This piece was first published on The India Cable – a premium newsletter from The Wire & Galileo Ideas – and has been republished here. To subscribe to The India Cable, click here.Three Hindi heartland states have gone to Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), virtually on the eve of the 2024 elections to the 18th Lok Sabha. Doubtless, it’s a big setback for the Congress party, and the INDIA bloc, which lay dormant for the duration of the campaign for elections to Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Chhattisgarh.Illustration: Pariplab ChakrabortyBut it remains to be seen whether this will demoralise Congress star campaigners Rahul Gandhi and his sister Priyanka. Will this defeat be a setback to Rahul’s bid for over a year to challenge the Sangh’s communal and divisive agenda? Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo Yatra had revived much hope among all those who craved for the return of the times before Modi – happier, more tolerant and accommodating.On the first day of the winter session of parliament, thumping his chest, a triumphant Modi proudly announced, “Ek akela kitnon ko bhari pad raha hai.” Will the INDIA bloc be crushed by this defeat, or will it rise to face the challenge of the Lone Ranger?There are many issues to be pondered while analysing this humiliating defeat of the Congress party. The BJP alone won’t be gloating over the victory in Chhattisgarh, for instance. Gautam Adani, the shining star of India’s billionaire club, whom Modi fondly nurtures, would also be exulting. Outgoing Chhattisgarh chief minister Bhupesh Baghel had warned that a BJP victory would open the floodgates for Adani’s exploitation of this mineral-rich tribal state.Most Rajasthan watchers had pronounced chief minister Ashok Gehlot a lost cause much before elections were announced, and with some justification, because of the way in which Gehlot refused to share power with the young, promising and hard-working Sachin Pilot, whom the Congress high command had sent to Rajasthan after its defeat in 2013 to revive the party’s fortunes.As Pradesh Congress Committee president, he did creditable work in eastern Rajasthan, which is dominated by Pilot’s Gujjar community. When the Congress offered Gehlot its national presidency, he wouldn’t accept if it meant relinquishing Rajasthan to Pilot. People were witness to Gehlot’s lust for power and the humiliation of Pilot, and were sure to teach him a lesson. Rahul Gandhi himself was sceptical of a victory in Rajasthan. So the Congress party’s defeat in Rajasthan is not a shock like the debacle in Madhya Pradesh. It shows that if Gehlot and Pilot had worked together as a team for five years, the Congress could have beaten the past trend of BJP alternating in office with the Congress.Also read: Why 2024 Is Going to Be an Existential Fight for the INDIA AllianceThe Congress has been messing up Madhya Pradesh since 2018, when it chose that ageing has-been Kamal Nath to lead the party and be the chief ministerial candidate. Even after the Congress won in 2018, Kamal Nath refused to hand over his party post to rival Jyotiraditya Scindia, resulting in the fall of the Congress government shortly after its formation, due to Scindia’s rebellion.But more importantly, Kamal Nath is a Hindutva proponent and a moneybag, the wrong choice to lead a state with a large population of tribals, Scheduled Castes, and Other Backward Classes (OBCs). A very influential and assertive section of upper castes have held the reins of power all along.The Congress party was, therefore, caught between two contradictions. On the one hand, Rahul Gandhi was promising a caste census if the Congress came to power, and on the other, the party’s chief ministerial candidate was an upper-caste Hindutva proponent. Besides, Rahul’s call for opening a ‘Mohabbat ki dukaan’ with Kamal Nath in tow lacked conviction and sounded hollow.Perhaps we should not entirely blame the Congress leadership. After Modi’s arrival on the national scene, the Congress has been so badly weakened that the party’s high command barely exists and for lack of it, its satraps have become a law unto themselves.But the party high command, including Rahul, Sonia and Congress president Malikarjun Kharge, must share a considerable degree of blame. Having taken the lead in forming the INDIA alliance, Rahul and Kharge abandoned the idea soon, when the time came to demonstrate unity in the INDIA alliance. The results in these three states would not have been any worse than this. A victory could have been possible. But more importantly, it would have sent the message of a national alliance against the BJP.Probably in 1988, V.P. Singh held a rally in Agra. There were many leaders on the stage, including Chaudhary Devi Lal and N.T. Rama Rao, then Andhra Pradesh chief minister, whose heavily accented Hindi was hard to understand. But that rally sent out the message of the emergence of the National Front. In the 1989 elections, the National Front virtually drew a blank in the South, but Singh remained committed to it. His cabinet included Murasoli Maran of the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) as urban development minister, K.P. Unnikrishnan in charge of telecom, shipping and surface transport, and P. Upendra as information and broadcasting minister, all heading important ministries.The same principle was followed by subsequent national alliances like the United Front led by Deve Gowda. I.K. Gujral, Atal Behari Vajpayee, and even Sonia Gandhi, who brought together the United Progressive Alliance (UPA), all followed the pattern. In the run-up to the 2004 general elections led by Sonia Gandhi, despite stiff opposition in the Congress party, she struck an alliance with the newly formed Telangana Rashtra Samithi (now, Bharat Rashtra Samithi) and gave it a place in Manmohan Singh’s cabinet.It takes no time to announce a front, but it is much more difficult to keep it together. Like most Congressmen, Manmohan Singh did not seem to be too pleased with some of his ministers from coalition parties. But Sonia kept them in good humour throughout. Kharge and Rahul should learn that lesson fast before the situation gets completely out of hand.Faraz Ahmad is a senior journalist based in Delhi.