New Delhi: As the southwest monsoon retreats from India, the extent of this year’s rainfall deficit is clear. The country recorded one of its weakest rainfalls in over a decade despite an early onset over the Andaman Sea on May 16, six days ahead of its scheduled date, and a withdrawal that began on September 19, two days later than normal.India received just 87% of its long-period average rainfall (LPA) between June and September – recording a 13% deficit – making 2026 the fourth-lowest monsoon since 2001 and the 13th lowest since 1901, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). LPA refers to the average amount of rainfall India receives during the monsoon calculated using data over a 50-year period.The deficit is sharply uneven. East and northeast India recorded their lowest monsoon rainfall at 1017.1 mm since 1901, while the southern peninsula experienced its fourth-lowest rainfall with 542.0 mm in the same period. While central India received normal rainfall, Maharashtra recorded an 18% deficit, with drought conditions affecting large parts of the state.The Maharashtra government has identified 265 of the state’s 358 talukas across 32 districts as drought-affected, that’s 74% of the state and announced relief measures for farmers, agricultural labourers and other vulnerable communities.Maharashtra chief minister Devendra Fadnavis said the measures followed an assessment of the drought situation and directed district collectors to begin conducting inspections to assess the extent of the damage in the affected talukas.In parts of Marathwada and northern Maharashtra, crop failures have already pushed farming families to seek work beyond their villages, with some travelling as far as Tamil Nadu in search of an income, The Indian Express reported on Thursday (October 1).As per the IMD, the monsoon’s advance over Maharashtra, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Odisha was delayed by seven to 10 days while its progress over Northeast was delayed by five to 10 days.The rainfall during June-September is also influenced by the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) and local low pressure systems, The Indian Express reported. Per the report, “rainfall activity continued due to the formation of low pressure systems. This year, there were 77 days against a normal of 57 days, when the country remained under the influence of low pressure systems,” explained Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director general, IMD.In a post on social media platform X, climate scientist Roxy Koll Matthew says the monsoon winds were relatively weak and less organised this season. “This gave a chance for low pressure systems from the Bay of Bengal and western disturbances to bring in rains, compensating rainfall deficits over some of the states.” Per a report explained by Down To Earth, the only source of rainfall and snowfall in the hills of north India are extratropical storms known as western disturbances. These form in the Mediterranean region and travel eastward to northern Bangladesh and south-eastern Nepal. It is a non-monsoonal precipitation pattern that induces low pressure systems in the lower layers of the atmosphere. The deficient monsoon comes amid rising global temperatures and a developing El Nino, which, according to the World Meteorological Organization, is expected to strengthen in the coming months and has been nicknamed “godzilla”, given its highest recorded temperature. Data shows sea surface temperatures in the El Nino of the Pacific Ocean are significantly above average towards the end of September. Temperatures reached 29.85°C on September 29, around 3.19°C above the 1991-2020 average, reflecting extremely warm conditions. This year, the world also experienced its hottest August on record as global sea surface temperatures reached an all-time high, while El Nino conditions fueled temperatures across vast areas of the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.India too recorded its warmest August, based on a recently published global climate report and data from the IMD. The report, prepared by climate science analysis platform Climate Brink, also projects that 2026 could become the warmest year on record. The Telegraph reported on September 9.In a press release on October 1, the IMD issued weather warnings for several parts of the country. Thunderstorms and lightning were forecast over Konkan and Goa, Andhra Pradesh and coastal Karnataka, while Arunachal Pradesh, Kerala, Tamil Nadu Assam, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura are expected to receive heavy rain accompanied by thunderstorms. The warnings are expected to be withdrawn by October 7.