New Delhi: India led the world in terms of absolute growth (when compared to the last year) in greenhouse gas emissions in 2024, according to the United Nations Emission Gap Report this year.The report, released before the 30th Conference of Parties (COP) on climate change on November 4, noted that nations are still not on track to limit global warming to 1.5°C. However, it is still imperative that countries take rapid action to limit emissions and, in turn, rising temperatures, United Nations officials said.‘Off Target’The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) releases the Emission Gap Report every year, just before the UN’s annual conference on climate change. The report monitors the differences in current national commitments (such as the Nationally Determined Contributions submitted by different member countries under the Paris Agreement) and calculates the emissions pathway needed to limit global warming to 1.5°C. Per the UNEP, each edition investigates ways to close this emissions gap.The UNEP released this year’s Emissions Gap Report on November 4. Titled “Off Target”, it presented sobering statistics.But first, some good news. The predicted global temperature rise over the course of this century due to global warming has fallen – but only slightly. Global temperatures are now predicted to reach 2.3-2.5°C if all existing NDCs are implemented: this is down from 2.6-2.8°C projected by last year’s report. Current policies put the world on track for 2.8°C of warming, compared to 3.1°C in last year’s report. This is an improvement, though only trifling.Now, the bad.Updates in the methodology used in the report this year accounted for 0.1°C of this improvement. The withdrawal of the US from the Paris Agreement will cancel out this progress by the same amount (0.1°C).Global GHG emissions reached another record-high: 57.7 GtCO2e (giga tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent) in 2024. This is a 2.3% increase from levels in 2023.The world is still off target to limit global warming to between 1.5°C to 2°C. The global temperature average across decades will exceed 1.5°C, at least temporarily, due to lack of action and ambition from world leaders, the report said. Countries will need to take “rapid and immediate action” to keep overshoot to around 0.3°C, giving the world the best chance of returning to 1.5°C by 2100, it added.Also read: Urgency, Implications and India: A Conversation with J. Srinivasan on Climate ChangeThe report – which incorporates latest NDC announcements into its analysis – noted that despite the requirement in the Paris Agreement to submit new NDCs by February 2025, only 64 parties covering 63% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions submitted or announced new NDCs by the cut-off date of September 30 for the report. Though the new NDCs and policy updates of the G20 members will lower expected GHG emissions in 2035, the gap is still large: reductions will be “relatively small and surrounded by significant uncertainty”, the report noted.Per the report, the G20 group – which India is a part of – accounted for 77% of global GHG emissions in 2024, excluding the African Union. Most of the G20 countries recorded an increase in emissions in 2024. The G20 group of countries is not collectively on track to achieve even its 2030 NDC targets, let alone new 2035 targets.India leads absolute growth in emissionsCurrently, India is among the six largest emitters of total greenhouse gas emissions, along with China, the United States of America, the European Union, the Russian Federation and Indonesia. The highest absolute growth in emissions – when compared to its growth in emissions the previous year, 2023 – occurred in India, followed by China and Indonesia.Also read: India’s Latest Climate Report to UN Relies on Questionable Data To Offset EmissionsIn terms of growth rate, Indonesia showed the highest increase (4.6%), followed by India (3.6%). Emissions growth in China (0.5% in 2024) was lower than the previous year. Many countries outside of G20 also showed significant increases in emissions in 2024. Emissions in the European Union, meanwhile, decreased by 2.1% in 2024.However, GHG emissions per capita (which takes into account the population of the country) were above the world average of 6.4 tons of CO2 equivalent (tCO2e) in the United States, the Russian Federation, China and the European Union. The GHG emissions per capita for Indonesia and India, however, were “significantly” below the world average, the report noted.And like in previous years, emissions inequality “continues to exist within countries, with the richest individuals driving emissions with their consumption and investments, and few policies addressing this globally,” per the report.India’s missed NDC updateHere’s what India has promised under its current NDC, which it submitted to the UN in August 2022:Reduce greenhouse gas emissions per unit of GDP (emissions intensity) by 45% from 2005 levels by 2030Increase the share of non-fossil energy in total power capacity to 50% by 2030As part of its first NDC, India had already promised to increase the carbon sink volume by an additional 2.5-3 GtCO2e. Per the Emissions Gap Report of this year, four out of five studies showed that India would likely meet its current NDC target with existing policies. It also showed that India has overachieved by 15% on its target so far.However, among the G-20 countries, India’s net-zero target does not have transparent information on carbon removal, and there is no annual reporting of this either, the report said. India has also not yet submitted a new and updated NDC – as it should have this year. This, along with the fact that India recorded the highest absolute growth in emissions in 2024, could put the country under the scanner at COP30, The Telegraph quoted environmental experts as saying.‘No reason to surrender’“Scientists tell us that a temporary overshoot above 1.5 degrees is now inevitable – starting, at the latest, in the early 2030s. And the path to a livable future gets steeper by the day,” said UN Secretary-General António Guterres in a press statement about the report. “But this is no reason to surrender. It’s a reason to step up and speed up. 1.5 degrees by the end of the century remains our North Star. And the science is clear: this goal is still within reach. But only if we meaningfully increase our ambition.”“Nations have had three attempts to deliver promises made under the Paris Agreement, and each time they have landed off target,” said Inger Andersen, Executive Director of UNEP. “While national climate plans have delivered some progress, it is nowhere near fast enough, which is why we still need unprecedented emissions cuts in an increasingly tight window, with an increasingly challenging geopolitical backdrop.”“But it is still possible – just,” she added. “Proven solutions already exist. From the rapid growth in cheap renewable energy to tackling methane emissions, we know what needs to be done. Now is the time for countries to go all in and invest in their future with ambitious climate action – action that delivers faster economic growth, better human health, more jobs, energy security and resilience.”Richard Black, Director of Policy and Strategy, Ember, said, “While an important signal, NDCs only tell part of the story. National renewable energy plans paint a more optimistic picture of economies embracing the clean energy transition, and deployment rates are more optimistic still. Climate change is just one of the drivers behind bulging renewables pipelines – and the other drivers, such as energy security and affordability, are arguably stronger in these geopolitically uncertain times. The evidence is now convincing that whatever a government’s motivation – economic growth, security, cleaner air, more jobs, import independence – the clean energy economy offers more opportunities than sticking with the fossil fuel model.”