Srinagar: Jammu and Kashmir is facing the prospect of a difficult summer this year as an acute winter precipitation deficit and unprecedented warmth has accelerated snowmelt and triggered the premature blooming of almond trees across Kashmir Valley.In early warning signs of mounting climate stress in the Himalayan region, the summer capital Srinagar recorded its warmest February on record with the maximum temperature shooting up 10° above normal on Saturday (February 22) to settle at 21° Celsius.Mukhtar Ahmad, a meteorologist, said that Kashmir has witnessed record-breaking temperatures in January and February this year which will cause rapid melting of glaciers while agriculture and horticulture seasons will be advanced by a month due to early bloom.“J&K was not impacted by many significant western disturbances this year and the prevailing dry spell has led to record-breaking increase in temperature. This is going to impact the farmers while forest fires are also likely to increase,” Ahmad who heads the Indian Meteorological Department’s Srinagar station said.He said that the dearth of western disturbances which are crucial for precipitation events over India and Pakistan has warmed up Kashmir. It has also added weight to previous scientific studies that the Himalayan region is increasingly facing snow droughts.A 2025 study found that snowfall in the north western Himalayas has decreased by 25% in the past five years compared to the 40-year average between 1980 to 2020 while global warming has caused the Western Himalayas to warm up twice since 2000 as compared to the rest of the country.In the ongoing session of the legislative assembly, the government disclosed on February 13 that J&K recorded 50% deficit in winter precipitation for the second consecutive year this year with Kashmir facing more deficit than Jammu.“Kashmir is witnessing an abnormal heat spell which is strikingly similar to what has been normally recorded in mid-April,” Faizan Arif, an independent weather forecaster based in Srinagar, told The Wire.The chances of snowfall are “negligent” by the end of February and the month is likely to go down as one of the driest in the history of Kashmir, Arif said.Ski resort clocks changesAt the ski resort of Gulmarg which has already clocked an all time high temperature on February 20 when the mercury settled at 11.6 degrees celsius, over nine degrees above normal, the absence of the chill has dampened the spirits of snow sport enthusiasts.Tanveer Lone, a prominent snowboarder from Gulmarg, said that the quality of snow at the north Kashmir ski resort was “very poor”, “Snow is melting very fast compared to last year. The slopes are more slushy than powdery. Such conditions used to prevail during springtime at the end of March”.The dramatic rise in temperature has cast a shadow on the sixth Khelo India Winter Games which started last Monday amid sunny skies. More than 400 athletes from 30 states and Union territories are participating in the four-day event.Inaugurating the games, J&K chief minister Omar Abdullah on Monday batted for climate adaptation strategies to save the valley’s nascent snow sports culture from global warming.Gulmarg: Participants during the women’s ski mountaineering vertical event at the ‘Khelo India Winter Games 2026’, in Gulmarg, Baramulla district, Jammu and Kashmir, Tuesday, Feb. 24, 2026. Photo: PTI/S Irfan.“There is no better place for winter games in the country than Gulmarg. But climate change is real. Like other countries, we need to generate artificial snow here to safeguard winter sports,” he said.Vegetation suffersThe climate vagaries have also increased the worries for apple and almond growers in J&K who have been facing a sharp decline in profits over the years.At many places in Kashmir, almond trees which normally flowered from mid-March to early April have blossomed prematurely and if the temperature falls due to precipitation in coming days it could hit the final production, experts at Sher-e-Kashmir University of Agriculture Science and Technology in Srinagar (SKUAST) said.Kashmir registered a downfall in almond production from 15,183 tonnes in 2006–07 to 9,898 tonnes in 2019–20 while the area under almond trees also shrunk, per official data, due to multiple reasons including some farmers moving to the more lucrative apple cultivation.Ghulam Mohammad Sheikh, an almond grower from Kakwring village in the Budgam district of central Kashmir, said that apple cultivation was not an ideal option for him as his area has suffered repeated droughts in recent years.“Apple trees need regular watering during summer months but our area doesn’t have any irrigation facility,” he said.Premature blooming of almond trees has increased the worries of Ghulam Mohammad Sheikh, a farmer from Kakwring village in the Budgam district of central Kashmir. Photo: The WireThe traditional apple trees in Kashmir require some 1200-1500 chill hours during winter when the temperature should stay between 0-7 degrees celsius to allow the tree to rest and prepare for the bloom.“If this rest period is disrupted, it impacts the fruit set and final harvest. But our apple orchards are years away from any detrimental effects in terms of meeting chill hours,” said Ashiq Pandit who heads the Department of Food Sciences at the SKUAST.However, Pandit said that the increase in temperature causes trees to come out of dormancy, “If the temperature goes down, the buds and flowers are susceptible to injury”.Arif said that the ‘false spring’ in J&K could lead to a sharp rise in water levels in rivers and their tributaries which may have negative consequences for agriculture and horticulture sectors.“In recent years, we have witnessed repeated instances of flash flooding on paddy farms in early spring. If a strong western disturbance arrives in the coming days, however, it will affect the blooms,” he said, adding that the abundance of water in the rivers at this time of year could lead to a complete lack of it in the summer, when farming activities pick up.