New Delhi: Rice prices have climbed by more than 10% in parts of India’s domestic market over the past few weeks, with traders and millers pointing to tighter availability of paddy as the market moves between crop cycles. The increase comes as a deficient monsoon raises fresh questions over supplies of the next crop.The increase in rice prices has been particularly pronounced in premium non-basmati varieties such as Sona Masuri, Ponni and Masuri, The Hindu BusinessLine reported. Swarna rice, had risen to Rs 34 a kg ex-mill from Rs 30, a rise of over 13 percent, in the preceding few weeks.The price movement is taking place despite the government’s estimate of record paddy production in the 2025-26 crop year. Industry representatives cited by the newspaper have instead pointed to the availability of paddy with millers and the timing of crop arrivals.M. Madan Prakash, president of the Tamil Nadu Agri Commodities Exporters Association, told BusinessLine that millers were reporting a slight shortage of paddy. Rajesh Jain Paharia, a New Delhi-based exporter, attributed the increase primarily to the supply-demand situation.There is also a seasonal squeeze in supplies. The arrivals of the zaid and rabi crops have largely ended, while the next kharif crop is expected only after October, leaving a period in which the market has to rely on existing stocks, according to the newspaper.The Union government’s higher minimum support price for common paddy has added to the cost environment. The MSP for the 2026-27 crop was raised to Rs 2,441 per quintal from Rs 2,369.Rainfall could determine whether the current pressure remains limited to the seasonal gap or extends into the next crop cycle. The monsoon was 11% below normal as of Friday, BusinessLine reported. A Delhi-based analyst cited by the newspaper said deficient rainfall had contributed to the increase in rice prices.The analyst also pointed to another possible source of demand. With the area under maize low, rice could see increased demand from ethanol producers. Prices of basmati rice have also been rising, the analyst said.Government cereal-market data cited by BusinessLine indicate the broader movement in the market. Cereal prices increased from Rs 3,977.7 per quintal on June 15 to Rs 4,302 on August 5. The price had reached Rs 4,078 on July 16 before easing.The increase in rice prices comes as several other components of a home-cooked meal have also become more expensive. Crisil Intelligence’s latest Roti Rice Rate report, released on August 7, found that the cost of a vegetarian thali rose 4 percent year-on-year in July, while a non-vegetarian thali became 9 percent more expensive.Crisil’s August report said onion prices were 20% higher in July than a year earlier, driven by the arrival of higher-priced stored rabi stocks. Unseasonal rainfall and hailstorms in Maharashtra during March and April reportedly damaged the late-season crop and stored inventories, further tightening supplies.Vegetable oil and LPG cylinder prices were 11% and 10% higher, respectively, on a year-on-year basis. Crisil attributed the increases primarily to supply disruptions and elevated energy prices resulting from the ongoing West Asia conflict.These increases were partly offset by lower prices of some vegetables. Potato prices fell 12% year-on-year in July, while tomato prices were down 2%. Crisil attributed the decline in potato prices to a 2-3% increase in rabi production following an expansion in acreage. Tomato prices remained lower because prolonged high temperatures during February and March delayed the arrival of the summer crop, shifting the supply cycle and resulting in higher market arrivals in July.The increase in the cost of a non-vegetarian thali was steeper because chicken prices rose. Broiler prices were estimated to be 14% higher year-on-year in July, and since broiler accounts for roughly half the cost of a non-vegetarian thali, the increase had a significant impact. Crisil attributed the rise to higher feed costs as well as a low-base effect associated with the shift of the Shravan month from July in 2025 to August this year.The month-on-month movement was less pronounced. The cost of a vegetarian thali rose 2% in July, while the non-vegetarian thali was unchanged. Onion and potato prices rose 23% and 4%, respectively, from June, but lower tomato prices and broadly stable prices of other inputs limited the increase. Broiler prices, meanwhile, fell an estimated 2% during the month as demand moderated.