Exit Polls Predict RJD-Led Mahagathbandhan Will Form Next Bihar Government

While one poll predicted the Tejashwi Yadav-led grand alliance will sweep the polls, most showed it leading over the National Democratic Alliance by a fair margin.

New Delhi: Most of the exit poll results for the Bihar assembly elections on Saturday evening clearly indicated that the popularity of the Nitish Kumar-led National Democratic Alliance government has diminished sharply in the state. Under Rashtriya Janata Dal leader Tejashwi Yadav, a rejuvenated `mahagathbandhan’ or grand alliance may form the next government in the state, the predicted. The poll of polls has also given a clear mandate to the opposition’s grand alliance, projecting it will win 122 seats against the NDA’s 112. This poll gave 55 seats to the NDA and eight to other parties.

The Today’s Chanakya exit poll predicted a landslide for the RJD-led grand alliance and gave it 180 seats in the 243-member House. It said the landslide victory would enable Tejashwi to topple Nitish as the chief minister.

C-Voter says grand alliance is ahead, but short of majority

The Times Now C-Voter exit poll said the Mahagathbandhan or Grand Alliance, in which the Congress and several left parties – Communist Party of India (Marxist-Leninist) Liberateion, CPI and CPI(M) – are the other partners, was poised to win around 120 seats in the 243-member House. Of these, it said the RJD would bag 85 and Congress 25 seats.

It said the National Democratic Alliance, comprising JD(U), BJP, Vikassheel Insaan Party of Mukesh Sahani, who is popularly known as ‘Son of Mallah’, and Hindustani Awam Morcha-Secular (HAM-S) of former chief minister Jitan Ram Manjhi, could end up winning 116 seats.

Among the Mahagathbandhan parties, RJD had contested 144 seats, Congress 70,  CPI(M-L) 19, CPI 6 and CPI(M) 4. Likewise, in the NDA, JD(U) had fielded candidates on 115 seats, BJP on 110, VIP on 11 and HAM on 7.

Also read: Bihar Elections: As Final Phase Voting Begins, a Look at How the Campaigns Went

A key player in the formation of the government, should the final result be close, would be Lok Janshakti Party leader Chirag Paswan, who had broken away from the NDA in the state and fielded his own candidates from 137 seats. Son of late Union minister Ram Vilas Paswan, he vowed that he would not let Nitish – who has ruled the state for 14 years – return to power.

The C-Voter exit poll also gave LJP one seat and six to others. These seven seats, as per the poll, can prove crucial in government formation.

This year there is also a third alliance which contested the Bihar polls. It comprised the Rashtriya Lok Samata Party (RLSP), a former ally of the BJP, which has this time contested as part of the Grand Secular Democratic Front along with Asaduddin Owaisi’s All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) and Rajesh Ranjan alias Pappu Yadav’s Jan Adhikar Party (JAP).

Republic TV survey gives 118-138 seats to grand alliance

The Republic TV-Jan Ki Baat survey projected that the opposition alliance was clearly ahead in the race for government formation. It gave 118-138 seats to the RJD-led alliance, 91-117 seats for the NDA and 5-8 to the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) and noted that other parties may get 3-6. This survey, despite its wide range of seats, did put the opposition alliance clearly ahead, but did not provide a definitive view of the situation.

The Republic TV exit poll also projected the Rashtriya Janata Dal will be emerging as the single largest party in the state. It said among the parties in the Mahagathbandhan, the RJD would win 79-91 seats, Congress 24-30 seats and Left parties 15-17 seats.

Also read: Nitish Kumar Once Had the Power to Unite Bihar’s Women Voters – But No Longer

Similarly, it projected that BJP would win more seats (60-75) than JD(U) (31-42 seats) in the NDA. While not giving any seat to HAM or VIP in the NDA, it gave AIMIM of the Grand Secular Democratic Front one seat.

C-Voter has projected that the RJD may become the single largest party with 85 seats, BJP may get 70 seats, JDU may grab 42, Congress 25 and LJP may have to satisfy with just 1 seat.

India Today-Axis My India poll puts alliance in clear

The India Today-Axis My India polls said the Mahagathbandhan will “storm to power in Bihar”, with the Tejashwi Yadav-led coalition projected to win between 139-161 seats. The alliance will get 44% of the votes, it said.

On the other hand, the NDA will only win between 69-91 seats and secure 39% of the votes, the poll predicted.

Among the smaller parties, Chirag Paswan’s LJP is projected to win 3-5 seats and the AIMIM, RLSP and other parties will win to 6-8 seats, the poll says.

Among perceptions of the chief ministerial candidates, Tejashwi Yadav is more popular. The poll says 44% of the respondents wanted Tejashwi Yadav to hold the top post in Bihar, while only 35% of the respondents said they preferred Nitish Kumar.

ABP-C-Voter survey indicates all outcomes are possible

The ABP-C-Voter exit poll said both the alliances were in a position to cross the magic number of 122 seats. It said the NDA was likely to bag 104-128 seats, while Mahagathbandhan too could end up winning 108-131 seats, which meant that both the outcomes were possible or there could be a hung house.

However, the survey was clear in one aspect – that Rashtriya Janata Dal was likely to emerge as the single largest party in Bihar after the results.

It also stated that while LJP would win 1-3 seats, other parties could win 4-8.

TV9-Bharatvarsha too predicts a hung house

The TV-9 Bharatvarsha exit poll showed the grand alliance ahead and projected it to win between 115-125 seats. On the other hand, it said, the NDA was expected to win 110-120 seats.

As per this exit poll, the LJP may LJP may get 3-5 seats while other parties may end up winning 10-15 seats.