New Delhi: On Wednesday, as the Lok Sabha debated the Women’s Reservation Bill, or the Nari Shakti Vandan Adhiniyam before it was passed later in the evening, Congress spokesperson Gurdeep Singh Sappal drew attention to the possibility that the reservation may not be implemented until the 2039 parliamentary elections. He quoted from BJP MP Nishikant Dubey’s speech in the lower house, in which he tied the Bill’s implementation to Articles 81(3) and 82 of the constitution. Nishikant Dubey confirms our worst fears.Women Reservation to shift beyond 2034 Lok Sabha election. If LS elections happen as per normal schedule, women reservation will come in 2039.Nishikant Dubey links the delimitation for women reservation to Article 81(3) and 82.As per… pic.twitter.com/x3dDgwANNk— Gurdeep Singh Sappal (@gurdeepsappal) September 20, 2023What do these Articles mean? Both these Articles assume significance as the current Women’s Reservation Bill is tied to the possibility of a census in the near future, followed by a delimitation commission that will redraw the Lok Sabha seats. It may also increase the number of seats if the Union government decides to amend Article 81.Article 81 says that the number of seats will be restricted to 530 members chosen by direct election to the Lok Sabha, in addition to the 20 members chosen either through election or nomination from the Union Territories. Article 81 (3) says that these seats will be decided on the basis of the 1971 decadal census.Against the backdrop of the current Women’s Reservation Bill, Article 82 becomes more important. Article 82 refers to the provision that reallocation of seats (delimitation) could be done only after every decennial census to ensure fair representation of all regions.After India’s independence, the delimitation commission was constituted to reallocate Lok Sabha seats according to the first few rounds of census. However, the 42nd amendment, passed in 1976 during the Emergency, froze the delimitation of seats until the 2001 census. In 2001, the Atal Bihari Vajpayee government passed the 84th amendment that froze the number of constituencies till 2026, even as the census data was being collected. Thus, Article 82 virtually bars any delimitation of constituencies before the 2026 census. The redrawing of Lok Sabha seats can happen only after the census. The freeze was introduced again to ensure that some regions which have fared better in controlling their population did not get left behind in terms of parliamentary representation. For example, the southern states have performed well in restricting their birth rates but some north Indian states like Uttar Pradesh and Bihar have not. In terms of the distribution of Lok Sabha seats, which is done on the basis of population figures, the northern states could have a disproportionate advantage. The delimitation commission passed after the 2001 census redrew the Lok Sabha seats again ahead of the 2009 general elections but did not increase the number of Lok Sabha seats because of the freeze in place. The BJP MP Dubey said that Articles 81 and 82 prevented the Union government from implementing the women’s Reservation Bill in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, meaning that a census, followed by another demilimitation exercise, had to happen before the women’s quota could be introduced. The big question, however, is what is the likelihood of the quota being implemented by the 2029 elections? Most experts believe that it is highly unlikely that the quota could be introduced by 2029. Union home minister Amit Shah said during the Lok Sabha debate that the Union government could begin the census process immediately after the 2024 elections, and that will allow it to implement it by 2029. However, experts believe that this is easier said than done. The final report of the 2011 Census was published only in 2013, after a two-year waiting period. The 2021 census was postponed – initially because of the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, but the Union government has not given any definite timeline yet.If we take Shah’s word that the Union government will initiate the census in mid-2024, the final report is expected only by 2026. The delimitation commission will then begin its work to reapportion the Lok Sabha seats, and that should take at least another four to five years. This means that the introduction of women’s quota is unlikely even in the 2029 Lok Sabha elections. This is the best-case scenario if the Union government sticks to its promise of initiating the census immediately after getting elected. Opposition leaders and political analysts, however, are more pessimistic. Yogendra Yadav wrote on X, formerly Twitter: “Article 82 (amended in 2001) virtually bars delimitation prior to the first census figures post 2026. That can only be 2031. Most observers don’t remember that (the) Delimitation Commission takes 3 to 4 years (last one took 5 years) to give its final report. Besides, the coming delimitation can be very contentious, given the population ratio changes. So we are looking at a report around 2037 or so, that can only be implemented in 2039.”Media reports say Women's reservation would happen in 2029. This is misleading. Actually it may not happen till 2039.Most media reports miss the real significance of the delimitation clause.Article 82 (amended in 2001) virtually bars delimitation prior to the first census…— Yogendra Yadav (@_YogendraYadav) September 20, 2023TMC MP Mahua Moitra said, “What this government has brought here is not a Women’s Reservation Bill, it is a Women’s Reservation Rescheduling Bill. Its agenda is delay, its agenda is not reservation. The constant dithering on when there will be the next Census and when there will be delimitation will mean that the reservation is indefinitely delayed. This is not a historic Bill as it is being touted. It is a sham. The question of women’s reservation requires action, not the legislatively mandated procrastination.” “It means, in true BJP doublespeak style, we do not know if, and actually when, we will have 33 per cent women sitting in the Lok Sabha. The date of the next Census is entirely indeterminate. Therefore, the date of the delimitation is doubly indeterminate. So, women’s reservation is dependent upon two totally indeterminate dates. Can there be a greater jumla [empty promise]? Forget 2024, this may not even be possible in 2029,” Moitra said.A few MPs from the southern states, like DMK’s Kanimozhi, have also expressed fear that southern states may end up losing their number of seats after 2026 (when the freeze ends) because of their lower birth rates, while northern states, despite performing poorly on that front, may add to their Lok Sabha tally.Such a situation may complicate the electoral matrix and lead to a political storm, delaying the women’s quota even further. Moreover, the next delimitation exercise, in all likelihood, will be a complicated exercise as it will have to reapportion constituencies. The last such exercise took five years to complete, and it is likely that the next exercise, a more complex one, may take longer. In such a situation, one is truly looking at the 2039 Lok Sabha elections for the women’s quota – as envisaged by the current Bill – to be implemented. There was, however, another route for the Union government to implement the reservation immediately. It could have chosen to delink the women’s quota from the census and delimitation. A simpler Bill could have allowed all parties to ensure 33% reservation for women within the current architecture of the Lok Sabha. But since that has not happened, many opposition leaders are describing the Modi government’s Bill as yet another “election jumla”.