Exit Polls Predict BJP Win in UP, Manipur; AAP Victory in Punjab

Ahead of the counting of votes on March 10, exit polls predict a close contest in Uttarakhand, and a hung assembly in Goa.

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New Delhi: With the voting process now complete in five states, the exit polls predict a possible change of guard in Uttarakhand, with the Congress appearing ahead of the BJP, and in Punjab, with the Aam Aadmi Party likely to dislodge the ruling Congress.

In the crucial state of Uttar Pradesh, although BJP is likely to form the next government, its tally this time around could be significantly lower than its 2017 performance. While the saffron party appears to form another government in Manipur, Goa is the only state where exit polls predict a hung assembly. The counting of votes will be done on Thursday, March 10.

Exit Poll BJP+ SP+ BSP Congress
P-MARQ 240 140 17 4
Republic TV-Matrize 262-277 119-134 7-15 3-8
NewsX-Polstrat 211-225 116-160 14-24 4-6
ETG Research 230-245 150-165 5-10 2-6

The lowering of BJP’s tally in Uttar Pradesh could be attributed to the cumulative anger of the people due to various issues, such as the farmers’ agitation, the Lakhimpur Kheri violence, high levels of unemployment and inflation and the divisive politics played out the BJP.

It may be recalled that in 2017, the BJP won 312 seats in the 403-member house. The Samajwadi Party led by Akhilesh Yadav had secured 47 seats while Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party had garnered 19.

Punjab may go AAP’s way

Having witnessed a great deal of political turmoil ahead of the Assembly elections, Punjab this time is likely to throw up a surprise result. According to most exit polls, AAP is all set to dislodge the ruling Congress.

As per the exit polls, AAP looks to be ahead of the rest of the pack, with most exit polls giving it a full majority in the 117-member Assembly.

Exit Poll AAP Congress SAD (Badal) BJP+
Times Now 70 22 19 5
Axis My India 76-90 19-31 7-11 1-4
News24-Today’s Chanakya poll 100 10 6 1

A couple of months before the polls, the ruling Congress in Punjab replaced its chief minister Amarinder Singh and gave the state its first Dalit chief minister in the form of Charanjit Singh Channi. However, this led to a split as Amarinder formed his own party, the Punjab Lok Congress.

Amarinder Singh allied with the BJP, which was looking for support after its longest ally, the Shiromani Akali Dal (Badal) left it in the wake of the farmers’ agitation. The SAD (Badal) in turn partnered with BSP for the polls making it a keen four-cornered fight.

In 2017, Amarinder had led Congress to a complete majority. The party had won 77 seats, followed by AAP at 20 and SAD (Badal) at 18.

Close call in Uttarakhand

The hill state of Uttarakhand remains too close to call for the exit polls too. While most have shown the Congress to be ahead in the state – in the plains of which too the reverberations of the farmers’ agitation were felt rather strongly – some polls have shown the BJP, led by Pushkar Singh Dhami, slightly ahead in the polls to the 70-member House. The Aam Aadmi Party had also thrown its hat into the state’s political ring this time.

In the 2017 elections, BJP had won 57 seats, Congress 11 and independents two seats.

The Zee News-Design Boxed exit poll has predicted 35-40 seats for the Congress, 26-30 for BJP and 0-3 for others.

The ABP-CVoter has projected BJP to win 37 seats with 41% votes; Congress 31 seats with 39% votes. It shows AAP getting 9% votes and others 11%.

The News24-Today’s Chanakya poll has given BJP 43 seats and Congress 24 with a probability of plus or minus seven seats. It has given others 3 seats.

In terms of vote percentage, the poll shows that BJP could secure 41% votes, Congress 34%, and others 25% with an error margin of 3% each.

A hung Assembly in Goa?

In Goa, where apart from the traditional rivals, the Congress and BJP, several other political parties, like AAP and Trinamool Congress, have been in the fray this time around. The outcome is likely to be a hung House according to most exit polls.

While the TMC has tied up with Maharashtrawadi Gomantak Party (MGM), the Congress had a truck with Goa Forward Party. The BJP contested all 40 seats on its own. All the polls show the ruling BJP’s tally stopping well short of the half-way mark this time.

As per ABP News exit poll, the BJP is likely to win 13-17 seats; Congress+ 12-16; AAP 1-5; TMC-MGP 5-9 and others 0-2.

The P-MARQ exit poll has given BJP 13-17; Congress+ 13-17; AAP 2-6; TMC-MGP 2-4; and others 0-4.

The India Today-Axis MyIndia poll has given BJP 14-18; Congress+ 15-20; TMC-MGP 2-5 and others 0-4.

The Jan Ki Baat-India News exit poll has given BJP 13-19; Congress+ 14-19; AAP 3-5; and TMC-MGP 1-2

Manipur may return to BJP

Most exit polls show BJP along with its allies, the National People’s Party, the Naga People’s Front and the Janata Dal (United), likely to retain power in Manipur, which has a 60-member House.

In the 2017 polls while Congress had emerged the single largest party with 28 seats, the BJP had despite getting only 21 still managed to cobble up a majority and form the government.

The Zee News-Design Boxed poll predicts BJP to get 32-38 seats and Congress 12-17.

The Axis My India poll has given BJP 33-43, Congress 4-8 and others 10-23.

The India TV-Ground Zero Research exit poll has given BJP 23-28 seats and Congress 10-14.

The India News-Jan Ki Baat has given BJP 23-28 and Congress+ 10-14.

The News 18 P-MARQ poll has given BJP 27-31 and Congress+ 11-17 seats.