Hyderabad: That the Telugu Desam Party and the Jana Sena are leading was apparent as counting began. The parties took an early lead in nine seats and one seat, respectively, as the ruling YSR Congress Party struggled to take off.As the leads ballooned, figures embarrassing for the YSRCP emerged. Twenty three out of 25 ministers in Chief Minister Y.S. Jaganmohan Reddy’s cabinet, along with Speaker Tammineni Sitaram, trailed behind their TDP rivals.Illustration: Pariplab ChakrabortyNaidu will take oath of office on June 9 at Amaravati. Jagan has sought an appointment with Governor S. Abdul Nazeer to submit his resignation at 3 pm.That he would have to do so was obvious since early on counting day. But for close watchers a lot on the ground bellied the fact that Naidu could become chief minister for the fourth time and win his seventh assembly election.A look at the reasons for the debacle of YSRCP shows that the welfare schemes of the party on which it banked heavily did not work with voters. The tall claims of the government that a sum of over Rs 2.5 lakh crore was spent to get money to the poor through Direct Benefit Transfers (DBT) did not convince the public. Also, the volunteer system to take welfare to the doorsteps of people without having to go through government offices was largely ignored by voters. The system had also attracted huge controversy with many claiming that it was almost being set up as a parallel governance mechanism.The ‘three capital’ model proposed by the YSRCP government at Amaravati, Kurnool and Visakhapatnam, representing the three regions of the state, did not go down well with the people either. The state ended up without a defined capital city. By the time Jagan announced that he would run the government from Visakhapatnam in his second term, it was too late.The failure of the government to complete the Polavaram project and its firm resolve to implement the Andhra Pradesh Land Titling Act amidst serious concerns of public on land security can also be cited as reasons for YSRCP’s defeat.The TDP president Chandrababu Naidu notably tore up land revenue records at public rallies, symbolically rejecting government’s authority over private lands. In fact, all the opposition parties highlighted that the Act in rallies.EC figures on vote share in Andhra Pradesh at 3:00 PM.The TDP also promised ‘Super Six’ guarantees of Rs 4,000 pension per month, Rs 15,000 assistance to every school going child, three free cooking gas cylinders for every household per annum, unemployment allowance of Rs 3,000 per month, free bus ride to women and Rs 1,500 per month to all women from 18 to 59 years. These seemed to steal a march over YSRCP’s promises.Jagan in the YSRCP manifesto promised to continue all the welfare schemes of the past five years. He hiked social security pensions marginally from Rs 3,000 to 3,500 per month and assistance to school-going children from Rs 15,000 to 17,000.A political analyst, Pentapati Pulla Rao, told The Wire that TDP and allies also presented a unified picture. The public made it clear that freebies was not enough. Chandrababu Naidu promoted unity among allies by compromising on seats too. The TDP gave 21 assembly seats to Jana Sena and 10 to BJP.The TDP also conceded six parliament seats to BJP and two to Jana Sena.The YSRCP replaced 70 out of its 153 incumbent MLAs, possibly with an eye on what happened in the Telangana assembly elections. It was believed that the BRS lost the polls because of its reluctance to change its MLAs after they had become unpopular. On the other hand, the TDP retained all its 23 MLAs. The TDP also fielded runners-up on its behalf in 50 seats contested by the party in last assembly elections.The TDP swept the polls in Guntur, Krishna, Srikakulam and Vizianagaram. Together with its ally Jana Sena, the party also has good results in East and West Godavari districts where the Kapu community holds considerable sway. Pawan Kalyan who heads Jana Sena represents this community. The TDP also enjoyed the blessings of the Kamma community represented by Naidu. Women, too, are believed to have voted for the TDP in large numbers.