Panjim: India’s green cover declined by 5.6 percentage points in the last 25 years, while non-green landscapes expanded across large parts of the country, as per an analysis by Climate Trends, a research-based consulting and capacity building initiative, published on October 23. The analysis also found that areas with less greenery were consistently hotter in summer than areas with vegetation, suggesting that tree cover kept local heat temperatures down. The non-peer reviewed analysis, titled Assessment of Green Cover Dynamics and Their Influence on Summer Temperature across India Using MODIS Land Cover and ERA5 Reanalysis Data, found that green cover declined from approximately 36.95% of the area assessed in 2001 to 31.35% in 2025. Over this period, land without greenery increased from 63.05% to 68.65%, meaning more of India’s land had little or no vegetation.The analysis classified land into two categories: green cover and non-green cover. Green cover included forests, shrublands, wetlands, savannas and other areas with natural or semi-natural vegetation. Non-green cover included croplands, urban areas, and built-up land, areas with a mix of crops and natural vegetation, barren lands, water bodies and permanent snow and ice. The analysis found that green areas were 1°C to 2.5°C cooler compared to areas with no vegetation. The study attributed the cooling effect of vegetation to processes such as evapotranspiration (the process of transferring moisture from the earth to the atmosphere by evaporation of water and transpiration from plants), shade and better moisture retention in the ground. Green-cover loss associated with rising temperaturesThe analysis says that areas that lost green cover saw an average summer temperature rise of 0.26°C indicating that replacing vegetation with little or no greenery was linked to higher temperatures.However, even though green areas remained cooler, it also found that temperatures increased over time suggesting that land-cover changes are only one factor influencing temperature trends, with broader regional climate warming also playing a role.The analysis assessed land-use and land-cover changes using MODIS land-cover products and ERA5-Land temperature data. It combined multi-temporal land-cover information with seasonal temperature observations to examine changes in green-cover extent and their relationship with spatial patterns of summer warming.‘Vegetation is not merely an ecological asset’Author Palak Balyan, Research Lead at Climate Trends, stated in the analysis that vegetation should be recognised as a critical component of India’s climate-adaptation infrastructure.“The findings clearly demonstrate that vegetation is not merely an ecological asset; it is an important component of India’s climate-adaptation infrastructure. The persistent 1-2.5°C summer temperature difference between green and non-green landscapes highlights the role of vegetation in regulating local thermal conditions through evapotranspiration, shading and moisture retention,” Balyan said.She added that protecting existing natural vegetation should be treated as an adaptation priority, particularly in regions experiencing both green-cover loss and rising summer temperatures.The findings also come against the backdrop of the UNEP’s Emissions Gap Report 2026, which warns that current climate pledges fall short of what is needed to limit warming to 1.5°C. While deep emissions cuts are essential to limiting global warming, the Climate Trends analysis highlights the importance of protecting green cover to help moderate local temperatures and suggests that restoring green cover alone cannot offset the effects of global warming. These two findings point to the same challenges: reducing greenhouse gases driving climate change and preserving vegetation that can help mitigate its local impacts.Another similar assessment of land-cover changes and their impact on surface temperatures across India, published this month by scientists including Pankaj Kumar, found that forests were consistently cooler than nearby open landscapes between 2001 and 2022, with temperatures around 1.3°C to 2.2°C lower in forests, particularly during summer. Green-cover loss is uneven across IndiaThe Climate Trends analysis found regional differences in both green cover and summer temperatures across India. Warming was more pronounced in northwestern and northern India, while some parts of central and southern India experienced localised cooling. Green-cover loss was concentrated in western India, the Indo-Gangetic Plain, parts of central India and the peninsula, while green-cover gains were recorded in parts of the Northeast, the Himalayan foothills and scattered areas of southern and eastern India.Protecting vegetation as a climate-adaptation priorityIn a statement, S K Dhaka, Professor of Atmospheric Physics at Delhi University, said, “The warming observed even within areas that remained continuously green shows that large-scale climatic forcing continues to influence regional temperatures.”He added that India needed a dual strategy: preventing further loss of established vegetation while implementing scientifically targeted restoration in heat-vulnerable regions. Such efforts, he said, should be accompanied by stronger action on water management, urban planning and greenhouse gas emissions.Restoration must go beyond increasing tree coverAarti Khosla, Founder-Director of Climate Trends, said the analysis put a number on the relationship between vegetation loss and rising temperatures.“The study puts a number on something we’ve long argued, that vegetation is not a biodiversity afterthought, but a climate-adaptation infrastructure. Where green cover has disappeared, temperatures have risen with it, and that is a cost India’s communities are already paying for,” Khosla said.She also pointed to the gap between international biodiversity commitments and their implementation, arguing that protecting and restoring ecosystems was important both for conserving biodiversity and for keeping landscapes cooler.This highlights a need to consider the ecological quality and function of restored landscapes rather than just treating an increase in tree cover alone as sufficient. The study recommends maintaining existing vegetation, preventing green-cover loss and promoting ecological restoration as integral components of climate adaptation and sustainable land management.