Emergency haunts the Congress party even today, five decades after it was imposed in 1975. It had felled the colossus Indira Gandhi in the 1977 general elections. Congress was in ruins, demoralised and enervated, as the newly formed Janata Party was itching to dance on its political grave. One by-election dramatically changed the political scenario within a year, splashing the grim canvas with colours of hope. The sitting member of parliament from Azamgarh Ram Naresh Yadav became the chief minister of Janata Party government in 1978, necessitating a by-election in Uttar Pradesh where the Congress could not win even a single seat in the 1977 parliamentary election. Indira Gandhi reluctantly fielded her trusted colleague Mohsina Kidwai who won, giving a fresh lease of life to the Congress. That astonishing victory signalled that the people hadn’t written off the Congress after so severely punishing it for Emergency, motivating the dejected Indira Gandhi to contest the Chikmagalur by-election in Karnataka herself. She was back in parliament and the political boxing arena sooner than anybody had anticipated.By-elections aren’t always irrelevant. They have changed the course of history. Who had imagined V.P. Singh will uproot the Rajiv Gandhi government after leaving the Congress? His stunning victory as the joint-opposition candidate from Allahabad in 1988 by-election scripted that transformation in India’s politics. It was actually the V.P. Singh-led National Front government that created circumstances in which L.K. Advani launched the rath yatra for Ram temple, laying the ground for Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)’s hegemonic control of India’s polity.Also read: Can Modi and Shah Recalibrate After the Youth Uprising or Will They Push for More Centralised Power?The BJP can dismiss the significance of by-election results in Datia in Madhya Pradesh and Bankipur in Bihar at its own peril. Most by-elections are indeed insignificant but political circumstances sometimes transform them into historical milestones. The public verdict in both Datia and Bankipur cannot be insulated from the national political reality even as the third by-election in Manjalpur indicated lack of credible opposition in Gujarat. What’s most shocking, however, is the wild speculation on social media about the absence of Gyanesh Kumar magic in these elections. Many responses suggested that the level-playing field in elections will show how unpopular Narendra Modi-Amit Shah duopoly has become across the country. The BJP lost 53,472 votes in a small assembly constituency, Bankipur, within a span of less than eight months. While the candidates in the fray do influence some voters, loss of 53,472 votes in an assembly election shows a dramatic shift in voter’s thought process. It advertises disillusionment and anger. What changed in this small period?Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Union home minister Amit Shah and BJP national president Nitin Nabin during the NDA’s ‘Mangal Milan’ meeting, during the Monsoon session of parliament, in New Delhi on August 4, 2026. Photo: PTI/Arun Sharma.Was the unexpected phenomenon of the incumbent MLA Nitin Nabin becoming the BJP national president not appreciated by the voters? Are the people of Bihar also convinced about the unsuitability of Nabin for the post of party chief? Were the voters upset about the unceremonious ouster of Nitish Kumar and appointment of a controversial figure Samrat Choudhary as the chief minister? Was the same factor – of ignoring entrenched leaders for greenhorns – at play in Datia where the veteran Narottam Mishra was ill-treated by Modi-Shah?While it is futile to expect any honest answer to these questions from the current BJP leadership, it will be erroneous to presume that only local factors smashed the BJP’s hope in Bihar and Madhya Pradesh. What’s not open to dispute is that the climate of opinion has changed in the entire country over the past few months. While the sudden withdrawal from war with Pakistan and US President Donald Trump’s ceaseless claims of intervention dented the Union government’s image, Modi’s brazen alignment with Israel and India’s diminishing international stature manifested during the Iran war punctured the danka-baj-raha-hai (the echoing victory trumpet) balloon. Iran war brought economic consequences for the poor; with millions struggling to fill a gas cylinder. As if these were not bad enough, loot at Ram temple and the students’ protests completely delegitimised the government.Also read: It Is Difficult to Not Let Hope Seep InThe BJP stands on two pillars Modi and Shah. Even municipal elections are won using their magic, money and muscles. While Modi’s silence on suicide of 21 students who were depressed by paper-leaks and the mindless police repression against protesters showed him in bad light, Shah was exposed as a pathetic administrator after the reckless handling of boys and girls who assembled at Jantar Mantar. Modi and Shah are living in delusion if they think the brutalities against students and theft at Ram temple will not bruise their image. A good many, if not all, voters would have gone to the polling booth thinking about the irresponsible behaviour of the prime minister and the cruelty of the home minister. Students who ripped apart the hypocrisy and the deception of the government came from all parts of the country and their parents felt compelled to pay heed to their cries. Also read: Seven Reasons the Datia and Bankipur By-Election Results are a Nightmare for Modi and the BJPWhat was happening for the last 12 years must have made a deep impact on the people’s psyche. A large section of the population took it as fait accompli. But then came the irreverent youth, jolting the entire country out of the political inertia induced by religiosity and vilification of opposition parties. Society was forced to think and review its political stance. Why were little girls shouting this slogan: Chhappan inch ka chhota bandar/ bhag Narender bhag Narender (Fifty-six inch little monkey/Run Narendra Run Narendra?) This was obviously not a Congressman cursing Modi out of pique. This was an expression of dormant frustration at the lies governments tell, failures ministers conceal and falsehood the media spreads. Real issues can be brushed under the carpet, can’t be smothered to death. Farmers know what ails agriculture. Students know the rot in the education system. Even andhbhakts feel the disgust of blind loyalty. Truth had to erupt one day. It has erupted.By-elections have sent a message to Modi-Shah. Get real. If Rs 10,000 cash is not placed in a woman’s hand in the middle of the election, they will catch you by the collar. If communal passions aren’t whipped up to a crescendo, failed promises will crop up to deflate the propaganda. If genuine leaders are insulted and sidelined, greenhorns will be swept away by the storm of dissent. Make no mistake, Bankipur of 2026 is Azamgarh of 1978. When Datia will become Chikmagalur is not difficult to guess.Sanjay K. Jha is a political commentator.