The Samajwadi Party’s victory against the Bharatiya Janata Party in Ghosi has generated excitement among the constituents of the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) in the run up to the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, particularly in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar.Some observers believe that the victory might be a turning point in the country’s electoral annals as Mohsina Kidwai’s win of the Azamgarh Lok Sabha seat in the 1978 by-election had been, following the Congress’s crushing defeat in the 1977 general elections. It had revived the fortune of the grand old party in north India.The Congress had lost massively to the Janata Party in Uttar Pradesh, among other north Indian states and had lost power at the Union government for the first time after Independence in 1977. Mohsina Kidwai’s victory heralded the beginning of the party’s recovery. It eventually came back to power in 1980.The victory of Samajwadi Party’s Sudharkar Singh against Bharatiya Janata Party candidate Dara Singh Chauhan by 42,759 votes in a constituency that is said to have over 60,000 Dalit voters is quite stupendous. Chauhan is noted as a frequent switcher of parties.But a close look at the political realities of 1978 and the situation 45 years down the line in 2023 suggests that the Samajwadi Party and the Congress – which are the most active INDIA coalition members in Uttar Pradesh – will have a long way to go to defeat the BJP in the heartland state.Also read: In Uttar Pradesh, it Is INDIA-1 and NDA-0The Samajwadi Party secured 32.1% votes against the BJP’s 41.29% in the 2022 elections in Uttar Pradesh. The Congress had secured barely 2.33% votes – by all accounts an insignificant vote-share in the most populous state. Of course, the Samajwadi Party’s vote-share had gone sharply up in comparison to the 2017 elections when Akhilesh Yadav’s outfit had secured only 21.8% votes and had been reduced to 47 seats. The Samajwadi Party’s seats also went up to 111.On the other hand the BJP’s vote-share remained almost the same in 2017 and 2022 but its seats got reduced substantially. Adityanath’s party bagged 255 seats in 2022, against 312 in 2017. Thus, the combined vote-shares of the Congress and the Samajwadi Party too would not have made any difference against the BJP in the 2022 elections.VulnerabilityIf anything, the Ghosi by-poll results have brought to the fore the vulnerability of small caste-based parties which have been operating in the sub-regions of eastern Uttar Pradesh. For example, leaders Dara Singh Chauhan and Omprakash Rajbhar who were believed to have had a sway over their respective castes of Nonia and Bhar, have ostensibly been losing significance in state politics. Both have recently late switched over to the BJP after earlier associations with the Samajwadi Party. But they had hardly made a difference to the prospects of the Samajwadi Party when Akhilesh Yadav had brought them into its fold in the 2022 polls.Another noticeable point is the increasingly dwindling clout of Mayawati and her Bahujan Samajwadi Party. The party was reduced to a solitary seat and secured only 12.88% votes in 2022 – an all-time low vote-share in the last 30 years. There was an allegation that Mayawati had helped the BJP against Samajwadi Party in 2022 by “transferring” her non-Jatav Dalit votes to the saffron party and fielding more Muslim candidates.The extent to which Mayawati helped the BJP in 2022 is subject to study. But Ghosi has offered verifiable evidence to suggest that Dalit voters did not heed her call to stay away from voting at the by-polls. Despite Ghosi having a significant Dalit population, the Samajwadi Party candidate secured about 58% votes against his rival at the seat, suggesting that it did secure the Dalit votes too.Still, there exists a big chasm in the vote-shares of the BJP and INDIA. Rahul Gandhi’s image has, of course, improved since his Bharat Jodo Yatra and the Congress’s massive victory in Karnataka. The Karnataka results had also cast a doubt over Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s capability to win polls for his party for he was the main face of his party’s campaign in Karnataka.But the INDIA alliance can ill-afford to be complacent on the basis of some recent positives.Also read: INDIA Alliance Passes First By-Poll Test Well, But Needs to Sort Out Differences in Key StatesBiharThere are striking similarities between the demographic behaviour of the people in western Bihar and eastern Uttar Pradesh. But chances are that INDIA would fare better in Bihar, not only in comparison to Uttar Pradesh but to several other states including Haryana, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh.The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) comprising the BJP and the Janata Dal (United) had secured 45.39 % votes including the BJP’s 23.58% and the JD(U)’s 21.81%. The combine had won 39 seats with the Rashtriya Janata Dal drawing a blank and the Congress winning the solitary Kishenganj seat.However, the BJP has struggled to remain a potent force in the state every time the JD(U) lhas eft it and joined hands with the Rashtriya Janata Dal. The 2015 assembly elections are a benchmark in the context of the BJP’s and INDIA’s prospects in Bihar.The JDU-RJD-Congress grand alliance had secured 41.8% votes, winning 178 seats against the BJP’s 34.1% and 53 seats in its share in the state in 2015. Now, the INDIA grouping has the CPI-ML-Liberation, which is the biggest Left party with a substantial vote-share in several pockets of central, south and north Bihar. But the BJP which has lost the JD(U) has made no additions in terms of allies with a meaningful support base in the state.The BJP has been publicly effusive about getting the outfits of Upendra Kushwaha, a Koiri leader and Jitan Ram Manjhi, a Musahar leader in its fold. But Kushwaha and Manjhi were with the BJP in the 2015 elections too. It will be hardly surprising if Manjhi’s and Kushwaha’s parties meet the same fate that Dara Singh Chauhan and Omprakash Rajbhar have met in Ghosi.Nalin Verma is a senior journalist, author, media educator and independent researcher in folklore.