New Delhi: Even as the country celebrated the festival of lights, the darkness in faraway Manipur turned a deeper shade of black. This Diwali, the Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) proscribed eight armed groups hailing from the north-eastern state. The MHA stated in its press note that they belong to the Meitei community, an unusual mention.Kham Khan Suan Hausing, academic and a prominent voice of the state’s minority Kuki community which has been locked in bitter ethnic conflict with the majority Meiteis since May, said this underlined an “interesting turnaround in Government of India’s stand on who pose(s) real threats to India’s national security.”He also asked, “Apparently, event management sits uneasily with ground realities. A wake-up call and time to re-impose AFSPA in ‘disturbed’ Meitei-dominated valley areas of Manipur?”A sharper question to the central government could have been this though: Has the Union home minister Amit Shah’s repeated claim to the media that ‘peace has come’ to the Northeast due to the Narendra Modi government, become a bottleneck for the MHA? Especially, as it is balking about considering the reintroduction of the controversial AFSPA (Armed Forces – Special Powers – Act) in Manipur where armed groups seemed to have played a considerable role in escalating the recent violence?‘Double engine’ power takes a hitAnalysts say, scenes of India’s security forces having to let go cadres of a banned outfit in the Northeast accused of attacks because of pressure from a ‘mob’ have been unprecedented and have greatly damaged the ‘double-engine’ government’s credibility, both in Delhi and Imphal.Never have we seen so many armed groups declared banned (for as many as a decade) anywhere in the Northeast without the Centre switching on the ‘disturbed area’ button in AFSPA to grant extra powers for the security forces to hunt them.In 2018, when these same outfits were banned by MHA for five years (this recent ban is a renewal of sorts that way), AFSPA was functional across Manipur except in the Imphal municipality area. Even when the ban on these outfits continued, the MHA, in 2022, made a rare move by removing the ‘disturbed area’ tag from 15 police stations spread across the Meitei-dominated valley areas.On March 26, barely a few weeks before this May 3 violence gripped Manipur, four more police stations of the valley districts were dropped from the ambit of AFSPA by the MHA. Manipur’s chief minister N. Biren Singh was heard telling local media in Imphal then, “This historic moment was achieved, following the era of peace and prosperity that came in the state with the arrival of Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led BJP government in Manipur.”The Buck Stops at the CentreAn even sharper question would then be – Has the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)’s claim that Modi, or more specifically, the national security adviser (NSA) Ajit Doval’s assessment of ‘peace has come’ in Manipur gone horribly wrong? Was that claim of the government of the day mere hogwash, a claim without any basis, then? Was it a miscalculation, misinterpretation of the ground reality?No Peace in Manipur to DateThese questions are applicable because, if ‘peace’ in that border state was ‘in existence’ only till this March end, as per the Centre’s assessment, how was it that only in the first week of May all hell broke loose, and a band of proscribed ‘Meitei’ armed groups got down to action in an area, given the green signal for removal of AFSPA? The common refrain in Imphal is, these outfits might have been instrumental in looting dozens of those AFSPA-free police stations for arms and ammunition. Pertinent as they may be, but the dilemma before the independent media is, whom should it pose these questions? Who is responsible for it? Imphal or New Delhi? Will there even be a reply?Though the MHA press note accused these outfits of “mobilising cadres for escalating their secessionist, subversive, terrorist and violent activities; propagate anti-national activities in collusion with forces inimical to sovereignty and integrity of India”, the NSA is so far conspicuously quiet on Manipur, let alone seen repeating his ‘biryani’ moment to symbolise ‘peace has come’ to Manipur.More Questions Need to be AskedNevertheless, questions must be asked.So here is another.Has the ruling BJP (it has the double engine variety in Manipur) decided to not bring back AFSPA in the valley areas of Manipur for now because it is a sensitive subject for the state’s majority community?The one-of-a-kind fast by Irom Sharmila was a non-violent rebellion against New Delhi for clamping down the draconian law largely on the Meitei community. The memories of rapes, killings and encounters by security forces are still fresh in the streets of Imphal. No one in the valley wants to return to those dark days. No affected family has got justice yet. All Manipuris want to see better days, not naked display of arms that make life so cheap which occurred recently. With so many dead and thousands turning homeless, many feel that the state clearly failed them.Still, that elections recur every five years is also a reality.So, is it then important to ask if the present decision of the Modi government to not reimpose AFSPA in the valley areas of Manipur in spite of MHA finding that secessionist armed groups have gained ground (and muscle) have to do more with voter sentiment?Analysis says that the Modi government has been careful about timing policy decisions and their announcement, keeping the BJP’s electoral prospects in mind.In 2022, BJP could win a clear majority in the Manipur assembly for the first time due to the overwhelming support to the party by the Meitei community.That Modi the campaigner went to Imphal to seek votes in 2022 but Modi the Prime Minister didn’t, or couldn’t, when their lives were turning upside down is a grouse most Meiteis nurse in the wake of the continuing post May 3 violence and disruption in the state. Only time will answer conclusively, whether it is then a palliative by an election-centric ruling party.Electoral gambits and Myanmar unrestNot just in Manipur, but across the Northeast, it is an ‘open secret’ that several political leaders of all shades covertly misuse insurgents who are engaged in peace talks with the central and state governments.These militants are overground because of the sustained ceasefire agreements with the government. Anyway, the past of several top political leaders from across the region are linked to banned armed outfits is no secret. Manipur chief minister N. Biren Singh, too, was once charged under the National Security Act (NSA) for allegedly supporting the People’s Liberation Army of Manipur (PLA), one of the groups banned by MHA.However, with things taking a sharp and surprising turn in neighbouring Myanmar, such election-time misuse of armed groups in Manipur cannot be taken lightly. The MHA renewing the ban on so many insurgent groups, even if they are not large in cadre strength, also gains more significance considering their bases are typically across the international border.Additionally, the joint offensive carried out by Myanmar’s pro-democracy forces along with local armed groups in Chin and Sagaing regions since this October-end has succeeded in snatching away from the Myanmar ruling Junta, strips of strategic areas along the Indian border. These land strips are not just adjacent to Mizoram but some are close to Manipur, Arunachal Pradesh and Nagaland, too. In the larger scope of developments in that country, a key trade route with China in the Shan state has also fallen into the hands of the ‘rebels’. These continuous ‘wins’ are coming at a time when Myanmar’s government-in-exile, a supporter of this offensive, is noting that India is engaging only with the Junta.The MHA in its wisdom has not lifted AFSPA from areas of Manipur that border Myanmar; even though in that stretch all the armed groups are under ceasefire and in peace talks with the Indian government, unlike the Meitei groups.Shifting BlamePost May 3 violence, both the state chief minister and the Union home minister had blamed ‘Myanmar’ (indicating drug lords and illegal immigrants from the country) for it. This, then makes Hausing’s comments cited above more relevant. The MHA’s decision to ban these Meitei groups seemingly operating deep inside Manipur came just weeks after ‘external forces’ were solely blamed for internal violence.Has the BJP government’s narrative on those responsible for Manipur violence then, again shifted significantly?