New Delhi: The India Meteorological Department (IMD), in its monthly outlook issued on Monday (August 31), predicted rainfall across the country to be below 91% of long-period average (LPA) of 167.9 mm during September.The press release stated that many parts of the country are likely to receive “below-normal rainfall” in September, although parts of northwest, northeast, east, east-central India and southeast peninsular India could receive “normal to above-normal rainfall.”Meanwhile, “above-normal maximum temperatures” will persist in most parts of the country.Minimum temperatures are also expected to remain above normal in most regions, except parts of northwest, west-central and northeast India, where they are likely to be normal to below normal.IMD’s forecast comes in the wake of the hottest August recorded in India since 1901. The month also recorded a a 16% rainfall deficit, according to the IMD.The department attributed the continuing weather conditions partly to El Niño, with strong El Niño conditions prevailing over the equatorial Pacific Ocean, raising sea surface temperatures across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. These conditions are expected to strengthen further in the coming months, IMD said.The forecast comes as the southwest monsoon enters its final month.The prospect of a rainfall-deficient September, a typically important month for rainfall-dependent agriculture, could put additional pressure on crops that are still in critical stages of development, especially after sub-optimal rainfall conditions in August.The country received 213.3 mm of rainfall during August, as per the IMD report, making it the seventh-lowest August rainfall total since 2001. The department said that four low-pressure systems formed during the month and persisted for a cumulative 26 days, however, their rainfall activity remained largely confined to the Indo-Gangetic plains.Furthermore, India recorded a mean temperature of 28.01°C in August, against the normal of 27.34°C, making it the warmest August in more than a century. The average minimum temperature was also at a record high of 24.36°C, compared with the normal of 23.68°C, according to the IMD.Below-normal rainfall forecast could have far-reaching implications for agriculture, water resources, hydropower generation, ecosystem sustainability and drinking water availability. Rainfall deficit could also increase the risk of heat stress in different regions.The department suggested timely measures such as water conservation, efficient management of available resources and better agricultural planning to combat these possible effects.The forecast added that neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions, which are present over the Indian Ocean, are likely to continue through the month of September, according to its Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecast System. However, forecasts from international climate centres suggest that the neutral IOD could transition towards positive IOD conditions from September onwards.This means that ocean temperatures in the tropical Indian Ocean can shift from a balanced sea surface temperature difference to one that favours increased moisture and rainfall in the region.