Dr N.K. Arora, the chairman of the COVID-19 Working Group of the National Technical Advisory Group on Immunisation (NTAGI) has said that it’s dangerous to talk about reaching endemicity when 30% of India’s population still remain susceptible to COVID-19. As he put it, 40-44 crore people are still vulnerable to infection. “At this time to say we are reaching endemicity could breed complacency.”In a 50-minute interview with Karan Thapar for The Wire, Arora also says that if there is a third wave, he does not expect it to be as ferocious and frightening as the second. However, he said it is by no means guaranteed that it will be limited to local areas and regions. It could still become nationwide.His views differ markedly from those of Soumya Swaminathan, chief scientist at the World Health Organisation; Gagandeep Kang, professor of virology and member of the COVID-19 Working Group of NTAGI, and Sujeet Kumar Singh, director of the National Centre for Disease Control (NCDC).Arora also answered questions about whether booster doses are needed for specific sections of the population. Speaking particularly about health workers, he seemed to disagree with the view that they are most at risk, arguing instead that their daily exposure to infection actually builds up their immunity levels more.In the same interview, Arora spoke about vaccination, claiming the supply line is assured for every adult to be vaccinated before the end of the year. He is hopeful that the actual rate of vaccination can meet the target.In the interview, Arora also confirmed that his COVID-19 Working Group is not considering either increasing or decreasing the time gap between two jabs of Covidshield and reports suggesting this is under review are incorrect. Finally, Arora claimed that the National Vaccination Tracker Platform which, in an interview to The Wire on May 28, he had guaranteed would be up and running in one or two weeks, finally began functioning five or six weeks ago. However, he added, it’s still not in the public domain.He also added that an article written in the Times of India on September 23 by a fellow member of the COVID-19 Working Group, professor Gagandeep Kang, lamenting the absence of data which the Tracking Platform should make available, was perhaps because she is not aware of the tracker’s availability or because she wanted special information at the individual level which it does not have.In the section of the interview about forecasts of endemicity, which he said could breed complacency, when Arora was asked by The Wire, “Is it dangerous to talk of endemicity?”, he replied, “I completely agree”. In the interview, he also said such talk was “a mistake”.In the interview, Arora said whilst he agrees that any third wave, if there is one, will not be as ferocious as the second – and he gave three reasons for this – he disagrees with the views earlier expressed by professors Swaminathan and Kang to The Wire that what we are likely to see local and regional ups and downs. Arora said just as the second wave began regionally in Maharashtra and then spread to Punjab and then eastwards, a third wave, if there is one, could develop the same way. He pointed out that the 30% of the country that is still susceptible exists in sizeable clusters not just in each state but also in each district. Therefore, a regional or local upsurge has the potential to spread to other regions and become nationwide.However, Arora confirmed a recent report by INSACOG that after the identification of the delta variant earlier this year, no other worrying variants have been identified. However, he added, this is not a guarantee they may not occur in the weeks and months ahead. But, he added, as of now none of the sub-lineages of the delta variant are worrying or of concern.Speaking about the nationwide COVID-19 picture, Arora said he expects that in two weeks’ time, the daily increase in cases will come down to around 20,000 and the R0 factor, which is presently 0.92, will come down further. Asked if this means the second wave is ending he began by saying “yes” but then added, “we cannot expect it to go down to zero” although we will reach “some kind of baseline”.Asked how he views Kerala, where for the last six days the daily increase in cases has been under 20,000 and the R number has fallen below 1, he said, “I’m not worried”. He pointed out that the state’s high positivity rate, which is stubbornly above 15%, is very possibly because of a change in the mixture of tests done in the state. RT-PCR tests have increased to 70% from an earlier 55%, whilst rapid antigen tests have come down from 45% to 30%. This point was also discussed in an interview given by Rijo John to The Wire on September 23.Speaking about India’s target of fully vaccinating every adult before the end of the year, Arora said “the supply line is fine”. He is absolutely confident we have enough doses of vaccination for this purpose and added that the health minister had assured him that exports would not create domestic shortages.On the question of whether India can reach the high rate of daily vaccination required to vaccinate every adult by the end of the year – nearly 10 million jabs every single day, including Sundays for the rest of the year – Arora was confident this could be done. Although later in the interview, he himself raised additional questions about meeting the required vaccination rate.First, Arora explained why there are such marked dips in the level of daily vaccination. He said Sunday is a holiday and so every week vaccination levels go down on Sunday. He then revealed there are two days of the week (Tuesday and another which he could not remember) when paediatric immunisation takes precedence over COVID-19. However, when asked whether the dip on these three days can be made up by the performance on the remaining four days of the week he said he was confident but then altered it to “I hope so”.However, later in the interview, when addressing concerns expressed by Anurag Behar, the CEO of the Azim Premji Foundation, about problems with rural vaccination, which are also reflected in a report by The Hindu that 28% of people in rural Odisha due for a second jab have not come forward, Arora revealed that in fact, the percentage is much higher than 28%. He said nationwide, it is closer to 50%. As he put it, “Half of the people who have had a first (jab) haven’t returned for the second.” When it was pointed out by The Wire that this is a second serious hurdle in vaccinating every adult fully by the end of the year, Arora simply said the system would do its best to reach out and this is something the health ministry is presently working upon.In this connection, Arora was also asked whether he was considering reducing the gap between two jabs of Covishield. If the second can only be given after 12-16 weeks, it means that people who get their first in November or December simply cannot be fully vaccinated before the year is over. However, Arora firmly said his COVID-19 Working Group, whilst constantly reviewing the matter, presently stands by 12-16 weeks and there is no intention to change it.When asked by The Wire, if the target of fully vaccinating every adult by the end of the year is missed, whether there is a percentage level of adult vaccination at which India can, with relative comfort, open up, as the UK has done, Arora seemed to suggest this could be when every adult has had a single dose. However, he said this is a matter that needs to be further considered and thought about. In other words, this is simply an idea he is voicing.The above is a paraphrased precis of Dr N.K. Arora’s interview with Karan Thapar for The Wire. Although recounted from memory it is not inaccurate. More importantly, this is a comprehensive interview that addresses, in a detailed manner, many critical issues such as endemicity; the possibility of a third wave and whether it will be local or regional; the present overall national picture; the precise situation in Kerala; vaccination, exports and booster shots; and the fear or possibility of worrying variants occurring even though there has been none for 4-5 months. Please see the full interview to understand and appreciate all the issues on which Arora has willingly, forthrightly and fairly comprehensively answered questions.