Srinagar: The upcoming by-election in Jammu and Kashmir’s Budgam constituency is shaping up as a significant political battle for the ruling National Conference (NC) which is facing scrutiny over its performance after completing a year in the government last week.Political atmosphere in the central Kashmir constituency heated up on Saturday (October 18) after the main contenders and candidates of the NC and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) filed their nomination papers.According to official data, 20 candidates are fighting the crucial battle on November 11 while counting of votes will be held on November 14.The ruling party has fielded former lawmaker Syed Aga Mehmood who filed the nomination papers in the presence of chief minister Omar Abdullah and his advisor Nasir Aslam Wani along with others at the district magistrate’s office in Budgam.Ruhullah’s displeasure with NC’s style of functioning and decision to not campaignSenior NC leader and three-time Budgam legislator Syed Aga Ruhullah has already announced that he won‘t campaign for the party.The Srinagar Lok Sabha MP has publicly expressed displeasure with the style of functioning of the Union territory’s first elected government led by Abdullah, accusing the party of betraying its mandate and compromising its 2024 assembly election manifesto.After his election to the Lok Sabha last year, it is believed that Ruhullah got the chief minister to contest from Budgam in the first assembly election of the Union territory. Abdullah fought from two seats amid fears that the party’s traditional Ganderbal constituency could throw up an unpleasant surprise.But, even though Omar won from Budgam, things have been going downhill for the Srinagar MP ever since. A source said that Ruhullah’s criticism of the party and the elected government’s style of functioning after it assumed office in October last year has made him an outcast within the party.The source said that the Srinagar MP was not consulted before the candidature of Mehmood, who is the uncle of Ruhullah’s father, was finalised for Budgam despite the fact that Ruhullah was elected from the constituency three times in a row.After filing his nomination papers, Mehmood sought to play down the MP’s influence in Budgam, asserting that the party had its own base while urging “my son” Srinagar MP to support the NC in the election. Mehmood’s son campaigned for Ruhullah in the 2024 parliamentary election.Asked about the implications of Ruhullah’s decision, Mehmood replied: “Why won’t he campaign? A young boy like him was a member of the assembly for so many years because of the party. The National Conference made him and he has to support the party,” he asserted.However, in a post on X, Ruhullah upped the ante by seeking to reiterate his position of staying away from the election.“My loyalty is to my conscience and principles. While I hold respect for my elders in my family, I request them not to belittle my fight (our fight). If they can’t comprehend it and be part of it, at least don’t drag me and my struggle to this level”.My loyalty is to my conscience and principles.While I hold respect for my elders in my family, I request them not to belittle my fight (our fight). If they can’t comprehend it and be part of it, at least don’t drag me and my struggle to this level. https://t.co/CotDvNlpfc— Aga Syed Ruhullah Mehdi (@RuhullahMehdi) October 20, 2025Senior political analyst and Jammu-based author Zaffar Choudhary said that Ruhullah has been “passionately driven by idealism” which “quickly turns into ego when party leadership refuses to yield any space for discussions” ever since the party came to power in 2024.Chaudhary said that there was “barely any culture of consultations” in the NC which could be “frustrating” for some party leaders, “Both in the party and the government spheres the chief minister is seen only in company of five persons who appear to everyone in the party and outside as personal friends rather than organisational functionaries”.For some, the contest in Budgam could also emerge as a roadblock on the political trajectory of Ruhullah who has grown a widespread base of admirers on social media for his political posturing on issues such as Article 370 and J&K Reservation Policy besides his vocal anti-BJP stance.In May, the Srinagar MP walked out of a working committee meeting of the party after a clash with the chief minister.“His current response is an outcome of yearlong isolation. His approaches are often apolitical but he wants to be heard on the issues which he think are of emotional value to Kashmiris. When he is not heard, he does things which appear detrimental to party’s immediate interests and often embarrassing,” Choudhary said.However, it remains unclear whether Ruhullah’s public posturing would sway the electorate and translate into votes for the opposition candidates.The PDP is heading into the election with its 2024 assembly election candidate Syed Aga Muntazir who was defeated by Abdullah with a margin of over 18000 votes in 2024 election. He was accompanied to the district magistrate’s office on Monday (October 20) by PDP leaders Waheed Para, Ghulam Nabi Lone Hanjura and others.Ruhullah and Muntazir are related to each other and both belong to Mustafai sub-sect of Shia Islam in Kashmir while the NC candidate Mehmood belongs to Mahamdi sub-sect who are fewer in number.Even though Budgam is a bastion of the Shia community, it is a Sunni-dominated constituency outside the main town barring few villages such as Ichgam and Mahwara which are not aligned religiously with any Aga.These villages follow the diktats of their religious leaders and preachers such as Peoples Conference leader Imran Ansari while voting in elections.There are speculations that the alleged mistreatment of Ruhullah may not go down well with the Mustafai-Shia community who could end up throwing their weight behind the PDP candidate instead of Mehmood who comes from a rival sub-sect.“The (Budgam) election could either open doors for restoring credibility of a moral political project based on mutual trust and respect which is propagated by Ruhullah or it could mean the end of it, at least for the time being,” said Noor Ahmad Baba, a Srinagar-based political analyst and academic.However, Choudhary said that it was “highly unlikely” that Ruhullah’s posturing would result in any significant anti-NC voting sentiment in Budgam.Referring to the incumbent J&K Congress chief Tariq Hamid Karra’s resignation from the PDP in the midst of the Burhan Wani agitation, he said that people tended to have a short memory when it comes to the issues of morality in politics.“Practical politics is a very cruel game. It took Karra almost eight years to have himself reinstated. No one remembers his action as any moral stand. He could win the (2024) assembly election on NC’s 2019-linked wave. The political environment in which Ruhullah operates is nothing compared to the eruption of 2016,” he said.‘Unlike last time, this election won’t be a cakewalk for the National Conference’A resident of Budgam said that the local unit of the National Conference was “disgruntled” with Abdullah’s decision of “abandoning” the constituency after winning from Ganderbal. “Unlike last time, this election won’t be a cakewalk for the National Conference,” said the resident, wishing anonymity.Betraying the unease within the party on Budgam bypolls, Abdullah told reporters on Monday that he was forced to contest from the constituency in 2024 while hoping that Ruhullah would support Mehmood.“Aga Mehmood saheb has already said that Aga Ruhullah is just like his son. He expects his full support in the election. What else is there to add,” Abdullah said.PDP leader Para said that the Budgam contest was a “popular vote on the failed promises” of the National Conference-led government which came to power on the planks of undoing the changes brought by the BJP in Jammu and Kashmir after Article 370 was read down.“It’s an election for the prestige of Budgam and J&K,” Para said, “The people need a local representative who will remain accessible and listen to their grievances even after becoming chief minister. The PDP has offered that alternative and we are hopeful that Budgam will vote for change”.The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has fielded Syed Aga Mohsin, also a Mustafai-Shia, from the constituency. The NC, the PDP and the BJP candidates also come from the same Aga family of Budgam. The AAP has fielded its Kashmir province vice-president Deeba Khan. Nazir Ahmad Khan is contesting on the Awami Ittehad Party mandate while Jibran Dar is also in the polling fray as an independent.