the BJP). These four MLAs will then face disqualification under the Tenth Schedule of the Constitution.But the process of disqualification will itself depend on the speaker’s decision and if, after winning the vote of confidence, the BJP manages to get one of its own MLAs elected as speaker (to replace the pro tem speaker), then the affected party/parties might end up going to court to demand disqualification.Scenario 2: BJP wins first round but faces a subsequent trust voteIf the ‘opposition’ MLAs who vote for Yeddyurappa are disqualified or resign, they can always contest the resulting by-elections as BJP candidates. But this time, the Congress and JD(S) are likely to field joint candidates and would stand a good chance at defeating the BJP.But having won his vote of confidence, Yeddyuruppa would remain in power and the earliest he could be subjected to another trust vote would be after those by-elections, provided the result adversely alters party tallies in the assembly. In any case, a fresh trust vote can only be called in the next session of the assembly.In principle, the Congress-JD(S) combine could come back from the by-elections with 5 votes in the assembly (having defeated the four defectors and retained Kumaraswamy’s second seat). In any new trust vote, therefore, Yeddyurappa would need to induce fresh defections from the opposition to stay in power. Alternatively, he could engineer a second trust vote before the the Opposition gets to augment his numbers, thereby buying more time since a further trust vote would have to await a new assembly session.Scenario 3: BJP loses the trust voteIn the event that the BJP loses the trust vote on Saturday, Yeddyurappa would have to resign and the governor would likely swear in H.D. Kumaraswamy as the new chief minister and give him time to demonstrate his majority.Scenario 4: BJP induces resignations, absenteeism or abstentions The BJP can demonstrate a majority with its 103 voting MLAs (not counting the pro tem speaker) provided it is able to ensure that the number of MLAs present and voting is no more than 206. This means it finds ways of prevailing upon 14 Congress and JD(S) MLAs to violate their party whip.Scenario 5: BJP loses vote but gets governor to recommend president’s ruleGiven the manner in which the BJP ha torn up the rulebooks in its pursuit of power in Karnataka, this scenario, unlikely though it sounds, is always a possibility. However, given that the Supreme Court is still seized of the matter, it is bound to strike down any such effort by governor Vajubhai Vala as unconstitutional.