In a democratic polity, a government that brands public protests as attempts at ‘regime change’ publicly advertises its own insecurity. It elevates its critics, treats its continuation in power as a national obligation and invites an obvious democratic response from the people: governments and prime ministers are replaceable.For a ruler accustomed to presenting his rule as a “non-biological” God-gifted route to a “Viksit Bharat” by 2047, the current language by his party betrays an unwelcome recognition that voters are likely to discard Narendra Modi and choose another, perhaps better, future for India. By casting legitimate dissent as an existential threat, the BJP has laid bare the realistic prospect of political transition that remains a foundational pillar of any democracy.The BJP has been extremely wary of Gen Z-induced changes in the neighbourhood. Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Nepal followed different political trajectories, but the common thread was the youth disenchantment that helped drive each confrontation with those in power. So sensitive is the Modi government to the phrase Gen Z that its official statements now use a more diffuse label – youth. PM Modi’s in-your-face vertical Instagram videos have come to an abrupt halt after drawing widespread public mockery and critical counters – rather than reverence.Confined to public fulminations on news television and official press briefings, the BJP is not engaging with the protesters in any meaningful way. For the first time in independent India, the Election Commission remains completely inaccessible to the opposition parties, former secretaries, a former lieutenant governor of Delhi and civil society leaders. The sole interface between the government and citizens, including the leader of the opposition and the civil society, is the brute force of the Delhi police and paramilitary forces.When access to institutions has been blocked and the police have become the government’s sole representatives, an argument over accountability has already developed into a wider confrontation over the unbridled exercise of power by the Modi regime.This carries particular risks for the BJP because there is a sense of political fatigue in the 13th year of Modi as prime minister. He can no longer get away by blaming the troubles of the people on his predecessors, or act as if he is anti-establishment. With demonstrators in Delhi and Mumbai hailing increasingly from urban centres and traditional BJP-supporting families and social groups, their encounter with a purely coercive face of the government inflicts severe political damage on Modi.Operating with a reduced parliamentary mandate of 240 seats, the BJP is already facing mounting multi-sectoral headwinds.Seven reasons the Modi government is worried• Reliable friendly parties are becoming less reliable for the BJPThe firing shots the government is listening to are from phone-a-friend political parties like the YSR Congress and the Biju Janata Dal, which were long dependable in moments of political stress for the BJP but now demand the removal of chief election commissioner Gyanesh Kumar. Jagan Mohan Reddy went so far as to say that he was wrong to have supported the controversial 2023 law on the appointment of election commissioners.M.K. Stalin has aligned himself with the protesters, plans to meet the president and is calling for the CEC’s removal. The same Stalin whom the government hopes will play ball and “abstain, at least” on the delimitation Bill is now mobilising against the ruling party.• The economic discontent is palpable and adds to the anger against ModiThe feel-bad around the Indian economy has punctured the gung-ho attempts by the Modi government to talk up the ‘7.8% growth’ narrative as part of its time-tested tactic to reverse the vibe generated by images of students and youngsters protesting on the streets.Headline GDP growth offers no political reassurance to the people when secure employment and rising real incomes remain elusive. High youth, urban and rural unemployment, elevated inflation and stagnant rural wages have driven down consumer confidence, as measured by the RBI, to persistently low levels for months now.But of special concern this year must be the prospect of the BJP’s own social base being hit. The flight of foreign capital, both portfolio and direct investment, reached record highs between January and June. The absence of a working relationship with the United States has damaged H-1B visa prospects for many educated Indians. With the rupee tanking, foreign-exchange reserves have been depleted, and the equity markets remain volatile, leaving little wriggle room for a trapped government.Both ends of the Indian population are straining under the weight of economic distress. Those with an ear to the ground can hear that the Modi government’s arrogant mismanagement of the economy, with favours dispensed on its cronies, forms the bedrock of the anger and discontent now visible on the streets.The Go Gyanu protests must be seen in continuation of the earlier Go Pradhan demonstrations, snowballing in momentum like a stone purposefully rolling downhill, as disparate sections of the society and political classes make common cause. The visible coming together of opposition political parties – along with civil society and the Cockroach Janta Party (CJP) – for this Go Gyanu mobilisation gives otherwise separate grievances a common focus.That convergence, with the vote chori issue as a lightning rod, has shattered the myth of Modi as a leader who has successfully sold manufactured political dominance as evidence of public consent and of his own invulnerability.• Public dissent has altered calculations inside the bureaucracySustained protests change how bureaucrats in India assess political and personal risk. A bureaucracy that expects the same government to remain indefinitely faces one set of incentives but officials who anticipate a change of regime become more conscious that today’s decisions will eventually face scrutiny.The ouster of education minister Dharmendra Pradhan after student protests in July, dubbed the ‘July Kranti’ by Yogendra Yadav, has rattled India’s bureaucratic steel frame, prompting officials to contemplate the prospect of a ‘regime change’ and a new political executive that will call for accounting of official decisions taken now.A story about serious differences in the Election Commission being published in a newspaper like the Indian Express is a sign of a huge crack in the highly controlled, leak-proof establishment run by Modi. It shows that bureaucrats are now behaving like they do under normal governments, leaking damaging stuff to newspapers and no longer operating under the threat of a dictatorial, diktat-issuing regime.This narrative control has slipped further out of Godi media and the government’s hands as the United States delivers public slights to the Modi regime. Elon Musk, whom the top brass of our security establishment met with his nanny and children in tow, is taunting India by suggesting Ambani calls the shots here. Marco Rubio going to Jamnagar and the US ambassador announcing that Jaishankar will meet him in Mumbai spells diplomatic surrender with a capital S, and not strategic sovereignty.• BJP’s institutional capture has become a part of popular politicsThe BJP benefits when questions about institutional independence remain confined to courts, specialist commentary and parliamentary procedure. It faces a different challenge when those questions become accessible, emotionally charged subjects of mass debate and street protests.Surveys by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies and Reuters-Oxford have confirmed the primacy of social media over traditional television as a source of information. More than half of respondents surveyed before and after the 2024 general election relied primarily on digital platforms.Social-media explainers, independent reporting and political commentary have helped bring arguments about the BJP’s goal of total institutional capture – and its push to have all autonomous institutions serve its political interests at the cost of the rights of the citizens – to audiences poorly served by news television’s partisan confrontations.The ‘fall of awe’, as journalist Ravi Shankar puts it, has meant that no institution is now revered as being beyond public criticism. The recent protests are directly against the Election Commission, a no-go terrain even 15 years ago. The word cockroach itself has its genesis in remarks made in the apex court, and the recent march to the Supreme Court has indirectly posed a challenge to the judiciary, urging them to play the role of providers of justice and not of an executive court.The BJP has been blindsided because such apparently technical and complex issues like the CEC’s appointment, electoral administration or judicial accountability have become an argument about fairness that people recognise in their own lives. This emotional resonance has increased the street credibility of the opposition’s politics, something the BJP never saw coming.• BJP’s claim of its MY (mahila and young) vote-bank no longer holds trueThe BJP, in the Bihar assembly election, said it was confident of its own ‘MY’ base, proudly proclaiming Mahila and Youth as its committed source of electoral strength. Earlier this year, attempts to project the delimitation Bill as one securing women’s reservation in parliament failed to gain traction despite intensive publicity. For all the press conferences and loud proclamations that the Bill was for women’s empowerment, it did not pass and neither did the spin.On ‘youth’, the NITI Aayog has estimated that 8.7 crore young Indians fall in the NEET category (Not in Education, Employment or Training). Demographic size alone does not produce a common political identity because Indians differ sharply by caste, class, gender, region, language and opportunity. But shared experiences of blocked recruitment, leaked examination papers, insecure work and coercive policing at the hands of the Modi regime have connected groups that would have otherwise remained politically separate.United Nations population projections suggest that by 2029, India’s Gen Z (aged 18 to 32) could number nearly 380 million people. That would make it India’s largest adult generation, overtaking Millennials and constituting roughly 25% of the adult population by 2029. The visible presence of young people on the streets and the brutal police response to them has punctured the ‘MY’ cry of the BJP for now. When the young and the women encounter the regime solely through barricades, internet shutdowns and police action, the BJP has wrecked its own claim to represent their aspirations.• Dipke’s Dalit identity, encompassing a wider youth politics, is a new challengeCJP founder Abhijeet Dipke’s Dalit identity poses a new and formidable challenge for the BJP. It lies in his ability to combine social representation, as a proud Dalit hailing Dr B.R. Ambedkar, with a broader agenda around education, employment and institutional accountability for the youth.Dipke has shown signs that he can build a durable coalition across caste and class while retaining the authority that comes from his own social location. Photo: PTI.The BJP is accustomed to dealing with Dalit leaders whose politics remain largely confined to identity mobilisation – Mayawati, Ramdas Athawale, Jitan Ram Manjhi, Chirag Paswan, Chandrashekhar Azad – through alliances, accommodation or electoral competition. A younger mobilisation operating outside those arrangements is harder for the BJP to manage, since Dipke’s politics is undergirded by his social identity yet extends well beyond it, linking Dalit concerns with broader youth discontent over education and employment.This touches two points of long-standing BJP-RSS discomfort: the place of Dalits within Hindutva ideology, and Modi’s vulnerability on jobs and education.Dipke has shown signs that he can build a durable coalition across caste and class while retaining the authority that comes from his own social location. By connecting the politics of social justice with widely shared grievances over jobs, education and institutional fairness, he is forcing the BJP to confront several of its social, political and economic vulnerabilities at once. Its political and electoral significance will depend on organisation, reach and staying power but the BJP, so far, seems unprepared for this development.• A party built by street mobilisation knows its forceThe BJP is a party that came to political power through street mobilisations in the mid-to-late 1980s and 1990s, which saw the Hindutva upsurge crystallise into a durable and loyal electoral base that still underpins the party.That helps explain its desire to subdue and suppress all mass movements outside its control. It knows street mobilisations and public protests can create leaders, connect grievances and alter the terms of political debate well before they produce an electoral result. Watching another youth-led movement confront the Hindutva regime in its 13th consecutive year therefore produces understandable anxiety in Nagpur and Delhi.If the Modi regime’s response remains unchanged, the present protests will only broaden and gather force. A bull-headed approach of refusing to engage politically, treating dissent as subversion and relying on state coercion will give separate groups a common adversary in the BJP, and newer grievances will emerge as lightning rods to bring them together.By invoking the bogey of ‘regime change’, the BJP has raised the stakes itself. It has turned the demands for democratic accountability into a test of its political legitimacy and given young Indians an incentive to discover how far their collective strength can reach.