Goa: The world is set to exceed the 1.5 degrees celsius warming threshold, but rapid and deep cuts in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions could limit the extent of the overshoot and make a return to that level by the end of the century possible, according to a new United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) Emissions Gap Report released on Tuesday. For India, this warning comes as the government has set new climate targets for 2035, including a 47% reduction in emissions intensity from 2005 levels and a commitment to source 60% of cumulative installed electricity capacity from non-fossil fuels.UNEP Emissions Gap ReportAccording to the UNEP EGR, global greenhouse gas emissions must fall 18% by 2030, 45% by 2035 and 69% by 2040 from 2025 levels to keep the possibility of bringing global warming back down to 1.5°C by the end of the century.“Every additional fraction of a degree and additional year of warming above 1.5°C increases climate impacts and risks, such as the deadly floods, heatwaves and wildfires that have plagued many nations this year,” said Inger Andersen, Executive Director of UNEP in a message on the report. “So, we must pull out all the stops to minimize peak warming and return to 1.5°C by the end of the century. This is possible.”As per the report, even if countries fully implement their current Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), global emissions would fall by only 5-8% by 2030 and 11-15% by 2035, relative to 2025 levels. The report’s NDC assessment includes pledges submitted by September 1, 2026.The report estimates that current country policies could lead to global warming of around 2.8°C over the course of this century. If countries implement their national pledges and sustain their efforts, warming could be limited to around 2.6°C. Even in the most optimistic scenarios assessed by UNEP, in which countries meet their NDCs and achieve additional net-zero targets, global warming would still reach around 2.1°C this century. In its EGR, the UNEP says accelerating renewable energy and improving energy efficiency are critical to closing the emissions gap. Since the Paris Agreement was adopted, global renewable electricity capacity has grown three times faster than anticipated, while solar photovoltaic capacity has expanded seven times faster.“A continuation of these trends, supported by additional policies, would bring the world on track to triple renewable energy capacity by 2030 and increase the share of wind and solar in electricity generation to levels consistent with the lowest possible 1.5°C overshoot scenario,” the report stated. Under its proposed benchmarks, global coal-fired electricity generation would need to fall by at least 75% by 2035 from 2025 levels, while methane emissions would need to decline by at least 25% lower than 2025 levels by 2030.Even the lowest-overshoot scenario would require the removal and permanent storage of roughly 320 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide over the course of this century.As per the EGR, currently, the six largest emitters in terms of total GHG emissions are China, the United States of America, India, the European Union, the Russian Federation and Indonesia- noting that in per capita terms, India and Indonesia are much lower emitters.India’s climate commitmentsIndia’s Union cabinet approved its updated NDC for 2031-2035 in March 2026. The targets include reducing the emissions intensity of gross domestic product (GDP) by 47% by 2035 from 2005 levels; ensuring that non-fossil fuel sources account for 60% of the country’s total installed electricity generation capacity, and building a carbon sink of 3.5 to 4 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent through forest and tree cover all by 2035, measured against the 2005 baseline.India’s NDC report says its emissions intensity declined by 36% between 2005 and 2020. It also reported that non-fossil sources accounted for 52.57% of installed electricity capacity by February 2026, successfully meeting the target five years ahead of the timeline. India also created a carbon sink of 2.29 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent through forest and tree cover between 2005 and 2021.The government says India’s new targets are built on earlier climate commitments and its long-term goal of achieving net-zero emissions by 2070. But India’s targets measure different things from the global reductions set out in the UNEP report. The UN’s call for a 45% cut refers to total global greenhouse gas emissions in 2035 compared with 2025. India’s 47% target, by contrast, measures emissions intensity against 2005 levels.Climate targets may not reduce overall emissionsAccording to this report by the Climate Council, an independent, non-profit Australian climate organisation that provides evidence-based information on climate change, emission intensity refers to the amount of greenhouse gas per unit of GDP. So reducing emission intensity means producing less pollution per unit of GDP. However, if GDP grows, so does the total number of emissions. “A more concrete measure of emission reduction is an ‘absolute reduction’. That‘s the reduction in the total emissions. To tackle climate change, total emissions must go down so an absolute reduction is the most relevant measure.” Unlike an absolute emissions-reduction target, which specifies a reduction in total greenhouse gas emissions, India’s 2035 NDC does not set a target for reducing its overall emissions. Instead, it combines an emissions-intensity target with targets for non-fossil electricity capacity and carbon sinks.Climate Action Tracker, an independent climate research consortium, said in its September 2026 assessment that India’s new targets could be achieved under existing policies without additional mitigation measures. Even if India meets its 47% emissions-intensity target, its total emissions could continue to rise as its economy grows. The target, therefore, does not amount to a commitment to reduce India’s total emissions.“India’s 2035 NDC is moving away from a 1.5°C pathway by allowing emissions to continue to rise even above its current policy trajectory and widening the gap between current commitments and a Paris Agreement–aligned pathway,” the report stated.