One swallow does not a summer make but a bouquet of events that culminated in the Voter Adhikar Yatra of the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) has offered probable clues to the state of preparedness of the principal contenders in the run-up to the Assembly elections in Bihar later this year.If the fortnight-long Yatra from August 17 to September 1 concluded in Patna with a massive roadshow last Monday, the ruling National Democratic Alliance, especially the BJP, is still struggling to mobilise its cadres and supporters on the same footing.What is making the BJP and its ally the Janata Dal (United) uncomfortable is that even Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s speeches after the Pahalgam carnage have not been generating as much enthusiasm among his ardent admirers as they used to in the past.While it is not so easy to ensure communal polarisation in Bihar to the scale often witnessed in the neighbouring Uttar Pradesh — where the social and political equations are somewhat different – the BJP’s demagogues appear to be finding it difficult to whip up nationalistic fervour among the rank and file of the party. The party machine is striving hard to pump up the fighting spirit among its trusted base but the foot soldiers are feeling demotivated by a series of developments starting with the abrupt acceptance of ceasefire with Pakistan on May 10, which was announced by President Donald Trump to the world. In the four-day conflict, the BJP had initially seen an opportunity to consolidate its political ground in Bihar, where the NDA is virtually going to the polls without a chief minister face.Tariff, sanctions and ChinaThen came the imposition of the tariff and sanctions against India from the “friend” in Washington, for whose victory the BJP workers across the planet had prayed so fervently. The repeated claims by Trump that he had played a crucial role in bringing about peace between India and Pakistan are further deflating the Sangh Parivar ranks.As if that was not enough, the Narendra Modi government almost took a U-turn in its stand towards China, a country that was seen as the principal ally of Pakistan during Operation Sindoor. The head-spinning changes have confused, if not disillusioned, the saffron street-fighters.The BJP may be hoping that most of the common citizens – the real victims of Trump’s actions – are hardly aware of what is happening between India and the US on the trade front and for them, only freebies announced recently by the Nitish Kumar government matter.But there is a flip-side: the people are also aware that similar promises were made by Tejashwi Prasad Yadav sometime back. The general view appears to be that the recent offers by the government are too little and too late. In fact, many who landed government jobs in the past couple of years give more credit to Tejashwi than to Nitish as it was the former who – as deputy chief minister between August 10, 2022, and January 28, 2024 – took initiative in this direction.The RJD had during the 2020 Assembly election promised 10 lakh government jobs. But in the first 15 years – between 2005 and 2020 – the Nitish government had given only eight lakh jobs.Perceived misplaced utterances by the Prime Minister are also creating problems for the booth-level NDA workers. They were unable to counter the opposition’s question on why Modi, after cutting short his Saudi Arabia visit, rushed to address a public meeting at Jhanjharpur in Madhubani district on April 24 – that is within 48 hours of the Pahalgam massacre. He was roundly criticised for using the north Bihar town on the border of Nepal, rather than Pahalgam in Kashmir, to send a stern warning to Pakistan.Similarly, had Modi spoken out against “infiltrators” in the Seemanchal region of northeast Bihar, the party workers would have found it easier to politically exploit the claim in the coming election. But he said so in Gaya, located more than 500 km from the Bangladesh border.Thus, be it on the external theatre or on the domestic front, the BJP workers at the grassroots level are finding themselves short on political ammo.The YatraMuch has been written about the SIR (Special Intensive Revision). One factor that is worrying the BJP: it is those from the weakest sections of the society who have had to face enormous hardship and bureaucratic harassment during the revision of the voters’ list.The opposition alliance was quick to utilise the uncertainty and bewilderment in the NDA camp through its 1,300-km-long campaign that touched about two dozen of the 38 districts in the state.Through the Yatra, Rahul Gandhi appears to have managed to breathe new life into the moribund Congress. Tejashwi, too, got an opportunity to send a strong signal that he is the most acceptable chief minister face of the INDIA partnership. At the same time, Dipankar Bhattacharya, the general secretary of the CPI-ML (Liberation), made it amply clear that if the opposition alliance did extremely well in constituencies on either side of the Sone river in the 2020 Assembly as well as the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, it was also because of his party cadres. This region has been considered the Red bastion in Bihar since the 1980s.Sensing the change in tide, Mukesh Sahni, the leader of the Vikassheel Insaan Party, abandoned his flirtation with the NDA and joined the Yatra, which displayed unity. Regional satraps and chief ministers of opposition-ruled states too joined the campaign at different points of time. M.K. Stalin, the Tamil Nadu chief minister and DMK leader, and Shiv Sena and Nationalist Congress Party stalwarts came all the way to take part in the Yatra even though they have nothing at stake in Bihar.In contrast, the picture is not clear in the ruling combination. Union minister and Lok Janshakti Party leader Chirag Paswan is still posing a problem for Nitish and demanding his own pound of flesh. He has repeatedly been criticising the state government on law and order. The LJP, though an NDA constituent, contested the 2020 Assembly election independently and fielded candidates in 135 seats, making matters difficult for the NDA.More than two months after the June 24 SIR announcement by the Election Commission, uneasiness is gripping the NDA camp as many insiders fear that the exercise may backfire. Hardly any NDA leader expected the opposition to seize the opportunity so dexterously. That many civil right groups, independent journalists and social activists would take up the issue so forcefully also appears to have stunned the ruling coalition.Soroor Ahmed is a Patna-based freelance journalist.