A politician thinks of the next election, a statesman thinks of the next generation.~ James Clarke, author and theologian.To reverse the state’s declining population growth trends and augment its working-age population, Andhra Pradesh chief minister N. Chandrababu Naidu recently announced cash incentives for families having more children – Rs 30,000 for the birth of a third child and Rs 40,000 for a fourth. Even before this, Andhra Pradesh had introduced a “Population Management Policy” in the state assembly on March 5, 2026, which is presently under consultation with stakeholders. The policy proposes Rs 25,000 on the birth of a second child. Apart from direct financial assistance, families with more than two children will receive several additional benefits: nutrition allowance of Rs 1,000 every month for five years for the third child, free education for the third child up to 18 years of age, mandatory two-month-long paternity leave and six months of maternity leave, among others. This is not an isolated instance. There are many who view fertility levels through the lens of religion. A few indicatorsThe quality of human resources is fundamental to economic growth discourse. Hence, to analyse the implications of this policy on Andhra Pradesh’s development trajectory, a look at some of the state’s prevailing parameters is instructive. On nutrition, the National Family Health Survey (2019-21) found that in Andhra Pradesh, 63.2% of children aged six to 59 months were anaemic, 31.2% of under-five children were stunted (low height for age) and 16.1% were wasted (low weight for height). Among adults aged 15-49 years, 58.8% of females and 16.2% of males were anaemic. In the 2023-24 survey, prevalence of anaemia was not collected, but Andhra Pradesh’s under-five stunting and wasting had only declined marginally, to 24.6% and 12.3% respectively. As per 2024 Annual Survey of Education Report, in government schools in rural Andhra Pradesh, only 53.0% of class eight children could read class 2 text, while just 45.2% could perform a three-digit-by-one-digit division. For class five children, these figures were 37.5% and 35.1%, respectively. Of the total six to 14 years rural population, 61.8% were enrolled in government schools in 2024.Micro-data from the 2024 Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) show that unemployment in Andhra Pradesh, even for graduates and above, stood at 21% overall and 31% for females. More than half of the rural workforce and nearly 40% of the urban workforce were engaged in self-employment. The precariousness of their economic condition is evident: the average daily earning of the bottom 40% segment of self-employed workers was just Rs 174 in rural and Rs 224 in urban areas, less than the then-prevalent MNREGA wage rate of Rs 245.65. Thus, the problem is not the unavailability of workforce, but the state’s inability to nurture and utilise the one it already has. In such a health-education-employment landscape, simply increasing the working-age population is not likely to serve any meaningful economic purpose.TFR and per capita incomeA strong relationship exists between households’ monthly per-capita consumption expenditure (MPCE) and household size. As the graph below illustrates, with each increase in household size, a fall is observed in MPCE, both nationally and in the state. Minor hiccups, for example, urban Andhra Pradesh’s household size of eight, are attributed to smaller sample sizes at that level of disaggregation. Photo: Household Consumption Expenditure Survey 2023-24.It is clear that larger families are more likely to be poorer. This raises a pertinent question: which segment of the population is most likely to avail these benefits?Even the most lower-middle class families are unlikely to opt for additional children on the basis of short-term financial incentive. It is far more probable that people at the lower end of the economic spectrum will find the immediate monetary benefits attractive, leaving future consequences to chance. The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) of a state is closely governed by its level of economic and social development. For instance, per capita incomes in Bihar, Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh – three of India’s most populous states – rank among the lowest nationally. These states also lag in key health indicators such as TFR, infant mortality rate (IMR), life expectancy, et cetera. Undoubtedly, Andhra Pradesh is better placed in comparison to these states, however, much remains to be done before it reaches the levels seen in Kerala, let alone those of advanced economies like South Korea or Japan, which may be advocating higher TFRs in context of their far smaller and ageing populations.Size and GrowthPopulation growth is no guarantee of economic growth. Uttar Pradesh and Bihar had TFRs of 2.2 and 2.7 respectively, in 2023-24. Yet, their per capita state gross products – Rs 1,08,097 and Rs 66,686 – were some of the lowest among all major states. Converted to USD at the rate of Rs 85.35, both figures fall below even Nepal’s per capita GDP of $1380. As of 2023-24, these were the only two major states with TFRs above the replacement level of 2.1. Andhra Pradesh, with a per capita income of Rs 2,66,995 and a TFR of 1.8 is better placed. But, it is doubtful that a larger working-age population will, by itself, lead to higher economic growth.India’s oft-touted demographic dividend has not been fully utilised, owing to a scarcity of well-paid non-agriculture employment and a skills mismatch in an increasingly technology-driven economy. Now, manufacturing too requires much less manpower and the long-term impact of artificial intelligence on employment is still unclear. ConclusionIt is indeed important to fruitfully increase the workforce and reduce unemployment and underemployment. Moreover, creation of a socio-economic environment that enables greater participation for females and those above 60 years in order to reduce dependency ratio is required. At present, reducing IMR and maternal mortality rate (MMR) and improving life expectancy would be far more effective than incentivising higher fertility. The long-term objective of the National Population Policy, 2000, was to achieve a stable population by 2045, at a level consistent with sustainable economic growth and social development. In line with this vision, Andhra Pradesh’s proposal to incentivise more children, if implemented, would be a regressive step. India’s dream of becoming a viksit (developed) nation, with a per capita annual income of Rs 18,000 or more and $30 trillion economy by 2047, may well turn out to be a distant pipe dream. Combined with falling exchange rate, rising protectionism, challenging geopolitics and higher provisions for defence expenditure, opting for a higher rate of population growth will indeed be a bad policy choice. Sanjay Kumar retired as Additional Director General of the Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation. N.K. Sharma retired as Director General of the Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation. Siraj Hussain is former Union Agriculture Secretary.