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Media

Backstory: Elections and the Fog of Misinformation

A fortnightly column from The Wire’s public editor.

I am a conscientious objector to the present cruelty being heaped upon our exit pollsters in the wake of the Maharashtra and Haryana verdicts. Apart from a couple of them, they were, after all, doing what they had been trained to do, expected to do, required to do: deliver handsome anticipatory victories to the ruling party. Their labours, let us not forget, had many positive spin-offs: lifting the mood at the country’s stock exchanges; ensuring a steady revenue stream for their propagators; and launching a thousand television debates. Even one along the lines presaged in this tweet sent out from the offices of Times Now: “@BJP4India is sweeping Maharashtra & Haryana in 2019 Maharashtra & Haryana Assembly Elections according to the EXIT POLL. But does the credit go to @Dev_Fadnavis Govt or @narendramodi ‘magic?“ (Note, there is no qualifying clause in the second line, the BJP sweeping the elections is assumed to be a given, as indeed the “magic” of that twin-headed deity, Devendra/Narendra.)

Exit poll prognostications are, in fact, part of the avalanche of misinformation that has come to characterise election journalism in India. Unsurprising this at a time when elections themselves have become exercises in ‘rupeeocracy’ (rupee-fuelled democracy), if I may borrow from a coinage attributed to media academic, Robert W. McChesney, “dollarocracy”, which is defined as “the rule of money rather than the rule of the people”. The gamble on electoral prospects – which is what exit polls essentially are – is addictive, drawing on the very human trait of wanting to know tomorrow’s news today, and no editor can pass up the opportunity to carry such a story (The Wire, too, is no exception: ‘Exit Polls Forecast Big Win for BJP in Maharashtra, Haryana’, October 22).

Worryingly, though, the business model of these exercises remains opaque. Perhaps a rare instance of sunlight lighting up the dark innards of the exit poll industry came after the UK Brexit vote in 2016.  A Bloomberg Business Week investigation that came out later, ‘The Brexit Short: How Hedge Funds Used Private Polls to Make Millions’, revealed the link between pollsters and bookmakers who were gambling on the possibility of Britain voting to leave the European Union. Many, including then leader of the UKIP party, Nigel Farage, cashed big on it.

In India, we’ve never been provided with similar insights into the hidden machinery of exit polls – except possibly that one glimpse when the only poll (conducted by Axis), which had projected that the BJP would not win the Bihar election in 2015, was pulled by a channel (partially owned by the Ambanis) that was supposed to run with it. Axis is back in the news (this time on India Today) for performing a similar feat – counter-intuitively predicting that the BJP was by no means “sweeping” Maharashtra and Haryana, as the turbo-charged mainstream narrative maintained. It was proved right again.

The two elections may not have changed the electoral map of India, BJP remains in power in the two states that have just voted. Yet they are being recognised as a watermark. The Wire’s reportage and commentary could capture some of this. For the first time since the Lok Sabha campaigns and verdict earlier this year, there is indication that the overt religio-nationalist rhetoric of the Modi-Shah duo seems to have hit a small but significant air pocket.

Could it be that “New India’s tricks of coercion and intimidation are no longer enthralling the masses”, as a commentator in The Wire seems to suggest ( ‘With the Pause of the BJP Juggernaut, a Lesson in Keeping Arrogance in Check’, October 25)? Early days perhaps to come to any definite conclusion, but clearly the V.D. Savarkar shock therapy that the BJP applied on its indifferent election crowds in Maharashtra did not work, despite mainstream media rushing to fan the theme. Between August 31 and October 17, Times Now had three major prime time slots devoted to Savarkar, sometimes with the same discussants made to repeat themselves ad nauseam. Faced with collapsing banks and flooded fields, a shiny bauble for a controversial figure was the last thing on people’s minds.

Entering the pores of popular distress was rarely attempted by the mainstream media despite the enormous resources at their command. Where were the voices of ordinary people that made it past the layers of editorial inertia in the large studios and newsrooms? Few media reports I came across in this election period linked the micro-reality to the macro-reality quite as well as did ‘Ground Report: Why Is Haryana Not Supporting the BJP in Full Strength?‘ (October 23). The piece carried an interesting exposition of plywood, one of Haryana’s flourishing industries, now in a three-year slump. This slump has been caused by the decline of the real estate sector and means that the farmers who grow the trees for the plywood industry are staring at mounting losses. The only thing that was growing was joblessness amidst the persistent consequences of demonetisation and a badly executed GST.

That the Manohar Lal Khattar government was an incompetent, ‘suit-boot sarkar’ (in Rahul Gandhi’s famous words) emerges quite clearly from this report, yet the BJP was willing to throw cash around and fly assorted “independents” (including the repugnant Gopal Kanda) to Delhi in order to give Khattar a second term. Finally, it had to settle for the newly minted Jannayak Janata Party. Both in Maharashtra and Haryana, the party has been forced into wearing shoes a tad too tight. As time passes, they are likely to pinch badly (‘In Haryana, the Electorate’s Silent Anger Put a Dent in the BJP’s Performance’; ‘Maharashtra: Shiv Sena Keen to Assert Dominance as BJP Licks Wounds’, October 25).

Interesting, the take one writer had on the verdict. The piece, ‘When People Take Back the Mandate’ (October 25), argues that the voter this time was keen to send out a message, “We are not dead”. This may be somewhat premature to suggest. The message from the voters of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, around the same time last year, was also similar, yet we still had the 2019 general election verdict. In any case, what I am really waiting for is for the mainstream media to send out the message, “We are not dead.”

Home minister Amit Shah, BJP working president J.P. Nadda, Haryana chief minister M.L. Khattar, Anurag Thakur and JJP leader Dushyant Chautala at a press conference. Photo: PTI Photo/Kamal Singh

Front pages that fight back

October 21 was black letter day for Australia most influential newspapers – including Northern Star, The Australian, The Daily Telegraph, The Sydney Morning Herald, Australian Financial Review and The Age. Their front page bore black slashes across the text and flagged just one principle: media freedom is non-negotiable. Each front page carried the lines: “When government keeps the truth from you, what are they covering up?” This action, that recalls historic protests by the media over the years and across continents, signalled a rare unity of intent between traditional rivals to stem the attempt of the Scott Morrison government to intimidate and target individual journalists as well as criminalise investigative journalism. It was also a call to protect people’s right to be informed and received instant attention from every corner of the world.

This protest could not have come at a more apt moment for us in India, even as the government is steadily at work dismantling the right to information regime in the country.  Today the information law, gained after so much struggle, is facing an existential crisis (‘Centre Assured Information Commissioners Won’t be Downgraded, DoPT ‘Draft’ Suggests Otherwise‘, October 24). Governments, not just at the Centre but in states like Andhra, are getting intolerant and repressive. The Andhra CM has arrested or threatened to send to jail mediapersons responsible for critical stories; while the Tripura chief minister has just arrested a medical superintendent for a Facebook post against him. Unless media houses and citizens come together to resist this trend, whenever and wherever it manifests itself, we may reach a point of no return.

Birthday Index

It’s a truth universally acknowledged that the more important a person becomes, the more important becomes the marking of the day of his or her birth. Going by the Birthday Index, Amit Shah is rising in the country’s political firmament at a rate that would put Chandrayaan 2 in the shade. Five years ago, nobody would have even suspected that Amit Shah had a birthday. This year, as the Union home minister turned 55 on October 22, we were forcibly reminded of the event through a barrage of interviews, posts, features on his life in pictures, and tweets with their own hashtag: #HBDayAmitShah. There was this sweet one from someone called Priti Gandhi (no relation of the Gandhis, I presume): “Your sharp personality, exceptional clarity of thought, irrepressible energy & single-minded pursuit to serve the nation is an inspiration for us. Happy birthday @AmitShah ji. Prayers for your long life, good health & continued success! #HBDayAmitShah

A good alternative to this genuflection to power would be to celebrate – wholeheartedly celebrate – the birthdays of our human rights defenders now incarcerated or under threat of incarceration. First on this list is human rights lawyer Sudha Bardhwaj, who was arrested in August 2018, and will have to spend another birthday in prison (November 1), having been refused bail by the Bombay high court.

Sudha Bharadwaj

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A Senior Secondary National Institute of Open Schooling (NIOS) student from Thane district, Maharashtra, wrote in to ask if The Wire can conduct an investigative report to shed some light on the issues and problems of NIOS students in Mumbai and Thane.

“National Institute of Open Schooling, is a legitimate, autonomous institution which is under the Union Ministry of Human Resources and Development. Its website says: ‘The NIOS is a National Board for Secondary and Senior Secondary Examinations similar to the Central Board of Secondary Education (CBSE) and the Council for the Indian School Certificate Examinations (CISCE).’ But that is not the case when it comes to the ground reality. There have been several media reports that thousands and lakhs of NIOS students face a lot of difficulty when it comes to securing admissions or seats in degree colleges, even though it come under the ministry of human resource development.”

NIOS students are anxious and want more clarity from the government.

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Another mail came from Sunil Mukhi, Professor of Physics, IISER Pune, who states that while he enjoys reading The Wire and viewing its videos, he has “strong concern” about its editorial practices because, as a scientist, he detests “any kind of biased or distorted journalism regardless of which way it is biased.”

He found the recent interview of Nobel Laureate Abhijit Banerjee by Karan Thapar excellent and thought-provoking. However he has the following observations to make:

“(i) The video appears on your YouTube channel under the title ‘BJP’s Personal Criticism is Upsetting: Nobel laureate Abhijit Banerjee to Karan Thapar’. This is a shockingly narrow summary of a long interview that was mostly not about this issue at all. (ii) It is clearly visible that Karan Thapar repeatedly pressed Abhijit Banerjee, who was reluctant to get into the issue, to comment on these attacks by BJP leaders. The attacks themselves were disgraceful but why does The Wire even need to dignify them with a discussion, isn’t social media busy shouting about it anyway?

“The impact of your misleading headline and Mr Thapar’s pressure was to detract from an interview which was primarily on professional matters. It might actually have appealed to thoughtful people across political divides. Dr Banerjee is first and foremost a professional, and it would be better if an intellectual-leaning and progressive publication like The Wire would respect his primary focus instead of forcing his words to fit some narrative.” He ends with the line: “Please do reflect: I believe your publication is much better than this.”

I have only this to say to Professor Mukhi, media freedom if it has to be achieved should also include the autonomy of the editing desk of media organisations to frame content as it deems appropriate, and in keeping with the general editorial stance of the publication. The professor should extend that courtesy to The Wire, as he should to any publication that he favours.

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Finally, there was mail from a couple of undergrad students from NIT Srinagar: “We’d like to propose a podcast series on stories in Kashmir. Podcasts have an untapped potential in India and Kashmir is a place bereft with stories and we have team that have an expertise in producing audio pieces. Linked is one such piece. Hope you’ll give it a thought. Thank You.”

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