New Delhi: The PPAC, or the Union government’s Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell, has reported the cost of India’s crude basket as $86.31 a barrel in June 2026 (until June 24). This is a hefty fall from $114.48 a barrel in April. Since India imports about 85% of its crude oil, when global oil prices rose due to the US/Israel war on Iran, India had to pay more to secure supplies.At the peak of the crisis, global oil prices surged 40% to trade near $100 a barrel since the war restricted shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. However, now that tensions have eased, that extra fear has disappeared, so crude prices have dropped.But will it mean prices of petrol, diesel and natural gas supplied to homes (primarily domestic-use and commercial cylinders) will also be lowered?Fuel price hikesBeginning May 15, state-run oil-marketing companies started raising fuel prices, which continued over multiple rounds. By early June, petrol prices were about 7.8% higher than before the war. Diesel prices were hiked about 8.6% over the same period.Meanwhile, domestic LPG costs increased by Rs 50 a cylinder. Commercial LPG absorbed much more of the cost increase. Prices were revised upward several times. The price of a 19-kg cylinder, used in commercial establishments such as restaurants and canteens, was hiked by Rs 42 on June 1, following three previous hikes amounting to over Rs 1,300 since March 1. Aviation fuel prices were hiked significantly upwards as well. The government had even proposed austerity measures for citizens to curtail consumption as supplies came under pressure.Each of the above cateogries of consumer faces immense distress due to the price hikes – restaurants reported closures, less well-off consumers shifted to firewood/cow dung-cake stoves and the aviation sector said it was on the “brink of closure” too.Recent government reactionsEarlier in June, Union Petroleum Minister Hardeep Singh Puri said crude prices are expected to moderate, but he was ambivalent about retail and consumer prices more recently.“If we look at the situation in real terms, there has been no no increase in petrol and diesel prices in the country,” Puri said on June 20 at an event in Sonbhadra, Uttar Pradesh. He said the Modi government lowered excise duties on petrol and diesel in November 2021, May 2022 and again recently, which he said absorbed around Rs 10 per litre on both petrol and diesel, the Times of India reports.Also read: Why Govt’s Move to Cut Petrol, Diesel Excise Duty Isn’t Really a Relief for the Common PeopleWhile it is true that crude is part of what the consumers price of fuels, taxes account for a large share of the pump price. As a result, a 10% fall in crude does not produce a 10% fall in retail prices. When crude fell sharply in the 2014 to 2016 period (and also in 2020), the Union government raised excise, preventing consumers from seeing the full benefit of lower crude prices at the time.Yet the minister also indicated that petrol and diesel prices could be reduced if lower-priced crude oil purchased recently reaches refiners. “At present, companies have stocks of crude oil bought at higher prices. When crude purchased at lower prices reaches them, there is a possibility of a reduction in fuel prices,” he said.Puri also emphasised the “Rs 1,000 crore a day” losses for fuel marketing companies on account of fuel prices remaining “unchanged” for four years.As for aviation, on June 25, Mint reports, Union Civil Aviation Minister K. Ram Mohan Naidu said the government was monitoring ATF prices and was in discussions with airlines to assess whether the recent fall in fuel costs represents a lasting trend or only a temporary correction. He said airlines would be asked to reassess surge charges and additional fare components if the downturn continued.The government reviews ATF prices every fortnight. The government recently extended emergency credit to airlines. A price stabilisation fund of Rs 10,000 crore was also extended.For now, it seems, the relief from prices cooling globally will accrue to India’s import bill, inflation outlook and external balances.Demands on behalf of consumersPavan Khera, chief of the media and publicity department for the Congress party, wrote on X, “How long will the public have to wait for the government reverse the latest fuel price hike??’ Congress party leader and Karnataka home minister Priyank Kharge wrote on X about the need to lower costs for consumers:Crude oil $138 : Petrol price = ₹101Crude oil $69 : Petrol price = ₹112Truly a masterstroke on taxpayers.When is Modi Ji planning to reduce fuel prices?— Priyank Kharge / ಪ್ರಿಯಾಂಕ್ ಖರ್ಗೆ (@PriyankKharge) June 26, 2026