Political intrigue and cynicism have peaked in Maharashtra, which is widely seen as a key swing state for the 2024 general election, with 48 Lok Sabha seats, the highest after Uttar Pradesh. It was no surprise that Sharad Pawar’s nephew Ajit Pawar was on Sunday, July 2, sworn in as deputy chief minister after he joined the Bharatiya Janata Party-Shinde Shiv Sena alliance, claiming that he had the support of most NCP MLAs.That is yet to be tested, but what was really surprising was that Sharad Pawar loyalists like Praful Patel and Chhagan Bhujbal joined Ajit Pawar’s breakaway faction.Patel and Supriya Sule were made working presidents of the NCP by Sharad Pawar only last month after speculation began that Ajit Pawar might join the BJP with his band of loyalists.No one thought Praful Patel would ever ditch Sharad Pawar. But then Ajit Pawar, Praful Patel and Bhujbal have also been under the scrutiny of the Enforcement Directorate. PM Modi last week addressed a rally in Bhopal where he attacked the NCP as a “ghotala (scam)” party with leaders involved in corruption cases amounting to Rs 70,000 crore.Modi specifically mentioned the irrigation scam, which is linked to Ajit Pawar. The ED attached four floors of Praful Patel’s prime property in South Mumbai a few months ago. The property allegedly has links with Dawood Ibrahim’s right hand man Iqbal Mirchi. No wonder the joke doing the rounds is that “the ED faction of NCP has allied with the BJP”!But the endgame of Maharashtra politics is not nearly played out yet.Also read: Ajit Pawar Is the Very Antithesis of Modi’s ‘Naya Bharat’The next moves from the wily Sharad Pawar are awaited. Some political pundits claiming superior knowledge of Maharashtra say Pawar was in the loop and all this is happening with his implicit consent. It is argued that Praful Patel in particular would not have moved a muscle without Pawar’s green signal.Another view is that Pawar has instinctively read the ground reality in Maharashtra, whose voters are disgusted with Modi and Shah’s cynical politics ― this was quite evident after the Supreme Court verdict on the Shinde Shiv Sena power grab. A veritable sympathy wave for Uddhav Thackeray was palpable at the time. Of late, the BJP has been very worried that the traditional Shiv Sena voter favours Uddhav Thackeray, which internal BJP surveys have apparently confirmed. The Supreme Court verdict has given Uddhav the moral high among the people of Maharashtra.Pawar, too, could now play the victim card with the Maratha voter and possibly turn the tide in his favour. Don’t forget the visual of Pawar standing in the rain, addressing a crowd to thwart Modi’s attempt to corner him.Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) president Sharad Pawar addresses a public meeting in the rain ahead of the 2019 assembly elections, in Satara district of Maharashtra on October 18. Photo: PTIIt is reasonable to assume that Pawar’s last gambit would be to leave some political legacy for his daughter. Also, note that after the defection, a spokesperson described Pawar as their devta (god) and hoped he would follow them into the BJP camp. In Indian mythology, gods follow their own counsel!One will have to see how the old fox of Indian politics plays his cards now. The NCP has sought the disqualification of the rebel MLAs under the 10th Schedule of the Constitution, and a fight for the party symbol could follow. A split in the party must be guided by the rules of the 10th schedule and the Election Commission will eventually decide on issues like who retains the party symbol.“The Tenth Schedule (anti-defection law) also operates when a group of persons, whether minority or majority, claim they belong to the same party,” Justice D.Y. Chandrachud had said in the context of the Shiv Sena split. In Maharashtra, it’ll be open season until 2024.This piece was first published on The India Cable – a premium newsletter from The Wire & Galileo Ideas – and has been republished here. To subscribe to The India Cable, click here.
