New Delhi: While the Narendra Modi government has made a big show around tabling the women’s reservation Bill – with the prime minister even claiming that he may have been ordained by God to conduct this task – the government itself has said that there this no way the reservations mentioned in the Bill can become a reality before the 2029 general elections, at the earliest. Why? Because India hasn’t had a Census since 2011.The women’s reservation Bill is supposed to be implemented after the next delimitation exercise – and that exercise is predicated on updated Census numbers. It is believed that the next Census will only be conducted sometime after the 2024 general elections, even though it was scheduled for 2021.In a letter sent to all states and union territories in June, the office of the Registrar General of India (RGI), responsible for conducting the Census, extended the deadline for freezing administrative boundaries to January 1, 2024.“With general elections only a few months away, the exercise is not possible in 2023 as the entire government machinery will be busy preparing and holding elections across states and UTs. A census enumeration can only start a few months after administrative boundaries are established. Also, a house-listing enumeration will take place prior to the census to conduct the National Population Register (NPR) exercise,” a government official working with the RGI told Economic Times.The NPR, which the government likely has plans to integrate with the upcoming Census, has been a contentious issue. Critics believe that alongside the Citizenship (Amendment) Act (for which the Union government is yet to frame rules, despite passing the Act four years ago), the NPR may be used to deny Indian Muslims of citizenship.At first, the government claimed that the Census was delayed because of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, in the years since, all activities have resumed to full capacity and multiple state elections have been held. The Registrar General of India has not announced why it has not conducted the Census despite the pandemic no longer coming in the way of any administrative work.In the time since the last Census was conducted, India has overtaken China to become the most populous country in the world, according to UN projections. But since the country has not enumerated its own population, government data cannot confirm this.In February this year, when finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman announced the Budget, observers noticed that the allocation for census-related activities had been cut drastically from the allocation the year before. Budget 2022-23 had put aside Rs 3,676 crore for such activities, while Budget 2023-24 put aside Rs 1,564 crore. However, the revised estimate for 2022-23 was even lower than the allocation for 2023-24: Rs 552.65 crore.The delayed Census exercise – and the implications this has for India’s citizens – has come under scrutiny over the last few years. Renowned economic Pronab Sen, who has been named as head of the government panel set up to review statistical surveys and suggest improvements, says all data generated by the government – on jobs, unemployment, inflation, etc. – is effected by the lack of Census numbers. “The quality of any statistical survey depends on census data,” Sen told Reuters.The delay has also led to speculation about the government’s motivations. For instance, an article in Frontline in January noted:“The delay could be tactical. It is possible that the government wants to wriggle out of enumerating the population sizes of Other Backward Classes (OBCs) and wants to hold back until the general elections are over.Second, the findings might not confirm the hysteria about growth rates of certain religious groups, which has become a standard campaigning trope for leaders of the Bharatiya Janata Party in every election.Third, the data on fertility rates of religious groups might also present certain inconvenient truths. Four, the claims of achievements in human development and access to amenities might also be belied by census data. Whatever the reason, the government has offered no credible explanation for delaying Census 2021.”