The original law on women’s reservation, the Nari Shakti Vandan Adhiniyam, was passed unanimously by Parliament as a constitutional amendment back in 2023. It mandates 33% reservation for women in the Lok Sabha and state assemblies. However, its implementation was deferred pending a fresh census and a delimitation exercise.This year, in a controversial move, the government led by Narendra Modi sought to advance the delimitation process without conducting a new census, citing the need to expedite the implementation of the women’s reservation law.Although the process was ultimately halted by parliament, it is important to understand delimitation and how it can be brought up abruptly again by the regime and used in ways that subvert democracy. Delimitation risks distorting representation and undermining the political voice of marginalised communities. If not implemented with caution, and accompanied with a progressive consciousness, delimitation can sabotage democracy.Understanding delimitationDelimitation is the process of redrawing constituency boundaries and reallocating seats based on updated Census data. Articles 82 and 170 of the Constitution of India mandate that the allocation of seats in the Lok Sabha and state legislative assemblies, and their division into territorial constituencies, be readjusted after each census. This exercise is carried out by the Delimitation Commission, established by an Act of Parliament.Delimitation exercises were conducted after the 1951, 1961 and 1971 censuses. However, following 1971, the process was suspended to incentivise population control measures. The 42nd Amendment Act froze constituency allocation based on the 1971 census until 2000, a deadline later extended to 2026 by the 84th Amendment Act. As a result, the next readjustment is to be based on the first census conducted after 2026.The 2021 census was postponed due to the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent delays by the Union government. Meanwhile, population growth has varied significantly across states: northern states such as Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan have grown faster than southern states like Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh. This uneven growth underlies the current push to realign constituencies based on projected population figures for 2026.In the meantime, two pilot projects have taken place: in Jammu and Kashmir in 2022, after its special status under the constitution was abrogated, and in 2023 in Assam, which was kept out of the purview of delimitation in 2009.Delimitation also determines which constituencies are reserved for Scheduled Castes (SCs) and the Scheduled Tribes (STs). These previous exercises show that delimitation has often resulted in discrimination against minority communities. It has also failed to advance the cause of SC and ST communities. It has, in many cases, resulted in two marginalised communities being pitted against each other.How Muslim representation gets affectedOne of the most cited concerns in delimitation debates is gerrymandering or the drawing of electoral boundaries in ways that fragment concentrated communities and dilute their voting strength. This can reduce the likelihood of such groups influencing outcomes in any single constituency, making it harder for their representatives to get elected.In Jammu and Kashmir, the Jammu and Kashmir Reorganisation Act mandated fresh delimitation following the abrogation of the region’s special status. The total number of Assembly seats increased from 83 to 90. Notably, the Jammu region’s seat share rose from 37 to 43, strengthening its representation in the assembly. In contrast, the Muslim-majority Kashmir Valley saw its seat count increase by just one, to 47. But of the nine seats reserved for STs, six were allocated to the Valley and three to Jammu.Concerns have also been raised in Assam following the 2023 delimitation exercise. Constituencies such as Dhubri and Barpeta, both previously Muslim-majority with their share in the population exceeding 60%, had consistently elected Muslim MPs. Post-delimitation, three assembly segments of Barpeta – Chenga, Baghbar and Jania – were transferred to Dhubri, increasing its electorate by roughly one million (ten lakh).As a result, Dhubri remains heavily Muslim-majority, while Barpeta’s Muslim population share has fallen to around 35%. Naoboicha assembly seat, which earlier had a Muslim population of 41%, had always elected a Muslim representative. After the last delimitation, the Muslim areas were cut from the seat and redistributed among three other neighboring constituencies. Now, Muslim voters do not play a strong or decisive role on any of these seats. As a result, representatives of their choice cannot win these seats either, which has implications for whether Muslim leaders can reach the assembly as well.Gerrymandering is in the redrawing of constituency boundariesIn Assam and J&K, where delimitation has been completed, the redrawing of constituencies has been done to arrive at geographically bizarre results. But this was done in a way that has separated Hindu and Muslim electorates from each other. Take a look at the following map of two constituencies from Assam, the one in green is Hailakandi, while the one in yellow is Algapur-Katlicherra. Both are in the Karimganj Lok Sabha seat.Before the delimitation of 2023, three of the region’s seats – Algapur, Hailakandi and Katlicherra – were represented mostly by Muslim candidates from the Congress party or the AIUDF. Now, pockets where Hindus live have been carved out from Algapur and Katlicherra and merged with Hailakandi, making it a seat where Hindu voters will hold sway. Meanwhile, areas where mostly Muslims live, like Sahabmara and Rajyeswarpur, have been carved out of Hailakandi and added to the Algapur-Katlicherra assembly.Secondly, within Naugaon Lok Sabha are two assembly constituencies, Morigaon and Lahariyaghat. Traditionally, Muslim candidates fielded by the Congress party have won from Lahariyaghat. Morigaon was a Hindu-majority constituency. Now, two Muslim-majority areas, Amraguri and Batalimari Pathar, have been added to Lahariyaghat, while other areas have been cut out and added to Morigaon, creating separate electorates out of Hindu and Muslim voters (See map below).Pitting Muslims against SC/STsIn some instances, the Delimitation Commission has designated constituencies as reserved for SCs or STs even where these groups form a smaller share of the population than Muslims. Such decisions can have the effect of reducing Muslim representation in legislatures. For example, in Jharkhand, Ranchi has 15% Muslim and 30% tribal population, while Rajmahal has 45% Muslim and 20% tribal population. Between these two constituencies, Rajmahal and not Ranchi has been reserved as a tribal seat.Discrimination against SC/STsWhile some constituencies are reserved to enhance representation for SCs and STs, several Lok Sabha and state assembly seats with substantial SC and ST populations remain unreserved. This uneven allocation can limit the political representation of these communities.In areas where SC and ST populations are significant, the absence of reserved constituencies can hinder leadership and weaken the articulation of their demands. Conversely, in constituencies reserved despite smaller SC populations, candidates often depend on support from other communities to secure victories. This dynamic can enable dominant caste groups to shape electoral narratives, limiting the space for elections to be fought on a strong Dalit agenda. Lok Sabha constituencies like Habibpur (West Bengal) that has a 489.% SC population, Aurangabad in Bihar with a 29% SC population or Hasan in Karnataka with 20% SC populations are among many such seats that, despite more than 15% SC share in their population, remain unreserved.Endangering Southern states and federalismSince constituency sizes were frozen in 1976 using 1971 census data, India’s population has grown alongside significant internal demographic shifts. This has led to stark disparities in representation. For instance, each Member of Parliament in Bihar represents roughly 3.1 million (31 lakh) people, while in Kerala the figure is about 1.75 million (17.5 lakh).If delimitation is carried out after the next census based on a linear population criteria, southern states, which have been more effective in implementing family planning, could see their share of parliamentary seats decline relative to faster-growing northern states.If the number of seats in Lok Sabha is retained at 543 and reapportioned among states based on the projected population in 2026, the differences between some North Indian and southern states will be significant, as the table below shows.Further, if the strength of the Lok Sabha is expanded to 848, based on projected population figures for 2026 while maintaining proportional representation across states, the disparity between several northern and southern states would be as in the table below:Alternatives aheadOne of the most progressive models of delimitation in the world is that of the European Parliament, which also has a mix of countries with very high populations like Germany (84 million) and small ones like Malta (0.54 million). Germany has over 150 times the population and has 96 seats (maximum cap), Malta, with significantly less population, has 6 seats (minimum guarantee).In the European Parliament, currently, the FPS formula is used.In it, F is a section of the seats (say 10%) that is distributed equally. So, the size of the European Parliament is 720, and 10% of that is 72, which is distributed among its 27 members. (0.10 × 720 divided by 27 = 2.67)Next, P is proportionally, held according to population. So 50% of the seats, which is 360, is distributed according to population. So, total population of the European Union is 447,533,143 inhabitants, Ireland with 5,060,004, will receive seats of 0.50 × 720 × 5,060,004 divided by 447,533,143, which comes to 4.07.Lastly, S is for the remaining 40% seats, which are determined by square root of the population of a country. The denominator here will be the sum of the square root of the population, which is 91,209. So for Ireland this will come to be 0.40 × 720 × √5,060,004 divided by 91,209 = 7.10.So, in total, Ireland gets 14 seats, which is more than what Ireland received in the simple proportional distribution. In India, such a formula can be mandated to maintain an even proportion of states, converging their population, along with other axis.Delimitation can create serious political and federal tensions in IndiaIf based purely on population, delimitation will disproportionately increase representation for northern states while reducing the relative voice of southern states that have successfully controlled population growth. This risks undermining the federal balance and penalising better-performing regions. It can also intensify regional inequalities, fuel political resentment and shift policy priorities unevenly.Gerrymandering of constituencies will harm the interests of SC, ST and Muslim populations. Eventually, it will create resentment over resource allocation between states and that will invariably affect inter-state relations and processes like inter-state migration for livelihood.This is a research report published by SPECT Research Association. The researchers include Banojyotsna Lahiri, Imran Ansar, Nadeem Khan and Rizak Mohammad. It has been lightly edited.