The significance of Andhra Pradesh in the complex matrix of India’s parliamentary democracy can’t be understated.The state played a decisive role in ousting the incumbent Atal Bihari Vajpayee-led BJP government in 2004. The Congress, then led by its stalwart leader Y.S. Rajasekhara Reddy, won 29 out of the 42 Lok Sabha constituencies of the state, and helped the United Progressive Alliance edge past the BJP that was riding high on its raucous “India Shining” campaign.In 2009, Reddy steered his party to another remarkable victory by increasing the tally to 34, again piloting the Congress’s return to power at the Centre.Twenty years later, much of the state’s dynamics has changed. For one, Andhra Pradesh now has only 25 seats. The remaining 17 have gone to Telangana that was formed in 2014. The bifurcation of the state sounded the death knell of Congress hopes in Andhra Pradesh, even as it clawed back into power in Telangana in 2023 after almost a decade of struggle. Almost the entire Congress unit shifted to the YSR Congress formed by Rajasekhara Reddy’s son Jagan Mohan Reddy, who registered one of the biggest victories in the 2019 assembly elections against its principal rival Telugu Desam Party led by N. Chandrababu Naidu.Amidst all the political churn, the BJP, too, has remained unsuccessful in making inroads in the state. It has attempted to poach influential leaders from both the TDP and YSR Congress, pressed both the regional parties to toe its political line in the Parliament by keeping federal funds tightly under its control, and kept the Sword of Damocles hanging over both Jagan and Naidu’s heads through central investigation agencies. The carrot and stick approach adopted by the Narendra Modi-led BJP towards both the YSR Congress and TDP, however, has alienated the saffron party further in the state.Both regional parties have taken a special dislike towards the BJP for its alleged blackmailing tactics and are willing to work with the Centre only for convenience instead of any true ideological reasons. The tricky, multi-layered politics that is currently unfolding in Andhra Pradesh, set to witness another round of simultaneous assembly and Lok Sabha polls in 2024, is a case in point.The TDP scion Nara Lokesh in a recent interview to The Wire said that it has adopted an “equidistant policy” towards both the Congress and the BJP. Given that the TDP has historically been an anti-Congress platform and has been a part of the BJP-led NDA earlier, the new posturing is significant. Lokesh denied all reports that spoke about a possible TDP-BJP alliance in the near future. The party’s campaign is focussed on Jagan’s alleged “autocratic” regime that, according to Lokesh, has resulted in an all-round disenfranchisement of democratic institutions in the state – from Panchayats to Vidhan Sabha. “Over-centralisation” of governance during Jagan’s rule, Lokesh said, has led to corrupt and crony practices in the state. The party has also attacked Jagan for supporting many of the Centre’s controversial bills in the Parliament.TDP’s line of canvassing bears stark resemblance to the larger opposition’s campaign against the Modi government. Most TDP leaders will privately tell you that the Jagan government is no different from the Modi government in the way it functions. Yet, TDP has not taken an open stance against the Centre, something that it did when N. Chandrababu Naidu walked out of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in 2018. It has allied with the Pawan Kalyan-led Jana Sena, which is a part of the NDA in Telangana. Lokesh said that Jana Sena is a BJP ally only in Telangana but not in Andhra Pradesh, as he asserted his party’s “equidistant” policy from both the Congress and the BJP.Observers in the state believe that any hope of an alliance between the TDP and the BJP were dashed by Jagan when his government arrested Naidu in a corruption case, making it difficult for the saffron party to officially ally with the TDP. Given the BJP’s anti-corruption rhetoric, Jagan practically checkmated both its principal rival TDP and the BJP, while sending a strong message to the Centre to let both the regional parties fight it out on their own in the upcoming elections.Jagan, however, is beset with his own problems. In 2019, he consolidated a majority of minority and Dalit votes in his favour. He has pursued a strong secular political line in the last five years, while also delivering a slew of welfare measures to the poor. However, his support to the Union government’s controversial bills in Parliament may have also driven away a substantial section of his supporters, especially those who have been traditional Congress workers, from his party.Ahead of the 2024 elections, he is struggling to keep his house in order. His sister YS Sharmila, who was sidelined in the party, recently joined the Congress and is touted to play a prominent role in Andhra politics in the days to come. Her last-minute decision to withdraw from the recent electoral race played an important role in Congress’s victory in Telangana assembly elections. At the same time, many of his MLAs are facing strong anti-incumbency on the ground, forcing Jagan to announce many new faces as his party’s candidates. Moreover, his welfarist measures for the poor have alienated a large chunk of middle class voters.How much his own popularity among the poor counts in the upcoming assembly elections in the face of such hurdles remains to be seen, as a class divide among the voters is increasingly becoming more and more palpable. Naidu, on the other hand, has shown his ability to resuscitate after a string of failures.The Telugu parties remain malleable enough to move towards both UPA and NDA. Ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP, which tried hard to gain a foothold in Andhra Pradesh, seems to have resigned to the fact that it has no hope of any electoral gain in the coastal state. It will mostly rely on its alleged pressure tactics to sway one of the regional parties in the case of a complicated post-poll scenario. Regional concerns and state’s autonomy will dictate political decisions made by both the TDP and YSR Congress.In contrast, the Congress has laid the foundation stone for its revival in Andhra Pradesh by inducting Y.S. Sharmila. However, its way forward currently seems to be a long-winding and laborious one.This piece was first published on The India Cable – a premium newsletter from The Wire & Galileo Ideas – and has been updated and republished here. To subscribe to The India Cable, click here.