In 2013 it was “taper tantrums” when there was capital flight and currency devaluations experienced by emerging economies. In 2025-26 it is Trump tantrums, playing out with a similar adverse effect. India was at the receiving end in 2013. It is at the receiving end now, as the Economic Survey admits.In 2013, India was among the ‘fragile five’ economies besides Brazil, Indonesia, South Africa and Turkey which bore the brunt of taper tantrums which were seen as a collective market panic that occurred after the US Federal Reserve (under Ben Bernanke) suggested it would begin “tapering” its quantitative easing programme – meaning it would reduce the amount of money it was pumping into the economy.As the US interest rates rose, global investors pulled their money out of emerging markets like India to seek safer, higher returns in the US.The Trump tantrums began in 2025 with a trade/tariff war declared on the rest of the world and continues in 2026 causing huge disruptions in trade and investment flows.Interestingly, India seems to have suffered the most in both 2013 and 2025-26. In 2013, Indian currency sharply depreciated 15% to 20% in a short period and there were substantial outflows from the stock market. The RBI sold dollars to defend the rupee and India’s forex reserves fell to less than $300 billion, covering about seven months’ imports.In 2025-26, the RBI has sold over $100 billion (if you combine both spot and forward interventions) to defend the rupee. India today has $700 billion reserves which can cover nine months’ imports as against $300 billion in end-2013, which could cover seven months’ imports.There are also differences in what happened in 2013 and 2025-26. 2013 was like a flash flood which hit the emerging markets after the the Federal Reserve decided to withdraw liquidity from the system. The crisis blew over in six to eight months. Things relatively normalised soon.But 2025-26 seems like a long haul as there is no knowing what Trump might do in the next six months. The only saving grace is that India’s macro fundamentals seem reasonably okay on the face of it, though the Economic Survey flags the risk of drying capital flows which may not be enough to cover even a meagre current account deficit of 1.5 to 2%.History tells us that a black swan event in financial markets can occur even with apparently reasonable macro fundamentals. The rupee has already touched 92 to a dollar and the Economic Survey admits it is punching way below its weight. It is the worst performing currency in Asia as most other major currencies have appreciated against the dollar and the rupee is down about 8% in the past one year.In this sense, India is the worst hit by Trump tantrums. It is the only country which has no trade deal yet with the US and is saddled with 50% tariff imposed by the US. Trump tariff has affected India in ways not anticipated. Until the trade deal is inked, foreign investments with sit on the sidelines. Even domestic private investment will hesitate until Indian companies understand fully the implications of the India-US trade deal on their businesses. Trump has created massive uncertainty for the Indian business environment.The Economic Survey expresses serious worry about the drying foreign investment inflows and has said this “warrants examination”. In effect, the Narendra Modi government admits it has not properly studied why foreign investments are drying up when macro fundamentals seem alright. Is there a growing trust issue between the global investors and the Modi government? The Chief Economic Advisor, Anant Nageswaran, told Shereen Bhan of CNBC that there could be some issues relating to the Indian taxation of international companies operating in India.But these issues have always been there in the past when FDI and FII flows were normal. Why are foreign capital flows drying up so badly as to slip into a negative balance of payment situation? This is a million dollar question. FII outflows in 2025 was $19 billion. January 2026 itself has seen $4 billion outflows. And FDI too has been negative in recent months. Net FDI was negative even in 2024-25.So this problem actually precedes Trump’s presidency. Trump tantrums have only aggravated it by creating huge uncertainties for businesses who may want to invest in India. Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his team appear deeply worried which they don’t display in public. The government has tried to project the India -EU FTA as an antidote to the negative sentiments created by Trump. But that is just optics, because the India-EU FTA will take a year to be implemented. Until then, uncertainty within continue.We now learn Trump is nominating a new Fed Chief Kevin Warsh whose bias is in favour of withdrawing monetary accommodation to strengthen the dollar. This might mean a fresh round of tapering of the Fed balance sheet of $7 to 8 trillion. This could cause another round of taper tantrum, like in 2013.2026 is poised to be a very rough ride for India as global headwinds might worsen. It could produce fresh shocks to emerging economies. The Economic Survey mentions this possibility but assigns a 10-15% probability of this happening.India can minimise its vulnerability by strengthening its domestic potential.The Economic Survey calls for an “all-of-society” approach to build a resilient economy. This may not be possible if a chief minister of the ruling party publicly advocates economic apartheid against the minorities. A divided society can never be socially or economically resilient. Modi and his mentors in the RSS must realise that unity in society is a necessary condition to deal with the ongoing global economic and social turmoil.