The Bilaspur high court’s decision to strike down the increase in reservations for OBCs in Chhattisgarh, though foreseen, has come as a jolt to the Congress government. However, the Bhupesh Baghel government has only its own ill-preparedness to blame.Baghel had been quick to announce an increase in reservation quotas without any administrative or legal advice, based simply on his whim that the OBCs deserve 27% reservation. In August, Baghel’s government announced an increase in the existing quota for Scheduled Caste (SC) communities from 12% to 13% and an increase from 14% to 27% for OBC. The Schedule Tribe (ST) quota in the state remained at 32%.Curiously though, while disposing the eleven petitions against the Baghel government’s decision to implement 82% reservation (after factoring in the 10% EWS quota) in jobs and education, the Chhattisgarh high court struck down only the hike in the OBC quota. The 1% increase in quota for SCs and the 10% for the EWS quota remain, meaning the state will have 69% reservations, exceeding the 50% cap implemented by the Supreme Court. The 10% quota for the EWS has been retained on the basis of a constitutional amendment brought by the Modi government and the apex court has yet to take a view on it.Also read: The Logic Behind Chhattisgarh Government’s Decision to Increase ReservationsThe decision seems all the more curious because the Baghel government has argued that the increase in OBC quotas was based on population figures for various communities in the state. The government had concluded that the OBCs constitute 45% of the population in the state.Population share and reservationThe population of SCs was believed to be 12%, so the previous BJP government in the state led by Raman Singh had reduced its quota from 13% to 12. The Baghel government overturned it, without offering any explanation as to why the population count did not matter in the case of reservations for SCs. The ST population, constituting 32%, has an equal share of reservation in government education and jobs.The Raman Singh government had implemented the quota policy in 2010, which stood at 12% for SC, 32% for ST and 14% for OBCs. A PIL had been filed against the increase in reservations immediately because it took the total reservation to 58%.In its 2013 decision, the Bilaspur high court allowed the implementation of the quota policy with the caveat that any vacancy filled due to the implementation of the policy would be subject to the final disposal of the case which has yet to come.Meanwhile, Baghel announced his new quota policy, defending it vociferously in the absence of sufficient data. Baghel’s main argument appears to be that OBC’s constitute a majority in Chhattisgarh and should, therefore, get a fair share in jobs and education. However, there is no data available which fairly determines that the OBCs form 45% of the population in the state.The Chhattisgarh high court. Photo: highcourt.cg.gov.inNo commission was constituted to ascertain the population figures of different communities prior to the hike. This is a practice frowned upon by the Supreme Court as seen in Atyant Pichhara Barg Chhatra Sangh vs Jharkhand State Vaishya Federation (2006).The apex court does not approve of tinkering with quotas based on insufficient data, a line of reasoning followed by the Bilaspur high court. Most petitions before challenging the Baghel government’s decision said the move was based on data from the NSSO and RBI and not the census. The petitions also questioned why the 1% increase in reservations for the SCs was approved.Also Read: Explainer: The 1993 SC Judgment Capping Quotas at 50%, Disallowing Them for the PoorThe last caste census data is from 1931. This, combined with the NSSO data, is unscientific and inaccurate for the present configuration of the population. It also does not take into account the creamy layer amongst the OBC, a guidelines issued in the Indira Sawhney judgment.What can Baghel do?If Baghel is serious about implementing the policy, he will have to form a credible commission which determines the actual size and share of the OBCs in the population. Furthermore, he could wait for the 2021 census but the home ministry has announced that the census would not enumerate the OBC population.On another level, the OBC quota is most certainly only a political exigency. Bhupesh Baghel has been basking in its short-lived glory and has been making speeches in Bihar and Rajasthan extolling his decision. He may not be able to extract any political mileage from it during election campaigns in Maharashtra and Haryana.With 69% reservation, Chhattisgarh is now at par with Tamil Nadu. But while Tamil Nadu has a 150-year old history of a struggle for reservations and a better-defined quota system, Chhattisgarh is fresh in the game and will need to sharpen its skills.