New Delhi: As many as 8,056 excess deaths can occur during a five-day intense heatwave in Uttar Pradesh, according to a study published on May 26, making it India’s most vulnerable state for heat-related fatalities. The study used publicly-available district level data on population and mortality (including data provided by the Civil Registration System for the year 2020), and combined these with a climate classification system to ascertain how heat led to excess deaths in specific climatic zones to reach this estimate.The research suggested that even a single day of extreme heat yields thousands of excess deaths, but a multi-day heatwave is deadlier. Uttar Pradesh’s estimate was more than double that of Bihar, which takes the second place on the list with approximately 3,615 excess deaths. This is followed by Madhya Pradesh with an approximate of 2,964 excess deaths, Rajasthan (approximately 2,664 excess deaths) and Gujarat (approximately 2,354 excess deaths). Together, these five states alone comprise 43% of India’s population. According to the study, the concentration of heat-related deaths reflects the combined effects of large population size, higher baseline mortality, and exposure to extreme heat conditions.“The results suggest that heatwave-related mortality is driven not only by climatic intensity but also by underlying demographic vulnerability,” it states.In an earlier report by The Wire, researchers studying heat and impacts noted that while the numbers in the study are much higher than government data, the estimates could still be conservative.The study found that across India a single-day heatwave can cause around 3,400 excess deaths every year, and that number can climb to around 30,000 during a prolonged heatwave, (five days).Most vulnerable heat zonesThe study also showed that the heatwave impact varied across states, which shows that it is driven not only by climatic intensity but also by underlying demographic vulnerability.Uttar Pradesh had the highest number of cities/districts that could witness high excess deaths due to heat. These included Prayagraj, Patna, Lucknow, Kanpur Nagar, Azamgarh, Agra, and Bareilly, each with excess deaths exceeding 180 during the five-day heatwave.Across the other states, the death-burden zones were fewer – though with a higher concentration – and included Ahmedabad (Gujarat) with approximately 307 excess deaths, Jaipur (Rajasthan) approximately 265 excess deaths, and Surat (Gujarat) approximately 261 excess deaths.Where things stand in 2026In May this year, Banda in Bundelkhand district of Uttar Pradesh, which frequently claims the spot for hottest place in India (and sometimes globally), spent more than a week at the top of the national ranking with temperatures soaring at 47-48°C. This was extraordinary even by local standards.Moreover, on May 22, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) had issued a red alert for 10 districts in the state, warning of “severe” to “very severe” heatwave conditions, and orange alert for 34 more districts.Even for the rest of India, the IMD warned that the intense ongoing heatwave was to continue, issuing alerts on May 25 and 26, with multiple red, orange and yellow heatwave warnings for most parts of the country.An earlier version of this article incorrectly presented estimated deaths in a heatwave scenario in Uttar Pradesh as actual deaths. This was updated at 7:38 PM. The error is regretted.