New Delhi: While all eyes are on the Bihar assembly elections, the counting of votes for by-elections to 58 assembly seats in 11 other states on Tuesday is being seen by many as a vote for or against the Central government’s policies – particularly those related to its handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, the migrant labour crisis, the situation on the China border and the new farm and labour laws.Madhya Pradesh: Many Congress, BJP leaders switch sidesIn view of their likely impact on the continuation of the Shivraj Singh Chouhan-led BJP government, the by-polls to the 28 seats in Madhya Pradesh will be closely followed. The BJP at the moment has 107 members in the 230-member Assembly and needs nine more to have a full majority of its own. At the moment, it has the backing of two BSP, one SP and one independent MLA.These elections come barely seven months after BJP had with the breakaway faction of the Congress, led by its former Union minister Jyotiraditya Scindia, dislodged the 15-month-old Kamal Nath government and re-installed Shivraj Singh Chouhan as chief minister in March this year.With 22 Congress MLAs walking away with Scindia, resigning their assembly seats and joining the BJP, their seats had fallen vacant. The Congress is now left with 88 MLAs and it would need to win all the 28 seats to reach the magic figure of 116 once again.The Congress has accused Scindia and his supporters of betrayal and is also seeking a vote on how its government had waived farm loans during its rule. It is also accusing the Centre of hurting the interest of small farmers through the new farm laws.Scindia wields considerable influence in 16 seats that fall in the Gwalior-Chambal region. Here, the votes from the Scheduled Caste communities play a significant role in determining the outcome of the elections.However, with the BJP fielding a large number of MLAs who had left the Congress with Scindia, there has led to resentment among its local leaders in at least 19 out of 28 seats. In six of these, its leaders revolted and contested on tickets of either the Congress or other parties.However, the exit polls have predicted that BJP is likely to win 16-18 seats with Congress bagging the remaining 10-12 seats and Mayawati’s BSP getting 0-1 seat. If this were to happen, it would in line with the way Madhya Pradesh has voted in by-elections in the past. Between 2009 and 2019, around two-thirds of the by-polls in the state have been won by the ruling party – this percentage compares quite high to the 60% in Uttar Pradesh and around 40% in Rajasthan.Gwalior EastThere are three constituencies in Madhya Pradesh where the Congress and BJP candidates of the 2018 assembly polls have switched sides. Gwalior East is one of them. Here Satish Sikarwar was a BJP candidate in 2018 while Munnalal Goyal had won on a Congress ticket. Since Goyal left the Congress and joined BJP, he has been given the ticket, while an agitated Sikarwar joined the Congress and is now its candidate.SurkhiSurkhi is another seat where the Congress and BJP candidates have swapped their candidates. In 2018, the seat was won by Govind Singh of the Congress who also became a minister in the Kamal Nath government. However, he quit the party and joined the BJP, which has fielded him. Parul Sahu, who had lost then, is this time contesting on a Congress ticket.SumawaliA similar story played out in Sumawali where Aidal Singh Kansana of the Congress had defeated Ajab Singh Kushwaha of the BJP in 2018 polls. After Kansana joined the BJP and the party gave him the ticket, Kushwaha resigned and joined the Congress, which gladly fielded him against his arch-rival.BamoriAnother seat to look out for this time would be Bamori, where former cabinet minister in the Shivraj Chouhan government, Kanhaiya Lal Agarwal, is this time contesting as a Congress candidate. He is a former cabinet minister under Shivraj Chouhan and is now contesting on a Congress ticket against Mahendra Sisodia of the BJP.GohadThe election in Gohad is also one about blood, honour and pride. Here, former minister Lal Singh Arya has been denied the ticket by the BJP this time and instead it has fielded former Congress leader Ranveer Jatav.Arya, who was a Dalit leader of the of BJP in Chambal, was prosecuted for the murder of Jatav’s father. Though the party has made him the national president of the Scheduled Caste Front, it remains to be seen how much damage, if at all, he would cause to Jatav. The Congress candidate this time is Mewaram Jatav while Yashwant Patwari of the Bahujan Samaj Party is the third main candidate in the contest.To prevent any violence, the administration had confined all these three candidates to the PWD guest house on the voting day.BJP leader Jyotiraditya Scindia being welcomed by his supporters on his arrival at Bhopal Airport, Thursday, March 12, 2020. Photo: PTIGujarat: BJP fields five Congress turncoats, three of its ownIn Gujarat, where by-elections are being held to eight seats, the outcome of the elections is not likely to make a major difference in the continuation of the existing BJP government that has 110 MLAs in the 182-member assembly. The combined opposition at present has 70 members, of which the Congress has the most with 66.The Congress had in 2017 assembly polls won all these eight seats to which elections are now being held. In these elections, BJP had won a simple majority with 99 seats in the 182-member house. The Congress had won 77. This year, eight of its MLAs resigned, bringing its total tally to 65.The exit polls have predicted that BJP may win six-seven seats out of the eight seats which fell vacant after Congress MLAs defected to the ruling party.The BJP has given tickets to five former Congress legislators who quit as MLAs while on the remaining three seats, it has fielded its own former candidates from the remaining three.The Congress had in 2017 assembly polls won all these eight seats to which elections are now being held. In these elections, BJP had won a simple majority with 99 seats in the 182-member house. The Congress had won 77.KapradaThis seat is this time witnessing a fight between two former close associates. As with several seats in Madhya Pradesh, the Kaprada seat in Gujarat is one where BJP has fielded a Congress rebel. The seat was earlier represented by Jitu Chaudhary of the Congress, who resigned before the Rajya Sabha elections in June and joined the BJP. After BJP gave its ticket to Chaudhary, Congress roped in his former associate, Babu Vadthaa, who had left the BJP and joined it around four years ago. Hailing from the Vaarli community, he has a strong following among the Adivasis and is said to be the first man ever from the community to contest the elections.Karnataka: BJP-Congress have more than pride at stake In Karnataka, the BJP now enjoys a clear majority in the 224-member house with 117 seats of its own and the support of three independent MLAs. However, the by-elections to the seats of Sira (Tumkur) and Rajarajeshwari Nagar (Bengaluru) were fought with much zeal by all parties.The state has witnessed a lot of strife for power among the three main parties – BJP, Congress and Janata Dal (Secular) – ever since the 2018 assembly polls when the Congress, which now has 67 seats, and its former coalition partner, Janata Dal (Secular), which has 33 seats, had managed to stitch up a majority.Though the BJP had emerged as the single largest party with 104 seats, the Congress with 80 seats had joined hands with JD(S) that had 37 and formed the government with H.D. Kumaraswamy as chief minister. However, B.S. Yediyurappa was installed as chief minister in July 2019.SiraThe Sira seat fell vacant following the death of JD(S) legislator B. Sathyanarayana. This time, the party has fielded Ammajamma while the BJP has given the ticket to Dr Rajesh Gowda and the Congress to T.B. Jayachandra.As per the C-Voter exit poll, the BJP candidate is likely to win with the Congress and JD(S) taking the second and third place respectively. BJP national secretary C.T. Ravi claimed that the party believed it would win Sira by around 15,000 votes. However, Karnataka PCC working president Eshwar Khandre cautioned that exit polls can go wrong and that sometimes it appears that the ruling party is winning, when that is exactly not the case.R.R. NagarIn the R.R. Nagar seat, which fell vacant in July 2019 after its representative and Congress MLA N. Munirathna defected to the BJP, the contest this time is between Munirathna – who is now a BJP candidate – and H. Kusuma of the Congress and Krishnamurthy of the JD(S).As per the exit polls, Munirathna stands a good chance of retaining the seat and BJP believes that he would win by around 25,000 votes against his nearest rival of the Congress.However, as Khandre said, “Voters know better, and they are in our favour. Our internal survey says Congress will win both seats.”Karnataka CM B.S. Yediyurappa. Credit: PTIJharkhand: State witnesses polls on a seat vacated by CM, anotherIn Jharkhand, by-elections were held to the Dumka and Bermo assembly seats on November 3. While 12 candidates contested the Dumka seat, 16 were in the fray in Bermo.The by-elections will not impact the power equation in the state which has 82 members in the assembly. The Jharkhand Mukti Morcha-led government enjoys a full majority of 48 seats with the support of Congress that has 17 members and other parties like RJD, NCP and CPI(ML) with one each.DumkaThe by-elections to this seat were necessitated after the president of Jharkhand Mukti Morcha and chief minister Hemant Soren vacated it, while retaining the Barhait seat following the assembly elections in December 2019.This time, JMM has fielded Soren’s younger brother Basant from the seat. He is taking on the BJP’s former cabinet minister Lois Marandi.BermoThis seat had fallen vacant following the death of Congress MLA Rajendra Singh due to an illness. This time the Congress has fielded Singh’s son, Anoop, from the seat. He would be taking on BJP’s Yogeshwar Mahato.Manipur: With few candidates, Manipur awaits results of very straight fightsOf the 13 assembly constituencies that are lying vacant in the 60-member Manipur Legislative Assembly following disqualification and resignation of MLAs, the Election Commission held polls to four seats on November 7. These constituencies are Wangoi in Imphal West district, Saitu in Kangpokpi district and Lilong and Wangjing-Tentha in Thoubal district.A total of 11 candidates contested these by-elections, which were necessitated after Congress MLAs from these seats resigned, quit their party and joined the BJP.The BJP has is contesting three seats and is supporting an independent candidate in The Congress has fielded its candidates on all the four seats while the NPP is contesting from Wangoi. In three of the seats, there are three candidates each.The saffron party had formed its first government in the state in 2017 with N. Biren Singh as the chief minister. The BJP had won 21 seats, got the support of National People’s Party, Naga People’s Front and the Lok Janshakti Party. Though the Congress emerged as the single largest party with 28 seats, it was unable to form the government. Subsequently, seven Congress MLAs – who helped the BJP in forming its government – had also joined the saffron party. They were later barred by the high court from entering the assembly.The by-elections are unlikely to make any significant change as the BJP-led coalition has a clear majority with 34 seats in the 60-member assembly, with the Congress having 17 members and AITC one.SaituSaitu assembly constituency would probably go down in history as one of the few to witness a direct contest in an assembly election between just two parties. Here, it is a direct fight between Congress candidate Lamtinthang Haokip and BJP’s Ngamthang Haokip.Incidentally, following the voting, Lamtinthang and Manipur Pradesh Congress Committee had demanded a re-poll in six polling stations alleging irregularities at the behest of the BJP.The MPCC had in a statement said: “The polling procedure of the said polling station was irregular to the extent that since the start of the polling process, all voting has been done through proxy voting.”The party had also alleged that cadres of Kuki Revolutionary Army – which is under Suspension for Operation with the Central and State government – roamed the area and campaigned for the BJP candidate. Lamtinthang also alleged that the KRA tried to kill him recently when six rounds were fired while he was campaigning in Kangchup Tuikun village on October 28.NagalandThe by-elections to the Southern Angami-I constituency and Pungro-Kiphire constituency were held in Nagaland on November 3.Southern AngamiIn Southern Angami seat, where the election took place following the death of sitting MLA and former Nagaland assembly speaker Vikho-o Yhoshü in December 2019, the ruling Nationalist Democratic Progressive Party (NDPP) has fielded a former youth leader and social worker Medo Yhokha.The candidate for the opposition Naga People’s Front (NPF) is an entrepreneur, Kikovi Kirha. The former personal assistant of Yhoshu, Seyievilie Peter Zashumo, is contesting as an Independent but is in serious contention.Pungro KiphireIn the Pungro-Kiphire, the contest is between Lirimong Sangtam of NDPP’s ally Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Congress candidate Khaseo Anar. There are also three Independents in the fray – S. Kiusumew Yimchunger, K. Shellumthong Yhimchunger and T. Yangseo Sangtam – whose presence has added much twist in the tale.This seat had fallen vacant after NPF MLA T. Torechu passed away in December 2019. However, NPF has decided not to field any candidate this time.ChhattisgarhMarwahiThe election to the Marwahi assembly seat in Chhattisgarh was necessitated following the demise of Janata Congress Chhattisgarh (J) MLA and former chief minister Ajit Jogi in May this year and as the nomination of his wife, Richa Jogi, was rejected on technical grounds. The JCC(J) subsequently extended support to the BJP candidate, Gambir Singh, saying the Congress had insulted Jogi. The Congress has this time fielded Krishan Kumar Dhruv.The election to this pocket borough of the Jogis assumes significance since this is the first time in around two decades that no one from the family is contesting this seat.Janata Congress chief Amit Jogi. Photo: amitjogi/FacebookOdisha: BJP-BJD field sons of deceased party MLAs in by-pollsTwo assembly seats in Odisha went into by-polls this year following the death of their incumbent legislators.Balasore SadarThe Balasore Sadar seat had fallen vacant after the death of its sitting MLA, Madan Mohan Dutta of the BJP. The party has this time fielded his son, Manas Dutta, and he is taking on Mamata Kundu of the Congress and Swarup Kumar Das of the Biju Janata Dal.As per the exit polls, the sympathy wave is expected to work for Dutta and the second position is likely to go to the BJD candidate.TirtolIn Tirtol, the election was necessitated by the death of MLA Bishnu Charan Das of the Biju Janata Dal. Here the BJD has fielded his son, Bijay Shankar Das, as its candidate.Though the seat will not alter the political dynamics in any way, the Naveen Patnaik government left no stone unturned to press for Bijay’s election. It deployed over a dozen ministers and 35 legislators for his campaign.Bijay is pitted against Himansu Bhushan Mallick of the Congress and Rajkishore Behera of the BJP.Haryana: Olympian wrestler gets a second shot at assembly seat In the lone by-poll in Haryana’s Baroda seat, which fell vacant after the death of Sri Krishna Hooda of the Congress in April this year, Bharatiya Janata Party’s Yogeshwar Dutt is this time fighting it out for the second time in two years to make it to the assembly.An Olympic medallist, Dutt had lost to Hooda by 19,000 votes in the 2019 polls. This time, he has been fielded opposite Indu Raj Narwal of the Congress, which has won this Jat-dominated seat for four consecutive times.Uttar Pradesh: Keen contests on the cards in UPIn Uttar Pradesh, the by-elections to seven assembly seats were held on November 3. The election may not alter the complexion of the 403-member house, where the BJP has a complete majority with 306 members of its own and 12 alliance partners, the polls would reflect on how people have taken various developments in the state.In the past year, there have been major developments on issues such as the construction of Ram Temple, the Hathras gangrape and murder, the recent spate of encounters and arrests of activists and journalists by the Yogi Adityanath government.The chief minister has personally led the campaign and addressed many rallies. On the other hand, prominent leaders of the Congress, Bahujan Samaj Party and even Samajwadi Party stayed away.As per the exit polls, the BJP can win five to six seats, the Samajwadi Party one or two and the BSP nil or one.