The Supreme Court’s recent decision to order a Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) probe into the Karur tragedy, monitored by a commission led by Justice Ajay Rastogi, a retired Supreme Court judge, has sparked a far more significant debate in Tamil Nadu than a mere legal one. While on paper, it appears to be a step toward justice and transparency, beneath that veneer lies a more intricate story that intertwines politics, power, and the quiet calculations of influence that could reshape the state’s political landscape.The court’s decision has left many legal experts uneasy. Critics argue that the court acted with unusual haste in transferring the case to the CBI when both the state-appointed inquiry led by Justice Aruna Jagadeesan and the Special Investigation Team (SIT) formed by the Madras high court had only just begun their work. There were no proven complaints of bias or obstruction by state agencies that could really justify central intervention. Moreover, the Supreme Court’s directive that Tamil police officers be excluded from the probe into the stampede has drawn concern for implicitly assuming bias based solely on linguistic identity.Senior advocate K.M. Vijayan described the rush to hand over the case to the CBI as unnecessary and intriguing. Adding to the unease was the revelation that two of the petitioners had allegedly been included through fraudulent means, a fact presented to the court on the very day of the verdict. Even more telling, the Tamizhaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) led by actor-politician Vijay never sought a CBI investigation.In fact, only weeks earlier, Vijay had dismissed another CBI probe in a Tamil Nadu custodial death case as a “farce” and a delaying tactic by the ruling Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK). The petition seeking a CBI probe for the Karur case, it turned out, came from G.S. Mani, a BJP functionary from the party’s Tamil Nadu IT Cell. This single detail shifts the frame of the entire debate from one of justice to one of motive.Predictably, the BJP, the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK), and the TVK have all welcomed the Court’s order, while the ruling DMK has responded with cautious skepticism. The immediate question in political circles and for television debates is who stands to gain from this move. Some believe the TVK could emerge as a sympathetic, embattled new force, while others see the DMK being forced into a defensive posture over its handling of the tragedy. However, viewed against the backdrop of the concerns raised by legal experts – the premature CBI handover, the exclusion of Tamil officers, and the dubious inclusion of petitioners – the real winner may be the BJP itself.It is a well-known fact that for years, the BJP has struggled to establish a foothold in Tamil Nadu’s Dravidian political ecosystem. Its Hindutva message has failed to resonate deeply here, and its electoral presence has remained very marginal. Yet none can deny the party has grown adept at exercising indirect influence through alliances, inducements, and the strategic deployment of central investigative agencies such as the CBI and the Enforcement Directorate (ED).Across India, a pattern has emerged: probes that accelerate or stall based on political expediency. Tamil Nadu has seen this playbook before: the Gutkha scam involving former AIADMK minister Vijay Baskar remains unresolved, the seizure of a multi-crore container shipment has gone silent, and the murder of Ramajeyam lingers without closure. Meanwhile, figures like T.T.V. Dhinakaran and Anbumani Ramadoss, both under the scrutiny of the CBI or ED, have found themselves closer to the BJP. Unfortunately, these precedents make it hard to view the Karur probe as an exception.Interestingly, some BJP leaders have not even attempted to mask their intentions. Former Tamil Nadu BJP President Tamilisai Soundararajan’s comment, made soon after the tragedy, that Vijay “should join the NDA to be safe” now sounds eerily prescient in light of how events have unfolded.Within this context, the CBI investigation begins to resemble less a neutral search for truth and more a tool for political realignment. In fact, it offers the BJP a double advantage: projecting itself as a guardian of accountability while tightening its grip on Tamil Nadu’s emerging players.For Vijay, however, this development presents an uncomfortable paradox. In his heart, he knows his political brand rests on being an independent, youthful alternative to both the DMK and the AIADMK. His speeches have often cast the BJP as a force hostile to Tamil pluralism. However, with a CBI probe initiated primarily through a BJP functionary’s petition, he now risks appearing to benefit, however unintentionally, from the very political machinery he has publicly opposed.His supporters, mostly young and urban, prize his independence and anti-establishment tone. Any hint of compromise with the BJP could corrode that credibility. At the same time, defying the BJP while being the subject of a CBI investigation is no easy task. The “CBI sword” has a way of altering political behaviour: intimidating, delaying, and neutralising opponents with bureaucratic precision.The ruling party DMK, meanwhile, faces a nuanced challenge. While the CBI probe implicitly questions the state government’s competence, it also offers the DMK an opportunity to revive an emotionally charged theme: defending Tamil Nadu’s autonomy against central interference. Historically, whenever Delhi has appeared to overreach, it has reinforced Dravidian pride rather than weakened it. That is why the significance of the Karur case may lie less in its legal outcome and more in what it reveals about the growing normalisation of institutional manipulation in Indian politics.Of course, we are aware that the independence of investigative agencies, such as the CBI, forms the bedrock of a functioning democracy. But, sadly, when these agencies are viewed mainly as instruments of political strategy, the damage extends far beyond partisan gain and erodes public trust in the justice system itself.So what awaits Vijay and his party? In the months ahead, Vijay will have to navigate this treacherous terrain with care. Aligning with the BJP might bring short-term relief, but it is bound to erode his credibility. Resisting, on the other hand, risks prolonged pressure from possibly an unending probe. Either way, the BJP appears to have positioned itself to benefit from the influence it has gained, the narratives it has shaped, and the alliances it has softened.Finally, the Supreme Court’s order in the Karur tragedy may well be remembered not just for its legal implications but more importantly, for how it has subtly redrawn Tamil Nadu’s power map. Beneath the rhetoric of justice, a familiar pattern of political calculation is evident. Whether Vijay holds firm to his ideals or bends under realpolitik will reveal not just his character but whether Tamil Nadu’s fiercely independent political tradition can still stand firm against the widening reach of central power.P John J Kennedy, educator and political analyst based in Bengaluru.