Sarbhog (Assam): On December 16 last year, Pabindra Deka, the MLA from Patacharkuchi, joined the newly floated regional outfit Asom Jatiya Parishad (AJP) after resigning from the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP). Deka was a founding member of AGP, which is currently part of the ruling alliance in Assam. With assembly elections due in two months, such departures are otherwise quite natural.But why Deka’s exit from AGP has drawn much speculation is because for some time now, the BJP state president Ranjit Dass – an MLA from nearby Sarbhog constituency – has increasingly become involved with Patacharkuchi. And word has it that Dass would likely contest from this seat in the forthcoming elections. Local BJP activists we spoke to, while being hesitant to openly comment on the development, emphasised instead that they hoped Dass would contest from the seat since Deka was unpopular.But is this the actual reason for BJP staking claim over the Patacharkuchi seat, or is there an underlying reason? A closer look at the matter reveals that the latter is the case.Demographic compulsions in Lower Assam: The case of Sarbhog Geographically, Assam comprises the Brahmaputra and Barak valley with hill ranges in between. Lower Assam is the region extending across the western part of the Brahmaputra valley and includes districts from Kokrajhar and Dhubri to Nalbari on the north bank, and South Salmara to Kamrup on the south bank.Apart from a composite ethnic and tribal population, the region has a substantial Muslim presence, spread across all these districts. This makes them an important electoral constituency. Out of the state’s 126 seats, Muslim voters play an influential role in over 30 constituencies. A majority of these are in Lower Assam.The Sarbhog constituency that falls in the Barpeta district is not an exception to this demographic trend. There is a sizeable minority population along with a significant number of Caste Assamese as well as Hindu Bengali voters besides smaller ethnic and tribal groups.Also read: ‘Modi Magic Will Not Work This Time in Assam’: AJP’s Jagadish BhuyanA distinctive feature about this seat is the presence of a considerable voter base of the Left. Apart from Muslims, influenced partly by Bengal’s erstwhile political legacy, Bengali Hindus have been used to strongly support Left candidates here. The combination of both factors turned Sarbhog into a bastion of Left politics in Assam that was represented multiple times by Comrade Hemen Das and Comrade Uddhab Barman, important names in Assam’s politics.File photo of BJP workers in Guwahati, Assam. Photo: PTI.Competing in such a constituency, it is noteworthy that Ranjit Dass had managed to clinch the seat not only in 2016, when Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) was riding a strong wave but also in 2011, when it was a minor player in Assam. During our visit to Sarbhog, we were therefore quite intrigued to understand what led to Dass’ consecutive victories. Is it that Dass has an exceptionally strong performance record?Locals we met had only a modest estimate of his work. While public infrastructure in the town seems to have improved, people in interior areas of the constituency, like Nizdomoka and Dakhin Gonokguri, strongly complained that the MLA could not satisfactorily develop the constituency.What has rather helped Dass is the demographic composition of Sarbhog and the shift in voting behaviour. Over the last decade, the constituency’s Bengali Hindu voters have steadily moved towards and consolidated BJP. The process further intensified after the Congress party’s defeat in 2016 assembly elections and the polarising narrative built by the new government.Caste Assamese voters have also significantly shifted towards BJP even though the Left in Sarbhog still retains some influence among them. On the other hand, the formation of the All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) has divided Muslim votes into three groups, which earlier split primarily between the Left and Congress in this seat.Congress-AIUDF-Left alliance and its impact in Lower Assam During the 2016 assembly elections, one of the factors that contributed to BJP’s landslide victory was the division of Muslim votes between Congress and AIUDF in a number of seats. With both parties joining hands this time, there would be a consolidation of Muslim votes. As such, BJP is going to face strong competition in seats where minorities have a substantial presence, a majority of whom are in lower Assam. Along with this, the Left’s participation would further help the alliance mobilise additional support in certain pockets, with Sarbhog surely being one of them.Considering it was the party’s erstwhile stronghold, the Sarbhog seat would likely be given to the Communist Party of India (Marxist) or CPI (M). This would give the opposition a definite edge over BJP. Despite failing to win the last two elections, the CPI (M) has retained a strong popular base, having got 20,609 votes in 2011 and 29,082 votes in 2016.Also read: Why New Regional Parties in Assam Are Unlikely to Secure a Solid FootholdWhat stands out is that its support comes from a cross-section of voters. Along with this, the joint contest would also help to consolidate Muslim votes while checking efforts by BJP to communalise the elections as CPI (M)’s probable candidate, Manoranjan Talkudar, a veteran of the Left movement, belongs to the Caste Assamese community.In the last few elections, Congress and AIUDF fielded Muslim candidates thereby helping BJP to polarise the competition based upon the candidate’s identity. Along with this, we interestingly observed that Talukdar had a strong sympathy wave across the constituency because this would likely be his last election. People we met often exclaimed that despite his untiring efforts, luck did not favour Talukdar and they wished his career would conclude on a better note.The aggregation of such factors has seriously challenged Dass’ winnablility from Sarbhog. Not only him but reportedly even the BJP leadership has therefore become quite apprehensive about fielding the state president from the seat.As a result, Dass is planning to shift to Patacharkuchi, a seat where BJP’s popularity has surged in recent months. What comes out of the Congress-AIUDF-Left alliance still seems to be seen, but it surely seems to be succeeding in forcing the BJP state president to move out from his seat and explore more a winnable seat.Rajan Pandey is a freelance journalist, and is also associated with Hyderabad-based survey agency People’s Pulse. Abhinav P. Borbora teaches political science at the Assam Royal Global University in Guwahati.