New Delhi: As parts of north India continue to witness heavy downpours setting off flash floods and landslides in some areas, regions including Himachal Pradesh and parts of north Punjab and Haryana will receive intense rain spells on July 10 but this will “decrease significantly thereafter”, the India Meteorological Department said on Monday. Parts of northeast and east India will also receive extremely heavy showers over the next three days, it said.The water level in the Yamuna crossed the warning mark of 204.5 metres in Delhi on July 10, per PTI. The danger mark is 205.33 meters.The Delhi government is on high alert and will begin evacuations along the bank of the river Yamuna as soon as it crosses 206 m of water level. Prime Minister Narendra Modi spoke to senior ministers and officials, and “took stock of the situation in the wake of excessive rainfall” in parts of India. “Local administrations, NDRF and SDRF teams are working to ensure the well-being of those affected,” he tweeted.States on alertOn July 9, the national capital recorded 15.3 cm of rain in 24 hours (till 8:30 am), the highest in a single day in July since 1982, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). The water level in the Yamuna crossed the warning mark of 204.5 meters in Delhi on July 10, according to a report by PTI. The danger mark is 205.33 meters. The water level is expected to rise to 205.5 meters between 10 am and 12 noon on Tuesday, July 11, the report said.The Delhi government is on high alert and will begin evacuations along the bank of the river Yamuna as soon as it crosses 206 m of water level, Delhi health minister Saurabh Bharadwaj said. Massive rise in #flood in #Yamuna d/s HKBDischarges from HKB, Haryana crossed 1 lakh cusec (1,11,060 cusec at 16:00 hour) & within next hour touching 2 lakh cusec (1,90,861 cusec at 17:00 hour).Low lying floodplain areas in Delhi to be submerged.SM video of HKB today. pic.twitter.com/e3TO1C7XDY— SANDRP (@Indian_Rivers) July 9, 2023The IMD tweeted on July 10 that heavy to very heavy rainfall, with extremely heavy showers occurred over East Rajasthan, while west Rajasthan witnessed heavy downpours. Mount Abu Tehsil in Sirohi district tabled 23 cm of rainfall. Himachal Pradesh is on red alert for today, July 10. Potential impacts, the IMD says, include localized flooding and landslides. Himachal Pradesh has not witnessed such “widespread heavy rains” in the past 50 years and the state has suffered a loss of about INR 3,000 crore in this monsoon season so far, PTI quoted chief minister Sukhvinder Singh Sukhu as saying on July 10. About 17 persons have died in rain-related incidents in the state in the past two days. Efforts are on to rescue 400 tourists and locals stranded at Chandertal and between Pagal and Teilgi nallah in Lahaul and Spiti, he added.The recent floods in Himachal Pradesh are reminiscent of the floods that Uttarakhand witnessed in 2013, with “similar synoptic conditions”, tweeted Madhavan Rajeevan, former Secretary of the Ministry of Earth Sciences, on July 9.Recent H.P floods remind us 2013 Uttarakhand floods with similar synoptic conditionsAn active monsoon with strong low level easterlies bringing plenty of moisture, supported by upper level divergence due to an E-ward moving troughThese are predictable@Indiametdept @moesgoi pic.twitter.com/dsCVYynx0q— Madhavan Rajeevan (@rajeevan61) July 9, 2023These recent heavy rains and flash floods remind us about one of the important impacts of climate change on the monsoon – that it rains for fewer hours, but when it rains, it rains very heavily – he added. “Our forewarning systems & [sic] mitigation should further improve. This can happen anywhere,” he tweeted.For July 10, the IMD has also sounded an orange alert for heavy rainfall (11 to 20 cm) in Punjab, north Haryana, Chandigarh and Rajasthan. Uttarakhand too is on orange alert as the IMD predicts similarly heavy to very heavy rainfall in the state from July 10-12. Localised flooding and landslides could be a concern here too, it has warned.Uttarakhand is already one of the states facing a flash flood risk on July 10, as per the IMD’s statement on July 9. It predicts a moderate flash flood risk in the watersheds of rivers in Himachal Pradesh, and adjoining areas of Jammu and Kashmir, Uttarakhand and western Uttar Pradesh on July 10. This is because soil in some of these areas could become fully saturated, per the IMD, due to surface runoff or inundation of low-lying areas. As of July 10, the IMD’s statement says that some watersheds in Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand will experience a moderate to high flash flood risk, while sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim face a moderate flash flood risk.Excessively wet July so farIt’s been a very wet July for many parts of India so far, in comparison to the rainfall deficit that June witnessed. India received 57% lower rainfall than average in the first week of June. Later in the month, cyclone Biparjoy hit India’s northern west coast. But while it brought excess rainfall to Gujarat and Rajasthan, it took away a lot of moisture that should have gone into the monsoon rains in south, central and east India, experts told The Wire. Biparjoy, therefore, ended up “stealing” the monsoon and bringing rainfall deficits and heat waves. Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Telangana and Maharashtra witnessed a rain deficit of more than 80% between June 1 and June 20. The cloudlessness in some of these areas also aggravated the heat waves, which resulted in the deaths of nearly 100 people in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh in mid June. South India received the lowest ever rainfall in June in the last 122 years, per the IMD. Now, in July so far, parts of India’s west coast and the western regions of peninsular India, as well as north and northwest India, have witnessed excess rainfall, per the IMD. The states of Kerala, Karnataka, Goa, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Haryana, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh and Jammu and Kashmir have received a “large excess” – more than 60% than is normal – during July. The departure is by more than 200% in Punjab, while it is around 150% more in Himachal Pradesh and Jammu and Kashmir.Extremely heavy rainfall warning for NE IndiaThe IMD’s statement dated July 10 states that the “intense rainfall spell” over Himachal Pradesh and the adjoining areas of north Punjab and Haryana are likely to continue on July 10 but “decrease significantly thereafter”. It also predicts extremely heavy rainfall over northeast India and adjoining East India over the next three days.PM Narendra Modi spoke to senior ministers and officials in the backdrop of excessive rainfall in parts of India, and took stock of the situation, as per his tweet. Local administrations, the National Disaster Response Force and State Disaster Response Force teams are working to ensure the well-being of affected people, he tweeted.PM @narendramodi spoke to senior Ministers and officials, and took stock of the situation in the wake of excessive rainfall in parts of India. Local administrations, NDRF and SDRF teams are working to ensure the well-being of those affected.— PMO India (@PMOIndia) July 10, 2023As per reports, 39 teams of the National Disaster Response Force have been deployed in four north Indian states (14 in Punjab, 12 in Himachal Pradesh, eight in Uttarakhand and five in Haryana) to tackle the heavy rains and floods.Monsoon patternsIMD director general Mrutyunjay Mohapatra told Hindustan Times that the heavy rainfall is due to an interaction between a western disturbance and the monsoon. A western disturbance is a cyclonic storm that develops in the Mediterranean region and moves from west to east, and is an important weather phenomenon for it brings winter rain to north India.According to Mahesh Palawat, Vice-President of Meteorology and Climate Change, Skymet Weather, the ongoing spell of extremely heavy rains is due to the alignment of three weather systems: the Western Disturbance over the Western Himalayas, a cyclonic circulation over the northwestern plains, and axis of the monsoon trough running across the Indo-Gangetic Plains. It’s nothing new: this ‘alignment’ is the usual pattern during the monsoon, said Palawat.However, global warming-led changes in monsoon patterns have made a difference, he said, in a press release.“There has been a constant rise in both land and sea temperatures, which has increased the capacity of the air to hold moisture for a longer time. Thus, the role of climate change in the increasing extreme weather events in India has been strengthening with each passing year,” he said.While extreme weather events have occurred earlier as well, 2023 has been a “unique year”, said Raghu Murtugudde, Earth System Scientist and Visiting Professor at IIT-Bombay. Global warming is making a significant contribution but there are some other factors at play as well, he said in a press release.“Firstly, El Nino has taken shape, which is amplifying global temperatures,” he said. “Secondly, wildfires have been in three times larger areas, releasing three times of carbon into the atmosphere, and increasing greenhouse gases. Thirdly, [the] North Atlantic Ocean is in a warmer phase. Fourth, the Arabian Sea has warmed unexceptionally since January, infusing more moisture over North-Northwest India. And lastly, the upper-level circulation pattern is also unusual, which forces local surface circulations, bringing rains like the one we are witnessing across north and central India,” he said.