The by-election results from Bihar and Madhya Pradesh on Monday (August 3) have given the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) a jolt. They serve as an uncomfortable reminder that its political dominance cannot be taken for granted, even in its most secure seats and states. The outcome has also raised questions about the durability of the Modi brand, the state of anti-incumbency, and the opposition’s ability to consolidate votes against the BJP. In a contest, in the Hindi belt where the BJP takes its lead for granted, these results have been shaped by wider political sentiment – the results suggest deeper dissatisfaction with the Modi regime than a single campaign setback.The results on Election Commission of India’s official website show that Jan Suraaj Party (JSP) founder Prashant Kishor has defeated BJP candidate Neeraj Kumar Sinha by a margin of 19,324 votes in the Bankipur assembly seat in Bihar. Kishor got 64,151 votes, whereas Sinha secured 44,827 votes. Meanwhile, Congress candidate Ghanshyam Singh has won from the Datia assembly seat in Madhya Pradesh, defeating the BJP’s Ashutosh Tiwari by more than 6,000 votes. Singh got 66,757 votes against Tiwari’s 60,741.For Modi, the concern is not only the loss of its safest seat but the signals it sends about future contests.First, the BJP has lost the Bankipur assembly seat associated with its national president Nitin Nabin and his father – an urban constituency dominated by specific caste groups which made it one of the most secure seats for the party. The BJP has not lost this since 1995. The defeat is significant not only because of the family connection, but because it happened in a seat where the party deployed massive organisational strength, national leadership and huge resources. If the BJP can lose there, it suggests that even its strongest positions are vulnerable when public discontent hardens into an anti-BJP vote. The party can no longer rely on historical dominance or organisational strength. For a party that often projects itself as electorally unshakeable, that is a damaging message.Second, the losses have happened in bypolls, where parties of the state governments in power are routinely supposed to win. These are states where BJP has been in power for over two decades and these are the states where the BJP, despite failing to get an overall majority, did very well in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. The BJP is supremely confident about its organisation, which took a beating in Datia too. The Datia election in Madhya Pradesh was triggered by the disqualification of the sitting Congress MLA, who had wrested the seat from BJP heavyweight and former minister Narottam Misra in 2023 in a rare win. He was suspended by the Congress a day before the counting but the BJP was confident that its ‘organisation’ will win, despite Narottam Misra being denied the ticket this time. That bluster too has taken a beating.Also read: Rampage in Datia, Stunned in Bankipur: BJP’s Bypoll Picks Spark TurmoilThird, the conversation about what is the ‘political impact’ of street movements has been partially answered. The political damage to Modi from the youth movement in Delhi has gone beyond the capital and entered the political conversation on the ground. The anger, ridicule and public criticism directed at Modi during the protests has weakened the image of authority and invincibility that the BJP and Godi media have long manufactured around him. People are increasingly associating Modi with the phrase “56 inch ka chota bandar (a 56-inch tall small monkey)” instead of his carefully constructed strongman persona. The BJP spent a decade building the brand of Modi as a highly respected and unassailable leader but it is now visibly compromised in the public domain. The party’s reliance on Modi as its central electoral asset means any erosion in his appeal has broader consequences. A Bloomberg analysis noted that the personal popularity of Modi accounted for roughly 40% of the total BJP vote share. The erosion of this specific personal brand and his dented his aura represents a significant electoral loss for the ruling party and its future campaigns.Fourth, the results in both Bankipur and Datia reflect a wider anger over unemployment, education and police action against students, with these grievances now being directed at the BJP itself. The anger is comprehensive and targets the Modi government directly. The by-election results in Bankipur and Datia prove that these material issues have successfully overridden emotional or ideological appeals. A paper leak or a protest crackdown can begin as a specific issue, but those concerns have become symbols of broader frustration with governance under Modi. That creates a larger anti-incumbency sentiment that is harder for the BJP to manage through campaign messaging alone, as shown by the result in Bankipur.Fifth, the result in Bankipur reinforces the idea that voters opposed to Modi are increasingly willing to consolidate behind the candidate best placed to defeat the BJP. This is politically important because voters who oppose Modi currently form a national majority, and may be less interested in party loyalty than in ideological effectiveness. If that pattern continues, the BJP may find that attempts to split anti-BJP votes through multiple opposition candidates become less useful than before. Tacit support to build up candidates from parties like the Aam Aadmi Party or the Trinamool Congress to divide the anti-BJP vote and damage the Congress party may no longer be an effective tactic. The lesson from this by-election is that the anti-BJP electorate can consolidate when it believes the stakes are high, and directly mirrors recent electoral trends witnessed against the right and far-right in the United Kingdom and France.Also read: ‘Women Being Told They Won’t Get Welfare Benefits If They Don’t Vote for BJP’: Prashant Kishor Ahead of Bankipur BypollSixth, the results in Bankipur and Datia come as a morale booster for the opposition parties to enter the coming round of state assembly elections with greater enthusiasm, coordination and political aggression. It will particularly benefit leaders like Rahul Gandhi who have been at the forefront of opposing Modi and the BJP. If voters are already showing a willingness to back the strongest anti-BJP option, then better seat-level cooperation – say among the Congress and the Samajwadi Party in Uttar Pradesh – could make it electorally very difficult for the BJP. Modi has benefited from fragmented opposition contests and vote division, but these bypolls suggest that the political environment may be changing. If opposition parties learn from this, they would have found a replicable method to defeat the BJP at the individual constituency level.Seventh, as Modi’s political authority weakens, both the media and the courts may become more assertive in testing the limits of his government. When a leader appears dominant, institutions often behave cautiously. When that dominance slips, criticism becomes easier, scrutiny sharpens and actors who previously appeared deferential may start acting with greater independence. That does not mean institutions suddenly change overnight, but it does mean political weakness can create space for more aggressive reporting and more active judicial intervention. This resurgence of institutional autonomy removes the protection the ruling party previously enjoyed from intense public scrutiny and judicial review.What makes these by-election results particularly important is that they combine symbolic loss for the BJP with a clear political signal. For the BJP, the immediate challenge is not simply to explain one defeat but to accept that it reflects a broader shift in voter mood. Datia in Madhya Pradesh is rural but Bankipur in Patna is a template for the urban vote, which reflects upper caste and upper class sentiment in the Hindi belt, something the BJP has boasted of a huge advantage in. This by-election may be remembered as more than a local upset.