Controversy continues to rock the conduct of the November 2024 Maharashtra assembly elections, in which the Bharatiya Janata Party-led Mahayuti alliance’s victory was as decisive as its defeat in the state in the Lok Sabha elections just five months before that. Official data gathered over the last nine months from public sources and applications under the Right to Information (RTI) Act, 2005, and compiled from non-machine-readable documents raise fresh questions on the sanctity of the electoral rolls. At the heart of the storm is the net addition of 40.81 lakh electors in the state in the five months between the Lok Sabha and Vidhan Sabha elections of 2024.This unprecedented and demographic logic-defying surge was largely in regions ultimately swept by the ruling Mahayuti alliance. The spike, timed in narrow pre-poll windows and skewed toward select constituencies, cannot be explained by youth enrolments, sudden high in-migration, official population estimates or past trends, providing credence to opposition claims of official malpractice. A comparison with the 2019 elections highlights striking trends where electors in constituencies in decline between 2019 and 2024, suddenly grew at an astounding rate in five months. These findings are consistent, though not conclusive, with the concerns recently raised about the sanctity of electoral rolls, and echo ground reports that suspect bogus voting. At the same time, the onus of providing conclusive evidence is not on electors, but on the Election Commission of India (ECI) – which has so far offered little transparency or investigation. These anomalies thus raise troubling questions about electoral integrity and oversight in a crucial political battleground, demanding urgent scrutiny and accountability, all the more because the ECI delayed the Maharashtra assembly elections by a month vis-a-vis those in 2009, 2014 and 2019.By collating and comparing data from these previous elections, it is evident that the scale of addition of new electors in 2024 is unprecedented. This accretion is skewed towards regions and constituencies that were overwhelmingly won by the ruling Mahayuti alliance. Further, the rise in the number of electors was concentrated in a short window of time – in August 2024, and again in about four days between October 15 and 19. The Mahaytui alliance is led by the BJP and mainly comprises the breakaway Shiv Sena under Eknath Shinde and the breakaway Nationalist Congress Party under Ajit Pawar. The surge in electors is not driven by the number of new adults turning 18 and becoming eligible to vote (about 8.72 lakhs). Nor is there any evidence of a large-scale in-migration into the state in those five months. In fact, data from the 2019 Vidhan Sabha elections shows that many constituencies which registered a sharp increase in electors between June and October 2024, were barely showing any growth in the previous four and a half years. Some of them had actually lost electors between the 2019 Vidhan Sabha elections and the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.Further, projections from 2019 by the National Commission of Population too do not indicate a large-enough in-migration into the state that would explain 31 odd lakh new electors over the age of 20 in five months. At 9.7 crore, the total number of general electors (i.e. excluding service electors) for the Vidhan Sabha elections 2024 is potentially higher than the population of adults in Maharashtra, projected to be around 9.5-9.6 crore by the Congress party, and also by Pyara Lal Garg, independent expert associated with Vote for Democracy, based on trends mapped by the aforementioned report.The net addition of 40.81 lakh thus defies demographic trends and raises questions, if not suspicions.Rahul Gandhi, the Congress party and other Maha Vikas Aghadi allies have repeatedly alleged the presence of large-scale fraudulent voters on the rolls, both before and after the elections. The Maha Vikas Aghadi alliance comprises the Shiv Sena (UBT) under Uddhav Thackeray, the Congress, the NCP (SP) under Sharad Pawar, the left parties and the Peasants and Workers Party. A formal complaint by the alliance was lodged with the state Chief Electoral Officer (CEO) on October 19, 2024, a month before the assembly elections. There were other representations and complaints too raised before the elections in different constituencies, including to the police and to the Bombay high court. Even on the day of the elections, some candidates expressed alarm about dubious voters enrolled at an industrial scale, but so far the Election Commission has not launched any investigation, nor gone beyond a broad-brush dismissal.The regional skew and lopsided timing of the additions potentially indicates a coordinated effort at bogus voting and suppression of legitimate electors too, with partisan political motivations. Such an effort, if it occurs in fact, can make the difference between a loss and a narrow victory, or a narrow victory and a sweep. The disquiet is buttressed by the findings that the surge peaked during the pre-election mobilisation period and was concentrated in regions swept by the Mahayuti parties. Pending a deeper forensic analysis, which would require the ECI to stop stonewalling and be forthcoming with detailed information, the anomalies are significant enough to warrant public scrutiny and official investigation.The Wire emailed the office of the CEO, Maharashtra on September 8, 2025 seeking comments and clarifications on six points. The article will be updated as and when a response is received.Electors surge in the pre-mobilisation period for the Vidhan Sabha electionsThe total number of voters in the state added up to about 9.29 crore for the Lok Sabha elections 2024 in the state, excluding service electors. The electoral rolls for the state were finalised latest by April 2024, in advance of the fifth phase of the elections, the last one for Maharashtra. After the results were declared on June 4, the state’s CEO, on directions from the ECI, conducted a special summary revision with qualifying dates of July 1 and October 1. New electors could enrol until October 19, to vote in the Vidhan Sabha elections scheduled for November 20.Table 1: Total number of general electors by dateDate (2024)Number of electors (crore)Net Increase (lakh)Fraction of total surge of 40.81 lakh voters (%age)1 June9.296 August9.377.318%30 August9.541742%15 October9.649.924%19 October9.706.616%Source: Press releases and information published by the CEO Maharashtra.The largest net addition of new voters – a whopping 42% of the net votes added – happened between August 6 and 30, 2024. In those three weeks, about 20.78 lakh new voters were added to the rolls, while 3.79 lakh voters were deleted, resulting in a total addition of 17 lakh voters. Of the 20.78 lakh new voters added, only about 3.68 lakh new voters were between the ages of 18 and 19. In fact, the largest net addition of 7.55 lakh occurred in the age group of 20 to 29 years. Again, in the net increase of 9.9 lakh electors between August 30 and October 15, only about 2.26 lakh were first-time eligible voters having just turned 18.And then, nearly 6.6 lakh voters (net of deletions) or 16% of the total surge were added to the rolls after its publication on October 15 and before October 19, the last date to enrol. This is extremely unusual and ought to have raised red flags in the ECI. Since 2009, assembly elections for both Haryana and Maharashtra have coincided in October. In 2024, however, the ECI delayed elections in Maharashtra until November – as reasons, the then Chief Election Commissioner Rajiv Kumar offered security requirements for elections in Jammu and Kashmir and delays in updating elector rolls in Maharashtra amidst the monsoon. Consequently the window for enrolment of new electors remained open until October.In absolute numbers, this is the highest net addition of electors in Maharashtra between state and national elections over the last 30 years. More significantly, it is 253% higher than the corresponding figure from 2019. Table 2: Net increase in electors between Lok Sabha and Vidhan Sabha elections in MaharashtraYearNet increase (lakhs)202440.81201911.562014#25.822009#30.142004#29.531999#0.231995*#1.6Source: Figures published by the Election Commission of India.*The difference reported is the one between the Lok Sabha elections of 1996 and the Vidhan Sabha elections of 1995.#Includes service electors. The Election Commission has not separately provided the numbers of general and service electors for these years.On September 10, 2025, Union minister for petroleum and natural gas Hardeep Singh Puri took to X to discredit the Opposition’s allegations of dubious electors with the claim that “Their lie on new voter addition in Maharashtra was exposed where more voters were added in 2004 & 2009 when UPA won, than in 2024.” The above table makes it clear that the cabinet minister and BJP leader’s claim is false – ‘new voter additions’, i.e. elector additions, in 2024 were higher than those in 1999, 2004, 2009, 2014 and 2019.Where did so many new electors above the age of 20 come from in just five months? Why did they not enrol for the Lok Sabha elections in 2024? Since there are no reports of an uptick of in-migration into the state in those five months, and because such large-scale addition is unusual in the last 30 years, it is for the Election Commission to explain the increase – and what checks and verifications were triggered by its scale.The regional concentration and lopsided victory patternThe addition of voters was not uniform across assembly constituencies (ACs), but skewed towards constituencies in a few regions, which saw dramatic increase in electors.Based on information on additions and deletions disclosed by the CEO Maharashtra under the RTI Act, 2005, The Wire found that seven of the top 10 ACs with the highest percentage addition of new general electors are in Thane district, touted as Eknath Shinde’s turf. These seven are: Dombivali, Kalyan Rural, Meera Bhayandar, Kalyan West, Bhiwandi East, Ulhasnagar and Kalyan East. The remaining three are in Nashik (Malegaon Central), Pune (Bhosari) and Raigad (Panvel) districts.The Mahayuti alliance won eight of these 10 ACs, with the remaining two going to AIMIM (Malegaon Central) and Samajwadi Party (Bhiwandi East).Equally noteworthy are the 27 constituencies which enrolled more than 8% new electors, of which the Mahayuti combine won 23 (or 85%). Again, 11 of these 27 constituencies are concentrated in Thane district. The Mahayuti won nine of these 11 seats. The next highest concentrations are in Pune district (five ACs, of which Mahayuti won four) and Nagpur district (four ACs, all won by Mahayuti).Among these four is Nagpur South West, the constituency where chief minister Devendra Fadnavis won with a margin of 39,710 votes. Nagpur South West witnessed a surge of 38,161 new electors in six months, amounting to an increase of 10.1%. A significant chunk totalling 6,065 new electors or about 16% of the total addition was enrolled just in the month of October. An investigation by Newslaundry uncovered cases of bulk addition of electors, many of whom could not be verified by Booth Level Officers (BLOs). The Congress candidate who lost to Fadnavis, Prafulla Gudhade, has been demanding an investigation into the “unprecedented” addition to the rolls and even moved the Bombay high court, which dismissed his plea on the technicality that he was not personally present while filing it.When Rahul Gandhi posted the investigation by Newslaundry on X, Fadnavis dismissed the matter with the misleading claim that (1) over 25 ACs saw a surge of over 8%; and (2) that even the Congress had won in seats with such surges. While the first point is correct, official data contradicts the second. Contrary to Fadnavis’s claim, the Congress party did not win a single seat which saw a voter enrolment surge of over 8%; coincidentally, nor did the Shiv Sena (UBT).Table 3: Winners in the 27 constituencies that enrolled more than 8% new votersPartyCoalitionVictoriesBJPMahayuti16Shiv SenaMahayuti4NCPMahayuti2RYSPMahayuti1NCP (SP)Maha Vikas Aghadi2AIMIM–1Samajwadi Party–1As indicated above, the Mahayuti alliance won 23 (or 85%) of the 27 seats with over 8% newly added electors. In contrast, of the 25 ACs with less than 3% newly added electors, it won just 16 or 64%. Broadly, the proportion of Mahayuti victories is higher in constituencies where addition exceeded 4%.Table 4: Proportion of Mahayuti victories by percentage addition of new electorsPercentage addition of new electorsNumber of ACsWon by Mahayuti (percentage)0 – 3.9%11384 (74%)4% and above175151 (86%)Source: Data accessed under the RTI Act, 2005 from CEO Maharashtra. The winning MLAs from Chandgad and Junnar are not added to the Mahayuti count, as at the time of elections they were ‘rebel’ independent candidates fighting against Mahayuti and other candidates. After the results, they both supported the Mahayuti government.As per the guidelines of the Election Commission of India, addition of more than 4% new voters triggers enhanced scrutiny. As the letter from ECI to the CEOs of Maharashtra, Jharkhand, Haryana and the Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir dated 20 July 2024 noted:“Above the Supervisors, each Assistant Electoral Registration Officer should verify 1% of the BLO’s verification work, randomly selected from different parts under him. Assistant Electoral Registration Officer shall field check households with more than 10 electors; abnormal gender ratio, and the first 20 polling stations with highest number of additions or deletions, under his charge. Assistant Electoral Registration Officer should also separately field check 1% of the additions and deletions, giving focus on such part of electoral rolls where proposed addition of electors is 4% over previous electoral roll. Both, accepted as well as rejected cases, should also be checked in those cases.”Further, there is also “super-checking” of a sample of forms to add, delete and modify electors at higher rungs of the electoral bureaucracy going all the way up to the CEO’s office. Each level of checking also involves field verification.In Maharashtra, a total of 175 constituencies saw additions over the 4% threshold. The ECI must clarify whether the Electoral Registration Officers and their assistants concerned, as also officers at higher rungs, undertook the prescribed verifications and field checks, and publicly disclose the results thereof.The data on additions of new electors in the month of October 2024 reveals an even more striking pattern: Among the top 10 ACs listed above, except Malegaon Central, all others enrolled and deleted large numbers of electors on the eve of the elections. For instance, of the 41,030 new electors that enrolled in Dombivali after the Lok Sabha elections, 15,880 (or 39%) were added in October alone i.e. in 19 days. Bhiwandi East and Kalyan East enrolled 23% of their new electors in October. Looking at deletions, of the 9,191 electors that Bhosari lost after the Lok Sabha elections, 2,363 or 26% were deleted in this final month.In Panvel, 67,149 new electors were enrolled in five months, of which 9,213 (or 14%) were added just in the 19 days of October. 6,485 existing electors were deleted in five months, of which 460 (or 7%) were purged in October. The net surge of electors in Panvel was thus 60,664. An investigation by Frontline alleges additions of bogus and duplicate electors on the rolls of Panvel. Balaram Patil of the Peasants and Workers’ Party, who lost the elections from Panvel by a margin of 51,091 votes, complained about this to the Returning Officer in September 2024 itself. He too filed a writ petition before the Bombay high court, but to no avail.Booth level agents (BLAs) of political parties can motivate electors to get enrolled and assist in identifying electors to be struck off the rolls, but they are not allowed to file more than 10 applications in a day, and if a particular agent submits more than 30 applications during the entire period of summary revision, then electoral registration officers must personally cross-verify the applications.In light of the above, the Election Commission must disclose whether it investigated the last-minute spurts of enrolments and deletions in constituencies like Dombivali and Panvel, whether it sought confirmations of verifications from the concerned BLOs, whether the restrictions on bulk-submissions of applications by BLAs were adhered to, and the results of what scrutiny, super-checking and field verification was done by officers at higher rungs.Lopsided additions vis-a-vis those in 2019A comparison with the 2019 elections shows stranger anomalies. For one, the period between June and October 2024 presents a sharp reversal across several constituencies in the trend over the previous five years. For another, the net additions of new electors between the Lok Sabha and Vidhan Sabha elections of 2019 were neither so regionally skewed nor lopsided in terms of party victories. The analysis below compares net change among general electors i.e. additions net of deletions.In total, 63 constituencies lost electors in the four-and-a-half years between the Vidhan Sabha elections of 2019 and the Lok Sabha elections of 2024, but then gained a large chunk of new electors between June and October 2024. Of these, 54 were won by the Mahayuti alliance in November 2024.Table 5: Top 5 ACs by the discrepancy between general electors lost between 2019 – 24 and gained between Jun – Oct 2024ACElectors (2019 Assembly elections)Difference(Compound annual growth rate over 54 months)Electors (2024 general elections)Difference(Compound annual growth rate over 5 months)Electors (2024 Assembly elections)Winner (2024 Assembly elections)143 – Dombivali3,56,018-80,908(-5.6%)2,75,11038,012(+36.4%)3,13,122BJP142 – Kalyan East3,45,666-46,286(-3.1%)2,99,38029,793(+25.6%)3,29,173BJP138 – Kalyan West4,52,796-52,658(-2.7%)4,00,13840,459(+26%)4,40,597Shiv Sena52 – Nagpur South West3,84,094-7,686(-0.4%)3,76,40834,833(+23.7%)4,11,241BJP55 – Nagpur Central3,24,158-8,309(-0.6%)3,15,84925,320(+20.3%)3,41,169BJPSource: ECI dataOf the remaining 225 constituencies, where the number of electors grew overall between 2019 and 2024, 103 or nearly 46% enrolled new electors at a rate 10 times higher in five months than in the previous four-and-a-half years. These include Panvel. Of these, the Mahayuti won 77 seats.In contrast, between May and September 2019, the compound annualised growth rate of general electors was considerably smaller, not exceeding 16.7%. More importantly, ACs with the highest growth rate were more evenly spread across the state, and across winning political parties vis-a-vis 2024. The top 10 ACs in terms of percentage increase of general electors (net of deletions) fell in six districts of Thane, Palghar, Nashik, Pune, Aurangabad, and Nagpur. The BJP won five of these, while the Congress-(undivided) NCP led United Progressive Alliance won four and the AIMIM won one.Table 6: Top 5 ACs enrolling general electors between national and state elections 2019AC(District)Electors (2019 general elections)Difference(Compound annual growth rate over 5 months)Electors (2019 Assembly elections)Winner(2019 Assembly Elections)207 – Bhosari(Pune)4,13,68027,445(+16.7%)4,41,125BJP132 – Nalasopara(Palghar)4,87,56031,522(+16.2%)5,19,082Bahujan Vikas Aghadi149 – Mumbra Kalwa(Thane)3,37,02520,468(+15.2%)3,57,493NCP131 – Boisar(Palghar)2,97,91517,485(+14.7%)3,15,400Bahujan Vikas Aghadi58 – Kamthi(Nagpur)4,17,27722,598(+13.5%)4,39,875BJPIs it possible that rolls were tampered in select constituencies with the aim of recovering from the electoral debacle of the Lok Sabha elections 2024? Broad statistical analysis alone cannot conclusively answer that question, and numbers can be sliced and diced in different ways.Nevertheless, it is undeniable that an addition of 40.81 lakh general electors in five months defies demographic trends. With that as a starting point, this analysis offers some simple metrics of comparisons to point to lopsided patterns of additions in narrow windows of time. It is for the Election Commission to explain the basis of these additions, whether its officers field checked the additions in 175 constituencies as prescribed, why complaints filed before the elections went without any meaningful action on the ground and without an adequate response.Not investigating lopsided patterns, refusing to release data on additions in an easily accessible manner – a demand echoed by former Election Commissioner Ashok Lavasa too – and letting doubts and apprehensions simmer unaddressed will not only lead to an erosion of trust in the ECI, but also embolden political actors potentially looking to manipulate democratic functioning.Aniket Aga (@AgaAniket on X) is a researcher and teacher. As the election process comes under scrutiny, read The Wire’s coverage of the Bihar SIR, opposition’s allegations and more, here