Gorakhpur: Away from the media glare on the Gorakhpur (Urban) constituency, where incumbent chief minister Adityanath is contesting his maiden assembly elections, the adjoining Gorakhpur (Rural) is quietly voting in the sixth phase on Thursday. Yet, the seat is ideal to understand the tough contest on the cards in Uttar Pradesh (East).At Belwar village, which has around 2,500 votes, a group explained the electoral equations lucidly.“The contest is mainly between Samajwadi Party’s Vijay Bahadur Yadav and Bharatiya Janata Party’s incumbent MLA Bipin Singh,” said Sudama Paswan, a former Indian footballer.“Both parties have their fixed votes. But the winner will be decided by which way a majority of Nishad and Paswan communities’ votes go,” he added.The Nishad, or the boatmen community, inhabit the outskirts of Gorakhpur town, and constitute around 1.2 lakh votes in the Gorakhpur (Rural) seat. The Paswan, or Pasi, community is the second-largest group in the seat. They have switched loyalties from time to time, while upper caste voters have remained with the BJP and Yadav-Muslims with the SP.Both these community appeared to be divided in four election booths in Belwar, Jangal Chauri, Jangal Sikri, and Ranidiha that The Wire visited on Thursday.Also read: Jobs, Education, Cattle and Lord Ram: Perspectives from the Field in Uttar PradeshMost Mallah respondents appeared to be divided between the two parties, while some said that they voted for the Bahujan Samaj Party which has fielded a Nishad candidate, Dara Nishad.“In our village, Nishads mostly voted for phool (BJP’s election symbol). Only a few went to cycle (SP’s symbol). We like BJP because communal riots don’t happen when it is in power,” said a Nishad voter who sells sugarcane juice in Jangal Sikri.Neelgais grazing in farms of Jangal Chauri. Photo: Ajoy Ashirwad MahaprashastaHowever, his personal preference was SP’s Vijay Bahadur Yadav. “He has a clean image. He stays with us through the good and bad. Bipin Singh is a moneyed contractor. He did nothing for the constituency but Nishads here voted for the BJP only because of Baba’s (a popular reference for Adityanath) appeal.”In Belwar, some Nishad voters said that their vote was for the SP despite their preference for a BJP-led government. “Vijay Bahadur Yadav helps us in times of need. Nishad Party is our party but their leaders are corrupt,” said a Nishad voter in Belwar.Across the constituency, Nishad voters made many allegations of high-handeness and corruption against Nishad Party president Sanjay Nishad, who has allied with the BJP.Nishads appeared confused about their political preference in many villages because of Sanjay Nishad’s flip-flops. “He was an independent earlier. Then he joined ranks with SP, and now is with BJP. What to make of him?” said one Nishad voter who referred to the candidate fielded by the BSP.Also read: Bipolar BJP-SP Contest Likely to Continue in Sixth Phase of UP PollsA similar confusion prevailed among Pasis too. While the community tilted mostly towards the SP, some also spoke about BJP’s good governance.However, SP workers claimed that their party has weaned a major chunk of the Pasi community away from the BJP this time around. “The community voted BJP in 2017 but Akhilesh Yadav fielded a Pasi candidate in the neighbouring Chauri Chaura seat. It has influenced the community’s votes here too,” said Ram Bacchan Yadav of Jangal Chauri village.Some Paswan voters The Wire spoke to confirmed the SP workers’ claim. “Many in our community are voting for the SP this time. We want the BJP government out, although Adityanath is a good person. But we are fed up of stray animals destroying our farms and our declining incomes,” said Akash Paswan near Belwar.It is clear that the SP has dented the BJP’s previous big tent social coalition, but whether the quantum of the change will eventually hurt the BJP in the seat remains to be seen.A polling booth. Photo: Ajoy Ashirwad MahaprashastaUpsetting the caste equations is Vijay Bahadur Yadav’s popularity irrespective of party allegiances, and anti-incumbency sentiment against Bipin Singh.Political analysts of the area believe that BJP repeated its unpopular candidate only because of Adityanath’s insistence. “Bipin Singh is considered very close to Adityanath. Nishad Party was supposed to contest from Gorakhpur (Rural) which would have consolidated the Nishad votes. However, Adityanath’s insistence on Singh forced Nishad Party to shift its candidate Sarwan Kumar Nishad, who is also Sanjay Nishad’s son, to neighbouring Chauri Chaura,” said Manoj Kumar Singh, a senior journalist in Gorakhpur.Nishad voters The Wire spoke to also said that the BJP should have fielded Sarwan from the seat to ensure a victory.The close contest in Gorakhpur reflects the intense battle unfolding in most seats going to polls in the sixth phase of the UP elections. “It is a fight to the finish. No one is in a position to accurately predict the outcome,” said Singh.