Jaipur: On September 14, prime minister Narendra Modi thanked the public of Rajasthan for “delivering a resounding victory (prachand jeet) to the BJP (Bharatiya Janata Party)” in the municipal elections, the results of which were declared earlier that day.In a post on X, PM Modi said that the mandate to the ruling BJP once again makes it clear that the public fully supports the good governance and development policies of the “double-engine” government.However, a closer look at the election results raises questions about Modi’s claim of a “resounding victory” for the BJP, which even though managed to win the most number of wards, falls short of its own performance in previous elections when the saffron party was in power in the state. A sharp proliferation of regional parties point to the same trend that was witnessed in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, defying lazy classifications of polls in Rajasthan being ‘bi-polar’ or simply winner takes it all. A big setback in Bharatpur, the incumbent chief minister’ home district despite much campaigning has further embarassed the ruling party.Difference of less than 1% in vote share of BJP and CongressThe difference between the vote shares of the BJP and Congress is a mere 0.94% While the BJP’s vote share stands at 35.19%, the Congress has a vote share of 34.25%.As per the results declared by the Rajasthan State Election Commission (SEC), the BJP has won 4,179 wards out of the 10,235 wards in 309 urban local bodies (ULB) for which the results have been declared.Results in nine wards have been held after glitches were reported in electronic voting machines (EVMs) in some of the booths. The main opposition Congress has come second by winning 3,613 wards. Independents have emerged victorious in 2,273 wards.Other opposition parties which have managed to win across the state include – the Hanuman Beniwal-led Rashtriya Loktantrik Party (RLP) (63 wards), Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) (42 wards), the Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPI (M)) (38 wards), the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) (19 wards) and the Bharat Adivasi Party (BAP) (8 wards).Vasundhara Raje govt fared better in 2014-2015 civic pollsIf one compares it with the vote share of the BJP in the 2014 and 2015 municipal general elections during the last time when the party was in power in Rajasthan – between 2013-2018 – the claim of a “resounding victory” rings hollow.The vote share of the BJP in the 2014 municipal general elections held for 46 ULBs, the BJP had won 931 of the 1,696 wards with a vote share of 41.34% while the Congress was much behind and won just 446 wards with a vote share of 30.35%.The difference of 10.99% in the vote shares of the BJP and Congress in 2014 is much higher than the paltry 0.94% in 2026, when the BJP is once again in power in Rajasthan.A year later, in the 2015 municipal elections held for 141 ULBs, the BJP had once again emerged victorious by winning 1,550 of the 3,641 wards while the Congress won in 1,204 wards.The BJP’s vote share was 37.58% while the Congress had a vote share of 34.18% – a difference of 3.4% – which is still more than the 0.94% difference between the two parties in 2026.The comparison of vote shares of the two BJP governments – the Vasundhara Raje regime between 2013 and 2013 and the incumbent chief minister Bhajan Lal Sharma-led government in the state which came to power in 2023 – shows that Raje’s government fared much better in the civic elections.Congress accuses BJP of using delimitation as tool to win more wards with less vote shareInterestingly, despite the difference of less than 1% in the vote share of the BJP and the Congress in the 2026 civic elections, the BJP has won 566 more wards than the Congress.What is more surprising is that in 2014, when the BJP’s vote share was 10.99% more than the Congress, it had won 485 more wards than the Congress, a number that is lesser than the 566 more wards it managed to win in 2026 despite only 0.94% more vote share over the Congress.Similarly in 2015, a vote share lead of 3.4% translated into the BJP winning 346 more wards than the Congress, still less than the 566 wards it bagged in 2026 with a vote share lead of just 0.94%.The Congress has accused the BJP of using delimitation as a tool to constitute wards in a way favourable to the saffron party.“Under the guise of delimitation, the BJP government orchestrated such a game that in some places a ward had a population of just 4,000, while in others it was 35,000. In one spot, 600 voters, and in the same city, a ward with 2,900 voters! The BJP hatched a conspiracy to split votes and seize power, yet the public held up a mirror to them,” Rajasthan Congress president Govind Singh Dotasra told reporters on September 14 after the election results were declared.CM campaigned in Jaipur with ‘Love Jihad’ pitch, but lost in home turf of BharatpurAfter the election results were declared, Rajasthan chief minister Bhajan Lal Sharma termed the victory of the BJP as “historic”.“The mandate received by the BJP in the Rajasthan municipal elections is the people’s seal of approval on the resolve for public service, development, and good governance. Our government is giving a new momentum to the all-round development of cities through urban development, better civic amenities, robust infrastructure, and transparent good governance. Heartfelt thanks and gratitude from the heart to the divine-like people of the state for this historic mandate!” said CM Sharma.In the run-up to the election, Sharma had enthusiastically campaigned for the party along with other senior BJP leaders of the state.“I want to tell you brothers that we have also given relief from the problem of love jihad by bringing the law on religious conversions,” CM Sharma had said during a massive roadshow in Jaipur in support of BJP candidates.In September last year, the Rajasthan assembly had passed the Rajasthan Prohibition of Unlawful Conversion of Religion Bill, 2025, which has the provision for life imprisonment as the maximum punishment for illegal religious conversion.However, the BJP suffered an upset in Bharatpur, which is chief minister Sharma’s home district.Out of the 235 wards in seven ULBs in Bharatpur, the BJP could win only 66 wards, Congress won 15 wards, while independents emerged victorious in a whopping 152 wards.Of the 65 wards of the Bharatpur municipal corporation, the BJP won 20 wards while independents won 36 wards, well past the majority mark needed to form the board.The BJP has also suffered an embarrassment in the elections for the Pali municipal corporation, where the Congress won 29 wards and the BJP trailed behind with 21 wards. Pali is the home district of Rajasthan BJP president Madan Rathore.Starting from 1998, Rajasthan has seen a tradition of voting out the incumbent government every five years.Even as the BJP has claimed a “resounding victory” in the municipal elections held just as it is about to complete three years in power in the state, the narrow difference in vote share and upsets in regional pockets serve as a reminder that the opposition is not far behind before the next assembly elections are held in 2028.