When smoke suddenly filled the conference hall at the Bahujan Samaj Party’s (BSP’s) Uttar Pradesh headquarters during party chief Mayawati’s 70th birthday press conference due to a short circuit, panic spread among journalists and security personnel present at 12, Mall Avenue in Lucknow. No one was injured, and the incident was quickly brought under control.Within hours, Samajwadi Party (SP) president Akhilesh Yadav demanded a probe into what he described as a serious security lapse. It immediately acquired a political meaning far beyond an electrical fault. His concern, expressed publicly and amplified through social media, triggered a fresh round of political speculation in the politically significant state of Uttar Pradesh. At one level, Akhilesh’s reaction appeared routine and responsible. Mayawati is a former chief minister and a national political figure; any lapse in her security naturally invites questions. But in the deeply layered politics of Uttar Pradesh, few gestures are ever purely administrative. Akhilesh’s intervention was widely read as a calculated political signal, especially aimed at Dalits, for whom Mayawati remains the most recognisable and emotive leader.“The incident itself was minor, but the politics around it is major,” said political analyst Utkarsh Sinha. “Akhilesh Yadav did not need to comment immediately, yet he chose to do so. That choice is political.”Dalits at the centre of Uttar Pradesh’s political equationDalits constitute nearly 22% of Uttar Pradesh’s population and have historically played a decisive role in shaping the state’s politics. The BSP, under Mayawati’s leadership, formed the government four times, culminating in her landmark 2007 victory when she secured a full majority on her own. That moment marked the peak of Dalit assertion in the state.However, since then, Mayawati’s political graph has steadily declined. She has been out of power for nearly one and a half decade, losing three assembly elections and three Lok Sabha polls since 2012. Today, the BSP has no Member of Parliament in the Lok Sabha and just one MLA in the 403-member Uttar Pradesh assembly. For a party that once ruled India’s most populous state, the fall has been steep.Yet, despite this decline, Mayawati continues to command loyalty among a core section of Dalits, particularly the Jatavs. In the 2024 general elections, the BSP still managed to secure around 9.4% of the vote share in Uttar Pradesh, a figure that underlines her residual influence.“Mayawati may have lost institutional power, but she has not lost symbolic power,” said Syed Qasim, a political commentator based in Lucknow. “For many Dalits, she remains a symbol of dignity and political assertion.”Akhilesh’s 2027 ambition and the search for a broader social coalitionAkhilesh’s political ambition is clear: he wants to return to power in Uttar Pradesh in the 2027 assembly elections. The SP has been out of office since 2017, and despite leading the opposition, Akhilesh knows that defeating the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) requires expanding beyond the party’s traditional Muslim–Yadav (M–Y) base.In the 2024 general elections, Akhilesh made a conscious attempt to do just that. By popularising the slogan Pichhda, Dalit aur Alpsankhyak (PDA), he tried to stitch together a broader social coalition. The results were striking. The SP jumped from just five Lok Sabha seats in 2019 to 37 seats in 2024, while its INDIA bloc ally Congress won six seats in the state.Political experts widely agree that this surge would not have been possible without support from backward classes, Muslims, and a section of Dalit voters.“The 2024 results showed Akhilesh Yadav’s political maturation,” said Sinha. “He demonstrated that the SP can move beyond its core base. But to sustain this coalition till 2027, Dalits will be crucial.”Mayawati’s strategic distance and Akhilesh’s calculated silenceInterestingly, while Akhilesh has been careful in his approach towards Mayawati, the BSP chief has shown little warmth in return. In October 2025, during a rally in Lucknow, Mayawati launched a sharp attack on the SP’s 2012–17 government, accusing it of disrespecting Dalit icons and symbols. Notably, she used comparatively restrained language while referring to the Adityanath-led BJP government, even praising it for maintaining Dalit heritage sites.Akhilesh chose not to respond. His silence was telling.“Akhilesh understands that responding aggressively to Mayawati only helps her consolidate her core voters,” said Sinha. “By staying quiet, he avoids alienating Dalits who still respect her.”This restraint reflects Akhilesh’s broader strategy. Over the years, he has taken several steps to signal his commitment to Dalit issues: forming the Ambedkar Vahini within the SP, installing a statue of Dr B.R. Ambedkar at the party headquarters, and giving prominence to Dalit leaders like Awadhesh Prasad, who won the Ayodhya Lok Sabha seat.“Akhilesh is consciously building an image of inclusivity,” said Sinha. “He wants Dalits to see him not as a rival to Mayawati, but as a leader who respects Dalit aspirations.”The alliance question: Closed door or strategic ambiguity?The memory of the 2019 SP–BSP alliance still looms large. Formed nearly 24 years after the infamous guest house incident, the partnership was historic but short-lived. While it helped the BSP win 10 Lok Sabha seats, it failed to stop the BJP’s dominance and collapsed soon after.Speculation about a future alliance resurfaces periodically, but most experts remain sceptical. Atul Chandra, former editor of The Times of India, offered a blunt assessment. “Alliance with Mayawati is not possible for Akhilesh, as her conditions would be so hard that he will never accept them,” said Chandra.Chandra believes Akhilesh’s current approach is not about reviving an alliance but about consolidating Dalit support independently. “I don’t think Mayawati will join hands with Akhilesh in the next assembly elections, but Akhilesh has certainly sent a strong signal to Dalits about his intent to bring them under his political umbrella,” he said.Mayawati’s cautious politics and the limits of mobilisationA key reason for Mayawati’s declining influence, many analysts argue, is her reluctance to engage in sustained grassroots mobilisation. Unlike her earlier years, she has largely stayed away from mass movements and aggressive street politics.“Mayawati’s politics today is defensive,” said Chandra. “She is protecting her core vote rather than expanding it. That leaves space for someone like Akhilesh to step in.”The 2024 general election results indicated that a section of the Dalit population in Uttar Pradesh has begun drifting away from the BJP reportedly due to rising incidents of atrocities and fears surrounding constitutional changes. The Congress’s narrative about the constitution being under threat resonated with many Dalit voters, pushing some towards the INDIA bloc.“Akhilesh benefited from this churn,” said Qasim. “But benefiting once is not the same as building long-term loyalty.”When smoke became a symbolAgainst this backdrop, Akhilesh’s reaction to the short-circuit incident takes on added significance. By demanding a probe, he positioned himself as a concerned leader rising above partisan rivalry. More importantly, he conveyed respect for Mayawati as a Dalit icon.“By demanding a probe into the short-circuit incident, Akhilesh has conveyed that he is serious about the well-being of Dalit icons,” Sinha said. “It is optics, but optics matter in politics.”Whether Dalit voters interpret this gesture as genuine concern or political opportunism will shape the road to 2027. For now, Akhilesh has made his move, carefully calibrated and symbolically loaded. Mayawati, despite her political setbacks, remains the axis around which Dalit politics in Uttar Pradesh still turns.The real test for Akhilesh will be whether this carefully crafted respect for Dalit leadership translates into trust on the ground – or remains another well-read political signal.