New Delhi: The next 40 days might be crucial for India as fears of a new COVID-19 wave grips the country, Union health ministry’s official sources said, according to news agency PTI.The sources quoted, however, did not cite any modelling study to buttress their claim nor the specific baseline for the time period of 40 days.“Previously, it has been noticed that a new wave of COVID-19 hits India around 30-35 days after it hits East Asia…. This has been a trend,” PTI quoted the officials as saying.Due to the upsurge in COVID-19 cases in China, the Union government has only recently sounded an alarm. However, the BF.7 sub-variant of Omicron, which has been linked to the surge in China, was first reported in India in June itself in Gujarat, and the last and third case of this sub-variant was reported in November in India. No fresh data from India’s genome sequencing database indicates a fresh case of BF.7 in India.Also read: From Detection in Pre-Poll Gujarat to Current COVID Advisory, Modi Govt’s Puzzling Response to BF.7There is no clarity from sources quoted by the PTI as to why BF. 7 – one of more than 500 sub-variants of Omicron is being potentially linked to fresh troubles for India – when India has already had experiences with several other forms of Omicron, including BA.2.75 and XBB.Virologists like CMC Vellore’s Gagandeep Kang and Ashoka University’s Anurag Agarwal have said that they don’t expect a fresh wave in the country given India’s hybrid immunity gained due to high rates of primary vaccination and natural infection.There has been unanimity among experts that – as officials in the health ministry also say – that the situation in China is much different from India because of not-so-high vaccination rates in China and low exposure of population there to the virus because of the country’s ‘Zero Covid’ policy.PTI also quoted sources saying that though the ministry expects the cases to rise, it does not expect an increase in hospitalisation numbers or deaths. No study has been cited to this effect also.Nonetheless, the Union health ministry has ruled out making masks mandatory in any eventuality.It may be mentioned here that India has been reporting 150-200 new COVID-19 cases in the last 20 days and there are no indications of any consistent increase. According to the Union health ministry update, 188 new cases were recorded on December 27. The positivity rate stands at less than 1% for several months now. For December 24, it was 0.14%.The positivity rate indicates the number of samples testing positive out of a total of 100 samples tested. If the positivity rate goes above 5%, then it becomes a matter of concern, according to WHO. The positivity rate is considered to be a better indicator of understanding the trajectory of cases as compared to ‘new cases’ being reported every day as it avoids testing bias. An increase in the number of tests being conducted may lead to a spike in new numbers being reported.PTI reported 39 international passengers were found positive for COVID-19 out of the 6,000 tested on arrival in the last two days. The Union government recently renewed a push for screening and testing passengers at airports. Of all passengers arriving from abroad, 2% are being randomly tested from December 22.Union health minister Mansukh Mandaviya is expected to visit Delhi airport tomorrow, December 29, to take stock of testing and screeningThe PTI sources said filling up of ‘air suvidha’ forms and 72-hour prior RT-PCR testing may be made mandatory from next week for international passengers coming from China, Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong, Bangkok and Singapore.